If you’re playing a Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tennessee Titans NFL DFS lineup for Sunday Night Football in Week 9, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.
The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.
Chiefs Considerations
Let’s cut to the chase (queue The French Connection chase music). I believe the Chiefs will beat the Titans by 20+ points. While both teams are 5-2, they’re built entirely differently and execute entirely differently.
Kansas City is No. 1 in the league with 31.9 points per game. Tennessee is 24th with 18.9 points per game. The Chiefs obliterate opponents in the passing game, ranking sixth in yards and first in touchdowns. And although they rarely run the ball (compared to the rest of the league), the Chiefs average 4.5 yards per carry, which is right around the NFL average.
MORE: NFL Week 9 Picks and Predictions
The Titans actually average only 4.4 yards per carry. Yet, that’s their key to victory every week. They’re last in the league in passing yards but are also tied for last in pass attempts. Because of their favorable record, they haven’t been sufficiently tested. In their last three games, they’re No. 4 in offensive time of possession (33:00), thanks in part to facing Sam Ehlinger in his first NFL start, as well as Davis Mills.
In fact, Tennessee’s five wins have come against four sub-.500 teams and the 4-4 Commanders, which has yet to beat a .500 team or better.
Context. Context is nearly everything. We cannot understand the probability of a dominant showing by the Chiefs tonight without first understanding the Titans’ incredibly narrow path to competitiveness, which we’ll dive into more below.
For now, we might assume that Tennessee’s middling-at-best pass defense will have few answers for one of the league’s most unrelenting passing attacks. The Titans have been quite tough against the run, yielding a league-low 624 rushing yards and one touchdown. No doubt, that’s very impressive.
And while some of that is due to game scripts that have compelled opponents to pass (Tennessee also leads the league in fewest opposing rushing attempts), it’s still worth considering in light of a Kansas City backfield that lacks even one semi-reliable DFS option.
Titans Considerations
Queue the more predictable French Connection II chase music. After looking “all too human” during Tennessee’s 0-2 start, Derrick Henry somehow has become an even greater focal point in this offense compared to last year, when he was on pace for crushing the single-season RB touch record.
What happened? For starters, the Titans began committing to Henry in the passing game. Through 2020, he’d never averaged more than 1.2 receptions per game in a season. Last year, he reeled in 2.3 per game. And in his last five games, Henry’s averaged 2.8, which officially puts him on the “catch-friendly RB” map.
MORE: Derrick Henry Injury Update Week 9
Additionally, Henry’s leading the league with 166 rushing attempts, putting him on pace for a whopping 403 for the season. That would be 13 shy of Larry Johnson’s 2006 record.
In that campaign 16 years ago, Johnson had one three-game stretch with 30+ touches per matchup. In fact, he totaled 28+ touches nine times that season. The 27-year-old was never the same after that year.
Last season, the 27-year-old Henry was on pace for 465 rushing attempts — 12% higher than Johnson’s record. Henry has 28+ touches in six contests before going down for the rest of the regular season. He’s currently riding a three-game, 30+ touch streak.
Something has to give.
A team that relies so heavily on one player — particularly a running back (even one of Henry’s size and strength) — carries risks. On the one hand, he’s the only Titan we can trust when healthy. Sure, a much cheaper Dontrell Hilliard might get some run. Or Robert Woods could shock us with a 12-point DFS performance.
But realistically, this is Henry vs. the entire Chiefs team. Assuming a negative game script, and considering Henry’s conceivably unsustainable workload, we might expect the Titans to rest their aging star more than usual if their probability of winning shrinks below 2%. They need him to stay healthy, and giving him 30 more touches in defeat could be a lose-lose in the long term.
Top NFL DFS Picks for SNF
Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five Flex players.
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
Captain: QB Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs ($18,000)
Which Kansas City player is most likely to hit 25+ points? Patrick Mahomes. So there we go. No need to overthink it. Facing a defense that hasn’t truly been tested since surrendering 41 points to the Bills in Week 2, Mahomes should dominate.
Flex: TE Travis Kelce, Chiefs ($10,400)
As I bring up often, I was completely wrong about Travis Kelce this summer, believing the 32-year-old would take a step back in a crowded receiving corps. He’s been brilliant, as usual, and has an optimal matchup tonight.
Flex: WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, Chiefs ($8,400)
Still his team’s No. 1 wideout, JuJu Smith-Schuster has netted eight targets in four of his last five games. While I hate chasing points (he’s cracked 25 DFS points in two straight contests), he’s the safest, highest-upside WR in this matchup.
Flex: Chiefs D/ST ($5,800)
This is me confirming my blowout prediction. Kansas City’s lukewarm defense should be able to contain Henry long enough for the game to be out of reach, thus sending him to the sidelines and removing the only significant threat to this D/ST hitting 13+ DFS points.
Flex: WR Dontrell Hilliard, Titans ($4,200)
I’m tempted to go Hassan Haskins ($1,400) instead, which would leave us $6,000 for our final DFS slot, which we could use on Mecole Hardman ($5,600) or Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($5,400).
But if Kansas City’s up 20+ points by the third quarter, Dontrell Hilliard could get 10+ touches, and his receiving-game prowess could propel him to double-digits. And . . .
Flex: RB Jerick McKinnon, Chiefs ($3,000)
. . . This game script would ensure an active Chiefs running game in the second half, particularly in the fourth quarter. While Isiah Pacheco ($2,400) could get more late-game usage, I prefer Jerick McKinnon’s active role in the passing game.
If this game goes as expected, the Chiefs will win roughly 38-10. Whatever you decide, good luck with your DFS picks.