Marcus Mariota’s fantasy football value so far in the 2022 season has been a roller coaster. As he faces off with the Carolina Panthers for the second time in three weeks, should fantasy managers trust him this week in their lineups?
What Is Marcus Mariota’s Fantasy Outlook for Week 10?
When you look at the fantasy outputs from Mariota this year, the scoring inconsistency is apparent. Overall on the season, he sits as the QB19, averaging 15.2 fantasy points per game.
Mariota sits in a tier alongside Tom Brady, Jimmy Garoppolo, Trevor Lawrence, and Jared Goff — all averaging between 15 and 16 fantasy points per game. That group occupies the QB15-to-19 range in average fantasy points scored per week.
What we have seen from Mariota is a wide range of outcomes. His weekly scoring ranges from 3.86 to 24.16 fantasy points. There have been two scores under 10, two over 20, and five scores in between. The first thing to note is that one of those two 20-point performances came against the Panthers in their Week 8 matchup.
That performance stands out because it was Mariota’s best performance this season as a passer in terms of passing yards and touchdowns. It was one of just three games in which Mariota has thrown for more than 200 yards and his only game over 250. It was also one of two games where a defense picked off Mariota twice this year.
An element to consider this week is the potential for poor weather in Carolina during this game. The precipitation is expected to build during the day, and there is a high chance of heavy rain leading into and during the game itself. The wind is not likely to have a huge impact, but when combined with the rain, it could stifle the passing games in this matchup.
Mariota’s Rushing Ability Increases Both His Floor and Ceiling for Fantasy
However, if this game does become a run-heavy game dictated by the weather, that somewhat plays into the hands of Mariota. The Falcons’ QB is averaging 6.67 rushing attempts and 33.8 rushing yards per game. He also has three rushing touchdowns in the first nine games this season.
Those yards on the ground boost Mariota’s floor and means he does not need to consistently throw for over 200 yards and multiple touchdowns to have 12-team Superflex value. We could see Mariota handling plenty of rushing attempts if this game becomes one where it’s too difficult to pass.
MORE: Week 10 Fantasy Football Rest-of-Season Rankings
While he has not had double-digit rushing attempts since Week 1, he is more than capable of handling multiple carries. Additionally, he is always a threat around the goal line on designed QB runs, option-type plays, and play-action rollouts. Therefore, the weather impacts Mariota less in this game than it would QBs who are more reliant on the passing game.
Additionally, it makes going higher than 30.5 rushing yards in terms of Mariota’s Underdog Fantasy Pick’em projections intriguing. He has topped that number four times in the past five weeks. The rain should mean this is a game we see Mariota willing to use his legs plenty in Week 10.
Should Fantasy Managers Start Mariota in Week 10?
Heading into Thursday, Mariota sits as the QB16 in Tommy Garrett’s Week 10 QB Fantasy Rankings. That nicely sums up the value that Mariota carries this week.
It would be optimistic to look at Mariota as a starting option in 12 or 14-team 1QB leagues. However, in 16-team, 1QB leagues, he is a borderline starting option in this matchup. Additionally, in Superflex formats, Mariota remains a solid starting option. However, the nature of the weather will make him a bit of a boom/bust player this week.