Soon-to-be former AAC foes battle, and our ECU vs. Cincinnati prediction gets you ready for Friday night action. The Bearcats are the class of the American, but does the ECU passing attack have enough juice to keep pace?
ECU vs. Cincinnati Betting Preview
- Spread
Cincinnati (-5) - Moneyline
Cincinnati (-205); ECU (+175) - Over/Under
52 points - Game time
7 p.m. ET - Location
Nippert Stadium, Cincinnati, OH - Predicted weather at kickoff
54 degrees, mostly cloudy, 10-12 mph winds - How to watch
fuboTV, ESPNU
Top DFS Picks and Fantasy Plays
- QB Holton Ahlers, ECU ($10,000)
- QB Ben Bryant, Cincinnati ($9,200)
- RB Keaton Mitchell, ECU ($9,600)
- RB Charles McClelland, Cincinnati ($8,500)
- RB Corey Kiner, Cincinnati ($5,500)
- RB Ryan Montgomery, Cincinnati ($5,300)
- RB Marlon Gunn Jr., ECU ($4,900)
- WR Tyler Scott, Cincinnati ($10,000)
- WR C.J. Johnson, ECU ($8,700)
- WR Isaiah Winstead, ECU ($8,500)
- WR Tre Tucker, Cincinnati ($6,500)
- WR Jadon Thompson, Cincinnati ($5,900)
- WR Nick Mardner, Cincinnati ($5,800)
- WR Jsi Hatfield, ECU ($5,500)
- TE Ryan Jones, ECU ($5,800)
- TE Josh Whyle, Cincinnati ($5,300)
You may be tempted to grab ECU QB Holton Ahlers because of his success in big games this and any other previous season. However, there are much better options on your Friday night slate. In fact, miss grabbing any of the ECU offensive players because Cincinnati’s defense is the best in the conference in limiting yards per play.
With a stymying defense and an improving ground game, look for a Cincinnati running back to carry your roster in DFS. Charles McClelland has shown his breakaway speed and can make the most out of his carries.
ECU’s front seven isn’t one of the best in the conference in terms of penetrating the offensive line, averaging just the sixth-most tackles for loss in the American, a mid-tier figure around the country. That means McClelland will have plenty of rushing lanes and time to make his decisions from the backfield.
Grab McClelland and fill your roster with Fresno State and USC players elsewhere.
Prediction for ECU vs. Cincinnati
It may be par for the course at this point, but Cincinnati’s pass defense has played lights out this season. They’re limiting teams to the fewest yards per pass (6.17) and the lowest completion percentage against (53.8%) in the conference. Those are both top-15 figures across the country as well.
The Bearcats’ pass defense is led by longtime standouts Arquon Bush and Ja’Von Hicks. Both defensive backs are five-year players and multi-year starters in the Queen City. More importantly, they’ve played against Ahlers more than anyone else in the country. And they’re a perfect 4-0, to date, against ECU.
MORE: Week 11 College Football Picks and Predictions
Ahlers, the left-handed gunslinger, has taken over at times during his career, but most importantly, he is winless against Cincinnati in four attempts.
Lifetime against Cincinnati, Ahlers sports a 73.9 passer rating. However, he’s getting the benefit of an offensive explosion back in 2019 for that rating.
- 2021 (L, 35-13): 19-38, 228 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
- 2020 (L, 55-17): 9-20, 90 yards, 0 TD, 3 INT
- 2019 (L, 46-43): 32-52, 535 yards, 4 TD, 1 INT
- 2018 (L, 56-6): 8-22, 184, 1 TD, 1 INT
His performance in 2019 looks more and more like an anomaly when looking at the whole body of work against top-notch secondaries. With a completion percentage and yards per attempt well below his season average in each of the remaining three games against the Bearcats, it’s safe to assume that kind of performance against a top-ranked Cincinnati pass defense in 2022.
ECU’s defense is a mid-tier unit as well, meaning Cincinnati’s offense also has an edge. The Pirates have lacked the ability to penetrate opposing offensive lines in 2022, and Cincinnati’s line has produced the fewest allowed tackles for loss in the conference.
At every turn, Cincinnati’s roster is deeper and the sum of all their parts is much greater than ECU’s. The Bearcats board the ship and ride the Pirates out of town.
Prediction: Cincinnati 31, ECU 20