The NFC North hasn’t lived up to expectations as both the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers are on pace to fall well short of their win projections. The Lions have been fun but are 1-6, whereas the Packers are 3-5 and are fighting for their playoff lives. We’re diving into the best player prop bets, including Amon-Ra St. Brown, Aaron Jones, and Allen Lazard.
We’re covering all sports betting aspects of this matchup, with lines courtesy of our friends at FanDuel Sportsbook. On top of grabbing these Lions and Packers player prop bets, I highly recommend grabbing your no-sweat first bet for Week 9 while you can.
Top Lions vs. Packers Player Props To Target
We’re using every tool at our disposal to make sharp prop bets for this NFC North battle, including fantasy averages, player trends, and the best vig. Let’s dive into the best prop bets you can target.
Allen Lazard Player Props: Anytime TD (+120)
After taking a few weeks to find his footing after an injury in the preseason, Lazard has been a solid intermediate threat for Aaron Rodgers. Though he’s far from an ideal No. 1 receiver, Lazard has 26 receptions for 340 yards and four scores. His trends entering this matchup bode extremely well.
With five receiving touchdowns in his last six road games, we’re going to take the value on Rodgers and Lazard connecting again. Lazard hasn’t gone consecutive weeks without a touchdown this season either, and he was shut out of the end zone last week against Washington.
The Lions are the fifth-worst defense in the NFL against wide receivers, giving up a touchdown per game and 193.6 yards on 14 receptions. Considering Lazard had five catches for 75 yards and two receiving touchdowns in their last meeting, this is a great bet.
It’s also worth noting is a $5 bet on the over of Lazard’s receiving total would win $200 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Amon-Ra St. Brown Player Props: Over 6.5 Receptions (-140)
I usually stay away from reception totals on prop bets, but the Lions will have to rely on St. Brown this week. Trading T.J. Hockenson and injuries to DJ Chark and Josh Reynolds have left this team bare. Plus, St. Brown has been on fire.
Catching 7+ passes this week would make the seventh-straight home game with that many receptions or more. St. Brown remains a premier fantasy and prop option even as the Lions’ offense has degraded from elite to somewhat threatening. We’d love to see a repeat of their last matchup when St. Brown had eight catches, 109 yards, and a touchdown.
Green Bay’s defense hasn’t been nearly as effective as we had hoped to enter the season, with their pass rush being notably worse than last year. Preston Smith has disappeared and the loss of Za’Darius Smith has been evident. These are things that were far from expected based on last year.
Even as a unit that ranks eighth in fantasy points allowed to receivers, this talented secondary hasn’t been as consistently lockdown in coverage as they were last year. Receivers are averaging 10.5 receptions on only 15.5 targets for 130.5 yards and 0.75 touchdowns per game. I think Brown comfortably settles in for a big game this week and Detroit pushes Green Bay.
Aaron Jones Player Props: Over 98.5 Total Yards (-130)
Last week, we finally saw the efficiency and volume balance from Jones that we grew used to over his career. Jones had 24 touches for 157 yards, breaking a streak of three games with 80 or fewer total yards. It was his third game with 100 or more rushing yards this season, and he has 75+ yards from scrimmage in three of his four road games.
This all bodes extremely well looking at this matchup. Jones had 115 scrimmage yards last September against the Lions. He’s averaged 71 rushing yards on 14 carries in seven career games against Detroit, and this Lions defense is at the bottom of the barrel at slowing opponents. They’re allowing an average of 122.7 rushing yards, 1.43 rushing touchdowns, and 24 receiving yards to backs.
MORE: NFL Week 9 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread
The Packers have to continue feeding Jones for this offense to be in a healthy place. If they don’t, we’ve seen Rodgers take too much onto his plate and mistakes start to compound. The rhythm of the previously magical seasons is dead without Davante Adams, but that doesn’t mean everyone else has to be unproductive.
It’s unfortunate the unit has lost the ability to have both Jones and AJ Dillion producing, so we’ll only play Jones’ line.
Aaron Rodgers Player Props: Over 1.5 Passing TDs (-220)
We’re punting some of the value we’d prefer in order to take what is more of a gimme than these odds indicate. Rodgers has been fine this season, even without the splash plays, completing 66.4% of his passes for 13 touchdowns and only four interceptions on the year. He’s a machine at producing efficiency and avoiding turnovers.
With two touchdown passes in six of his last seven starts, and a 90+ passer rating in 10 of his last 11 games on the road, the trends are screaming for us to take the over. Remember, the Lions have the worst scoring defense in the league with a bottom-five pass defense.
Rodgers has dominated the Lions in 24 career games, averaging 252 yards and 2.2 touchdowns. While this Detroit team has a better offense than what Rodgers usually has to face, we’d love to see an offensive explosion from both teams since we’re playing so many overs. I think it’s more likely this is a standard matchup, where Rodgers is efficient but continues to be the reliable engine that churns out solid numbers.
Rodgers hasn’t had a passer rating under 88.1 since Week 1. This team remains problematic, as they’ve lost four straight games against mostly questionable opponents, but Rodgers hasn’t been the problem.
I tried to find any reason to go against this juiced line. As one would expect, the Lions have been hammered by opposing quarterbacks, ranking last in fantasy points allowed to the position. Detroit won’t have to worry about Rodgers running much, but their sack rate of only 1.57 per game is fourth-worst in the league.
Outside of an incredibly strange game script, Rodgers will hit the over on this passing touchdowns prop.