If you’re playing a Buffalo Bills vs. Green Bay Packers NFL DFS lineup for Sunday Night Football in Week 8, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.
The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.
Bills Considerations
Buffalo should win this one handily. I wouldn’t have thought that three weeks ago. Now, it seems clear, even though we can never count out a squad with veteran leadership as the Packers have.
Still, the Bills have too much firepower, and while anything can happen (as we’ve seen in this strange and wonderful NFL season), our DFS lineup should lean heavily toward Buffalo players.
How heavily? That’s one big question. Right now, it’s looking like a 4-2 or 5-1 split because, unlike most teams, Buffalo has an elite D/ST (No. 2 in fantasy) and an underutilized near-elite kicker in Tyler Bass.
MORE: NFL Week 8 Picks and Predictions Against the Spread
Bass was a top-10 fantasy kicker over the last two seasons but has fallen short of expectations this year because his offense is so efficient. He entered this week at No. 1 in the league in extra points (21) but tied for 20th in field goal attempts.
The opposing Packers are yielding the NFL’s second-fewest passing yards, so we might envision merely “great” performances from guys like Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs rather than the “mind-blowing” outings we’ve come to expect. This also might equate to more chip-shot field goals if Buffalo can’t maintain its league-leading 53% third-down conversion rate.
Green Bay’s defense is more vulnerable on the ground, as they’re giving up 4.8 yards per carry. Entering Week 8, only four defenses had faced down more rushing attempts than the Packers. Clearly, the league knows what to do to beat this long-time Super Bowl contender. I expect a heavy dose of Allen and Devin Singletary on the ground.
Packers Considerations
Aside from giving Aaron Jones 25 touches, what is Green Bay’s strategy for winning this one — or even keeping it close? Perhaps a savvy former champion like Aaron Rodgers will gut out a close loss, or possibly a shocking victory. But with Allen Lazard hobbled, the Packers’ slim hopes of remaining competitive just got slimmer.
A negative game script by halftime could stamp out any hope of a big performance from Aaron Jones, who’s already facing an uphill battle against Buffalo’s elite run defense. Add to that the possibility that Jones might get pulled by the third quarter of a blowout loss, and he has a surprisingly low floor. 6-11 DFS points seems realistic.
The Packers’ anemic 35% third-down conversion rate (25th in the league) probably won’t improve against the Bills. Buffalo is yielding only 10.79 QB fantasy points per game — the third-lowest mark.
Rodgers simply doesn’t have the personnel to sustain drives, especially with Lazard hurt, Randall Cobb on injured reserve, and up-and-down rookie Romeo Doubs still developing.
So who can we trust in DFS? Maybe AJ Dillon? But he’ll be inexplicably pricey, and if Green Bay trails big, we’d sooner see third-string RB Patrick Taylor than watch an important No. 2 like Dillon needlessly risk injury.
Top NFL DFS Lineup for Sunday Night Football
Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five Flex players.
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
Captain: QB Josh Allen, Bills ($18,300)
Only twice this season has Allen had fewer than eight carries: in a 41-7 win over Tennessee and in a 38-3 victory over Pittsburgh. Even if he moderately struggles in the passing game, Allen should be good for 18+ points, with a strong shot at leading all scorers.
Flex: WR Stefon Diggs, Bills ($11,800)
This is largely a no-brainer. If Buffalo were facing a more dynamic offense, I’d want to conserve funds, but since the highest-priced Packers have low realistic ceilings, I’d rather spend big on Stefon Diggs.
Flex: RB Devin Singletary, Bills ($7,200)
A case could be made for the ultra-cheap James Cook in mop-up duty, but let’s assume Buffalo needs at least three TDs before considering resting their starters by the fourth quarter. In that scenario, Devin Singletary should get plenty of opportunities to shine.
Flex: Bills D/ST ($5,400)
Of course. The only hesitation is how well Rodgers protects the ball. Beyond that, assuming Buffalo can hit 10+ points, I’m comfortable with this investment.
Flex: K Tyler Bass, Bills ($4,600)
When you saw me talking about him earlier in this article, you knew this was coming. I believe this will be Bass’s best fantasy day of the season (so far).
Flex: WR Sammy Watkins, Packers ($2,600)
We’ve loaded up on elite-level Bills players. As long as Sammy Watkins starts, he should slide into a No. 2 or No. 3 pass-catching role with the overmatched Packers. I’d expect Rodgers to target him 5+ times, trying to generate some offense.
If Watkins has a setback, then I suggest swapping out him and Bass (yes, it pains me to write that). In their places, add Doubs ($4,000) and Cook ($2,000).