The deeper we get into the season, the more hesitant I am about starting players on Thursday night. This week, we have the Green Bay Packers hosting the Tennessee Titans.
Allen Lazard entered the season as the Packers’ de facto WR1. Following Christian Watson’s Week 10 breakout, is that still the case? Can fantasy football managers start Lazard against the Titans on Thursday night?
Allen Lazard’s Fantasy Outlook Against the Titans
When a player isn’t a big-name guy and isn’t on any of your fantasy teams, sometimes his performance can go a bit under the radar, at least for you. That’s what I just experienced in researching Lazard’s performance to write this article.
I knew Lazard was solid, but his 13.8 PPR fantasy points per game has him inside the top 24. Prior to last week, Lazard enjoyed a six-week stretch of at least 11.5 fantasy points.
Sadly for fantasy managers, Lazard only caught three of four targets for 45 yards in Week 10. His 7.5 fantasy points were his lowest of the season.
It would be easy to dismiss this as a random down week, except for the very obvious reason as to why this occurred: Christian Watson. The Packers’ rookie had his breakout performance, catching four of eight targets for 107 yards and three (yes, three!) touchdowns.
Of course, there’s a 99.99% chance Watson never has three touchdowns on four receptions again. But that doesn’t mean he hasn’t potentially overtaken Lazard as the Packers’ WR1.
Lazard still led the Packers in snaps and routes run last week, but Watson was close on his heels. Watson ran 21 routes. Lazard ran 24. And it was Watson with the eight targets to Lazard’s four.
There’s also the added variable of Randall Cobb’s likely return on Thursday night. The Packers activated him from IR on Wednesday. If he wasn’t poised to play, they would’ve just left him on IR.
Should Fantasy Managers Start Lazard?
Watson has certainly earned Aaron Rodgers’ trust. However, Cobb’s had it for over a decade. Cobb’s return definitely impacts Lazard’s value.
Another problem is Rodgers can no longer support more than one fantasy-relevant receiver. Now, the reason for that isn’t his lack of ability. Rather, it’s the Packers’ incredibly slow pace of play.
The Packers average 28.5 seconds between snaps, the fourth-slowest rate in the league. They run no huddle just 4% of the time. Coincidentally, their opponent this week, the Titans, are actually even slower. Tennessee takes 28.8 seconds between snaps and runs no huddle 3% of the time.
Rodgers averages just 28.75 pass attempts per game in wins. That includes last week’s game against the Cowboys, where he attempted just 20 passes despite negative game script for the majority of the game. These are not your classic air-it-out Packers.
MORE: Should You Start Christian Watson vs. Tennessee?
On a more positive note, the Titans are downright awful against the pass. They allow the fourth-most fantasy points to wide receivers. More specifically, they can’t stop the deep ball, allowing a 50.9% completion rate on downfield passes.
That is a boon for Lazard, as his 12.3 average depth of target is 27th in the league. Additionally, his 15 deep targets are seventh-most amongst wide receivers. Add in the fact that the Titans are elite against the run, and we have the perfect recipe for a pass-heavy game plan against a run-funnel defense. Perhaps some higher receiving yards are on the docket for Underdog Fantasy this week.
Lazard checks in as our WR14 in our Week 11 wide receiver rankings. That’s really high. And I can’t say I strongly disagree. This matchup is as good as it gets.
The way to beat the Titans is through the air. Accordingly, Green Bay should look to attack that particular weakness on Tennessee’s defense. Even with Watson as the presumptive WR1 going forward, there should be enough for Lazard to continue producing top-24 numbers. Given the amount of every-week starters injured or on bye, fantasy managers should feel good about starting Lazard on Thursday night.