Sunday’s game for the Buffalo Bills ended with a concern about a Josh Allen injury for fantasy football managers. Allen was seen clutching his right elbow on the final few plays, raising concerns he could miss time.
Let’s look at the latest updates regarding Allen’s injury and the implications on Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Devin Singletary, and the other Bills’ skill position players if he was to miss time.
Josh Allen Injury Update
Despite the elbow injury, Allen uncorked a massive throw to Davis on the final play for the Bills’ offense. While the throw fell incomplete, the ability to throw the ball that far appeared to be a good sign. After the game, Allen said there was some slight pain but that he was working through it.
On Monday, NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport released an intriguing report. While Rapoport said that the injury was considered something to monitor rather than an ailment that would keep Allen out, he added that Allen was still undergoing tests. The final part of that tweet is the interesting part because it suggests that Buffalo does not know the full extent of the injury yet.
If Allen were to miss time because of the injury, then it would have a profound impact on the Bills’ season and the fantasy value of their various playmakers. In fact, you may want to give all of Buffalo’s receivers a slight downgrade.
If Allen does miss time, then whoever takes over between Case Keenum and Matt Barkley would have limited value. While Allen is a must-start and a top-three fantasy QB option, Barkley or Keenum would only be a borderline Superflex starter in 12 and 14-team leagues.
Fantasy Implications for Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Devin Singletary, Dawson Knox, and Others if Allen Misses Time
The only other QB on the Bills’ roster right now is Keenum, with Barkley on their practice squad. Therefore, logic says that Keenum would be the one most likely to start if Allen missed time. Regardless of which were under center, there would be a reasonably large impact on the Bills’ skill position players.
While Diggs would likely still be viewed as a starting receiver on a weekly basis, his ceiling would be somewhat downgraded. Diggs is currently the WR2 in terms of points per game in half-PPR scoring. However, if Allen were out, he would likely fall more into the low-end WR1/high-end WR2 region.
While that is not a complete disaster, if you are drafting a best ball team today (perhaps on Underdog Fantasy), he might not be the player to chase early in the draft like he was a few days ago. Additionally, if someone were to offer you a huge package of options for Diggs in a redraft fantasy league today, it would be worth considering far more than it was heading into Sunday.
The bigger impact would likely be on Davis, who is the WR26 in terms of points per game on the season, averaging 11.2 in half-PPR. Davis has been a boom-bust fantasy option this season. He has three scores of double-digits and four scores of 5.2 fantasy points or fewer.
At this point, the only thing that makes Davis a weekly start consideration is the upside of this Bills offense. Keenum or Barkley would be unlikely to throw the ball as much per game as Allen, which would limit Davis’ opportunities. He is averaging six targets per game in the last four games but has only managed to pull in 2.5 receptions per game.
That efficiency has made him tough to trust, and if the opportunities were to drop, it could have a huge impact on Davis. Therefore, if Allen misses significant time, Davis would drop outside of a serious weekly starting consideration. The reduction in arm strength from Allen to the other QBs would also somewhat reduce his potential in best ball formats.
One player who might be a winner is Devin Singletary. Allen has scored four rushing touchdowns this year, including two against the Jets. Allen has almost been the defacto goal-line back for the Bills, with nine carries to the five for Singletary. The counter to that is that with Allen out, the Bills would be less likely to average 31.4 points per game, reducing his chances of finding the endzone.
Counterbalancing that is the expectation the Bills might be more balanced in terms of run and pass with a different QB under center. The Bills are averaging 38.1 pass attempts per game, compared to 24.4 rushing attempts per game. Allen is averaging 7.75 of those, which would likely not be replicated by Barkley or Keenum.
Therefore, Singletary could be set for a bigger share of a bigger pie, which is a potential goldmine for his fantasy value. Combine that with the potential higher percentage of the goal-line work for Singletary, and his ceiling might actually increase a little in the absence of Allen.
Dawson Knox has been a frustrating fantasy option if you drafted him. He has averaged just 3.86 targets, 2.86 receptions, 26.1 receiving yards, and 0.29 touchdowns per game this year. All of those numbers are down on his output from last year. Just once this year has Knox posted a double-digit return in half-PPR scoring. He has only crossed five fantasy points in four of the seven games he has been active for.
It is tough to know which way his value might go if Allen were out. Keenum or Barkley might be more likely to look his way than Allen has been. Again, his ceiling would be somewhat reduced by a potentially less potent and more balanced Bills’ offense. However, if a different QB looks his way and targets him upwards of five times a game, he could have a solid half and full-PPR floor going forward.
In terms of the other fantasy skill players, there is a somewhat mixed outlook. Isaiah McKenzie has been a touchdown-dependent option this year. In a less potent offense, it would be hard to trust him to find the end zone on a regular basis.
In contrast, James Cook could see a boost in value for the same reasons as Singletary. An increase in touches could head his way if Allen misses time. However, the counter to that is that Nyheim Hines’ impact on the offense has yet to be felt. The Bills traded for him at the deadline, and his role should only grow on the one target and four offensive snaps he saw in Week 9.