Fantasy football is more than just the weekly head-to-head games we’ve all grown to love. On Underdog, fantasy managers can put their player projection skills to the test by predicting player stat lines. Here are my top plays for Underdog’s Week 8 Pick’em contest.
Top Underdog Pick’ems To Target Today
Underdog Pick’ems allow fantasy managers to predict stat lines and fantasy point totals for almost all fantasy-relevant players. You can make two picks that pay out 3x even money or add more selections to your entry for higher payouts.
The levels are 3x, 6x, 10x, and 20x, progressing with each additional pick’em you add to your entry. Let’s take a look at this week’s NFL pick’ems.
Courtland Sutton Higher Than 4 Receptions
After two straight duds, it’s time to get back on the Courtland Sutton train. In a wild twist of fate, Russell Wilson’s return is actually a welcome sight if for no other reason than he’s proven capable of getting the ball to Sutton.
The Broncos’ WR1 caught at least four passes in his first five games. His struggles have only been in his past two games with a hobbled Wilson and an overmatched Brett Rypien.
I’m expecting a bounce back this week. This whole not throwing the ball to Sutton thing hasn’t worked the past two weeks. Expect them to scheme the ball to Sutton early and often. I think he gets to four receptions by halftime.
Trevor Lawrence Higher Than 0.5 Interceptions
We are fully fading the Jaguars’ passing game against the Broncos across the pond. Trevor Lawrence has not taken the massive step forward many expected. While he is protecting the ball better, this is an awful matchup.
The key factor here is the Broncos’ pass rush. They have the sixth-highest sack rate in the NFL. That means they can get to the quarterback. Lawrence struggles mightily under pressure, completing passes at just a 30% rate, 29th in the league. Look for Lawrence to make multiple mistakes in this one. The Broncos’ secondary just needs to capitalize on one.
Zay Jones Lower Than 42.5 Receiving Yards
Our Jaguars’ passing game fade continues with Zay Jones. Just 57% of the receiving yards allowed by the Broncos go to wide receivers. They also allow the second-fewest receiving yards per game to wide receivers at just 113.1.
MORE: WR Injury Report Week 8
I’m expecting Patrick Surtain to line up against Jones on the outside. Surtain has surrendered zero catches in three of his seven games this season. The only receivers to have any success against him were Michael Pittman and Davante Adams. Jones is not the guy to break through against this elite cornerback.
Christian Kirk Lower Than 52.5 Receiving Yards
The same goes for Christian Kirk, who will see a lot of K’Waun Williams. According to PFF, Williams has yet to allow a single receiver to go over 35 receiving yards.
Raheem Mostert Higher Than 67.5 Rushing Yards
There is no more committee in Miami. Raheem Mostert is the feature back, and Chase Edmonds only plays when Mostert is tired. Mostert’s snap share over his past four games is around 70%.
Over those four games, Mostert has surpassed 67.5 rushing yards three times. The Detroit Lions present an ideal matchup. I’ve been told tales of their run defense. Yet, I haven’t seen it. They allow 129.8 rushing yards per game to RBs, the second-most in the league.
Mostert is running as well as ever. As such, I expect him to rush for 80+ yards in this one.
Jamaal Williams Higher Than 35.5 Rushing Yards
Perhaps I’m falling into a trap here. I just don’t buy that Jamaal Williams will suddenly fade into obscurity because D’Andre Swift is back.
Williams has rushed for at least 53 yards in five straight games. Even with Swift in the lineup, Williams averages over 10 carries per game. At that rate, he needs just about 3.5 yards per carry to reach this number. The Dolphins allow 4.2 yards per carry. I think he gets there rather easily.
David Montgomery Lower Than 9.75 Fantasy Points
This number feels like a gift. For David Montgomery to surpass 9.75 fantasy points, he is going to need to either rush for 100 yards or find the end zone.
While Montgomery did score last week, the Dallas Cowboys’ defense is a whole different animal. They allow 4.4 yards per carry but have only allowed two rushing touchdowns all season.
Montgomery played a season-low 56% of the snaps last week, and Khalil Herbert is eating into his workload more and more each week. Montgomery is also a zero in the passing game, with just one target over the past two weeks. If he scores and goes higher than this number, I will tip my cap. I’m not sure if the Bears score any touchdowns this Sunday.
Diontae Johnson Lower Than 49.5 Receiving Yards
Kenny Pickett’s takeover has not been good for Diontae Johnson’s production. Pickett has favored George Pickens, resulting in inefficiency for Johnson. Over his past four games, he’s reached 42 receiving yards or more just once.
Johnson is likely to see a ton of Darius Slay or James Bradberry this week. Those two are a big part of why the Eagles allow the ninth-fewest receiving yards per game to wide receivers. There’s a world where Johnson catches five or six passes and still doesn’t get to 50 yards.
DeVonta Smith Higher Than 4 Receptions
A.J. Brown is the WR1 for the Eagles, but it’s more a 1a/1b situation than 1/2. DeVonta Smith is good at football and has a great rapport with Jalen Hurts.
In his six games this season, Smith has caught at least five passes four times. The only two games where he failed to reach four receptions were in Week 1, which was a fluke, and in Week 4, during the monsoon against the Jaguars. This man is still being disrespected. A.J. Brown is definitely the alpha, but Smith is no slouch.
The Steelers allow 14.1 receptions per game to wide receivers, the fifth-most in the league. 73% of their receiving yards allowed have gone to wide receivers. The Eagles’ plan will be to pepper their two excellent wide receivers, and I like Smith to catch six or seven balls in this one.
Davis Mills Higher Than 13.25 Fantasy Points
I also like Davis Mills’ higher than 230.5 passing yards, but taking his fantasy points makes more sense. Mills’ two worst games came against the Jaguars and Broncos. In his other four games, he’s scored at least 15 fantasy points three times.
Basically, Mills just needs to throw for about 200 yards and one touchdown. I think he throws two of them this week against a Tennessee Titans defense allowing 276.8 passing yards per game, third-most in the league. The way to beat the Titans is through the air. Look for Mills to air it out and possibly push 20 fantasy points this week.
Brandin Cooks Higher Than 9.75 Fantasy Points
Everything about Mills applies to Cooks. The Titans allow the second-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Cooks is the Texans’ WR1. I like him to catch a long one and find the end zone this week.
Michael Pittman Jr. Lower Than 58.5 Receiving Yards
What we’re trying to do here is capitalize on the uncertainty in the Colts’ passing game. Sam Ehlinger has taken over as the starting quarterback for Matt Ryan. Yet, Michael Pittman Jr.’s yardage projection remains about where it’s usually been.
Ehlinger is a mobile quarterback who will likely be quick to tuck it and run as opposed to standing in the pocket like the statuesque Ryan. As someone who has watched a lot of Colts plays (because I love Pittman), Pittman has benefited from Ryan standing in the pocket and waiting for him to come open underneath. That’s unlikely to happen with Ehlinger.
Pittman had just 58 receiving yards last week against the aforementioned soft Titans pass defense, and that was with Ryan throwing him passes. With Ehlinger, I’m expecting two things: 1) A heavy dose of Jonathan Taylor, and 2) growing pains when Indianapolis throws.
Sam Ehlinger Lower Than 222.5 Passing Yards
This should come as no surprise, given my general thoughts on this game. Since I’m expecting a run-heavy game plan with a quarterback who is prone to scrambling, I’ll say that Ehlinger is unlikely to reach 223 passing yards.
Sam Ehlinger Higher Than 25.5 Rushing Yards
In college, Ehlinger carried the ball 554 times for 1,903 yards. He’s a rushing quarterback. In his 137 preseason snaps, Ehlinger has 17 rushes for 126 yards. We only need him to get to 26.
Terry McLaurin Lower Than 58.5 Receiving Yards
It’s backup quarterback vs. backup quarterback in this game. I kind of just want to go lower on every wide receiver in this game. Instead, we’ll stick with Terry McLaurin.
The Colts have the best pass defense in the NFL. No team allows fewer than Indy’s 106.7 receiving yards per game to wide receivers. Unsurprisingly, the Colts also allow the fewest receptions per game to wide receivers at 9.4.
McLaurin has gone higher than this number in four of seven games this season. While one of those was impressive, doing it against Darius Slay and the Eagles, the other three came against the Lions, Titans, and Packers. None of those pass defenses strike fear in the hearts of opponents.
Stefon Diggs Higher Than 6.5 Receptions
I feel like Diggs gets to seven receptions more often than not. Of course, you don’t read this to follow my feelings. Let’s look at the facts.
Diggs has caught at least seven passes in five of his six games this season. He’s gotten there against cornerbacks like Jalen Ramsey and Xavien Howard. I am not afraid of Jaire Alexander, and neither is Josh Allen.
The Bills have no issue forcing targets in Diggs’ direction. He’s good for a couple of cheap ones each game. That means he only needs a handful of “real” receptions to get to seven. The Bills throw 65% of the time in neutral game script, the second-highest rate in the league. Diggs should get to seven once again.
Darrell Henderson Jr. Lower Than 58.5 Rush + Receiving Yards
For this one, I’m relying on a trustworthy name in the fantasy industry: Matthew Berry. On Saturday afternoon, Berry tweeted out that he has a “very strong hunch the lead RB for the Rams tomorrow is Ronnie Rivers.”
Fantasy managers may recall a similarly random situation last season when some dude named Craig Reynolds was rumored to be the lead back in place of an injured D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams. Sure enough, it was correct.
We have two paths to victory. First, if Berry is correct, Henderson won’t see nearly enough volume to hit this number. Second, even if Henderson plays 60-70% of the snaps, he hasn’t totaled more than 52 combined yards in a game since Week 1, which included his 39 yards performance against these very same 49ers in Week 4. Either way, Henderson is unlikely to reach this projection.