It’s time for another Thursday Night Football prediction as we kick off Week 9 of the NFL season. This week, the undefeated Philadelphia Eagles take on the very defeated Houston Texans. The Behavior Bets sports betting model is predicting a rather one-sided affair in this one, and it shouldn’t be a surprise who comes out on top.
We hit on both primetime matchups last week with the model perfectly predicting the final score for Sunday Night Football between the Bills and Packers. Let’s see if it can have repeat success.
To see how the model did in October, and to see my full Week 9 prediction slate, make sure you are following Pikkit, where you can fade or tail the model, engage with me during the games and use the best bet tracking app out there!
Week 9 Prediction for Thursday Night Football: Eagles vs. Texans
My Eagles vs. Texans prediction starts and stops with two words: Jalen Hurts. He is coming into the matchup ranking in the top five for offensive value metric. This means, in his unique playing environment, he is providing a ton of value to his team in his on-field behavior. He’s taken an obvious step forward as a passer, and he has done it consistently, which is the key to any success.
On offense, the Eagles are, by far, according to my model, the most consistent point scoring team in the NFL. Their celeration rate is effectively x/÷ 1. This means that week over week their performance behavior in key offensive categories is not growing or decaying. This is a good indicator that a team has found its groove and identity.
Further, due to their consistent celeration, their bounce rate of x1.8 in points scoring makes them as safe a bet as there is in the league right now.
MORE: Early NFL Week 9 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread
The Texans’ defense is not going to be the stopper to the Philly machine. Two weeks removed from giving up 38 points to the recently shut-out Las Vegas Raiders, they have given up three or more touchdowns in four out of seven games. They have a bounce rate of x3.7, meaning week over week, there is a ratio of almost x4 between the variance of their highest and lowest performances.
That is very high in this context of football behavior. They cannot be relied on and have lost games to teams who have combined to win only 43% of their games.
The Behavior Bets model predicts a final score of 28-14 in favor of the Eagles.
- Pick ATS:
Eagles -13.5. When I began writing this, the line at Caesars was +14. I was sweating because this model has this game as a PUSH in this case, given the model’s prediction of a 14-point victory for Philly. It has thankfully since moved. And if it keeps making Philly less of a favorite, hammer it! This model was 21-16-2 ATS in October. - Pick on the Moneyline:
Eagles -800. There isn’t any value here as a bettor, but if you’re tailing this model and that .5-point margin on the spread is too close for comfort, you may think this is the safer play. In that case, for me personally, I probably wouldn’t bet the game at all, or I would secure this as an easy win and hope the line keeps moving. This model was 8-4 on the moneyline in October. - Over/Under Prediction:
Under. The model is predicting a total score of 42 points for this Thursday Night Eagles vs. Texans game. Caesars has the over/under set at 45.5. The model is predicting the Under by 3.5 points and is 13-13-1 in the month of October predicting totals. - Confidence Rating:
High. Of the eight data points used to determine confidence rating, five of them are green, two are yellow, and one is red. The one red? The Texans’ defense. They have a hefty bounce rate of x3.7, and that always gives me pause. All celeration rates are green, however, and green means go!Add that to a projected 14-point margin with a 13.5-point spread? I’m confident in the winner, but we’ll be biting fingernails on the rest with slim margins to play with.
*Thursday Night Football bets were all placed using Caesars Sportsbook.