After an entertaining and meaningful Thursday Night Football matchup last week, we’re back to covering a game that is not expected to be close. Fantasy football managers have the chance to get the most out of Philadelphia Eagles playmakers as they take on the lowly Houston Texans.
One playmaker in the spotlight to produce is Eagles wide receiver DeVonta Smith. Let’s dive into whether you should start Smith against the Texans.
Should You Start DeVonta Smith vs. the Texans?
The undefeated Eagles are living atop the NFC perch and things continue to look up entering Week 9. The Texans are struggling to stay afloat at 1-5-1, and it’s fair to wonder if sweeping changes are coming once again to the franchise. They might hit rock bottom this week as 14-point underdogs.
While the Texans’ season is in peril already, your fantasy football season is never over on Underdog Fantasy. Take the higher on Smith’s 5.5 receptions line on Underdog Fantasy for a deposit bonus of up to $100. Let’s dive into why that’s a good pick.
The Eagles enter as a nightmarish foe for a Texans defense that has been battered on the ground. Houston has allowed the most fantasy points in the NFL to running backs and ranks 32nd in run defense EPA. They just so happen to be facing the third-best run offense in EPA and sixth-most yards.
The raw numbers for Houston’s pass defense actually look good because of how offenses are attacking their run defense. They’ve given up the fifth-fewest fantasy points to receivers, but the lack of volume is a bigger reason than their actual effectiveness. If Philadelphia wants to establish A.J. Brown and Smith this week, they surely can.
MORE: Week 9 Fantasy Start/Sit Recommendations
Playing Brown in fantasy is a given each week, but Smith is a tougher projection. He ranks second on the unit with 51 targets but third with 420 yards. He’s had three solid fantasy performances but only one in the past month. With five catches in each of his last two games for a combined 67 yards, Smith is more of an afterthought in this offense than a priority.
Smith is currently ranked at WR27 in our Week 9 PPR Fantasy Football Rankings. There’s certainly the possibility Smith matches his season-best output against a secondary struggling with their identity and playmaking. His eight-catch, 169-yard, and one touchdown performance against Washington in Week 3 was a good reminder that Smith can rack up numbers when given the touches.
But this could very well be yet another quiet game that has steady targets but not valuable scoring opportunities. Brown dominated the Texans throughout his days in Tennessee, averaging six catches for 93.8 yards and a touchdown in six games. How can the Eagles justify feeding Smith over Brown and Miles Sanders when these two have a bigger edge?
It’s more likely we see Smith go higher on Underdog’s projected target volume of four receptions than his 55.5-yard line. He has two weeks of not reaching four receptions in seven games but has otherwise received at least five targets in every other game. I can’t see Houston’s zone-heavy defense being overly effective at slowing his target share.
Fantasy managers will be banking on Smith reaching the end zone to be a startable option. It’s possible he scores for the second-straight week, but I’m fading his projection as a standout starter. Instead, I think Philadelphia looks to dominate on the ground and escape from this game with a comfortable win.