We break down the slate, see what the NFL weather report and forecast for Week 7 will be, and if any of your fantasy football players could be impacted. As always, good luck, stay safe, and let’s win the week!
NFL Weather Report for Week 7: A Clear Weather Forecast
New York Jets (-2) at Denver Broncos, O/U 37 | Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET
It’s almost fitting this game has a chance to see what is likely to be the “worst” weather of the Week 7 slate. With that said, it won’t be awful, even if the play on the field is. The only real concern will be the blustery conditions, especially in the first half.
While the sunny skies and low-60-degree temps will look good on TV, the current forecast calls for 18 to 20 mph winds at kickoff with gusts that could reach over 30 mph. However, conditions should improve as the game progresses, with sustained wind speeds dropping to 15 mph and gusts in the lower 20s. There is also a 30% chance of rain, but I doubt we will see it.
I also doubt we see many points. Russell Wilson (hamstring) is out for Week 7, and in his place steps Bretty Rypien. What I found hilarious is the line only moved half a point, and Courtland Sutton’s receiving prop went up. You can’t make this stuff up.
Jerry Jeudy is a fade for me and made my list of sits for Week 7, and now I don’t know if I could comfortably start Courtland Sutton with a backup QB in high winds with a top-tier corner in Sauce Gardner.
For the Jets, the only player I feel good about starting for fantasy is Breece Hall. Since Week 4, he’s averaging 20.3 touches and 132 total yards and should be the majority of the Jets’ offense in a game where the wind will force a more conservative approach.
Zach Wilson is averaging 19.5 pass attempts and 160 passing yards with zero passing touchdowns since returning and faces a Broncos defense that is first in pass DVOA featuring Pat Surtain II, who is making his best Derrell Revis impression. Fade Garrett Wilson and hope somehow Elijah Moore is traded as he rides the pine in Week 7.
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Chicago Bears at New England Patriots (-8), O/U 40 | Monday 8:15 p.m. ET
There is still plenty of time for the Foxborough to shift between now and Monday night. I’m singling this game out, but I think we should be in the clear. Rain is expected to come into the area on Sunday, but it should be out of the area by the time kickoff arrives.
If there is any rain, it should be less than 0.02”/hour, which is negligible. Outside of the chance of rain, it should be just fine with 58-degree temps with light and variable winds.
What makes it worse is this is a Monday Night Football game with minimal fantasy appeal. The only options on the Bears would be either David Montogolmery or Khalil Herbert, but when they are both active, each takes away from the other’s upside as the Bears have come out and said they would ride the hot hand.
We need to hope for the trade of Montgomery to unlock Herbert at this point. Montgomery is a low-end fantasy RB2, with Herbert a high-end RB4 who could break a long one.
As for the Patriots, we need to know who is playing. Mac Jones is questionable and, if healthy, could start his first game in three weeks, even though Bailey Zappe has played better than him. #Draftcapitalmatters.
What will be the most disappointing aspect is if Damien Harris is active. Obviously, I am not saying I want injuries — it just all but ruins the upside we saw from Rhamondre Stevenson. He had 237 rushing yards, two TDs, and 45 PPR points over the last two weeks.
But if Harris is active, we go back to a split backfield with both backs in the RB2/3 range despite the Bears sitting 29th in yards, 24th in points allowed (24.88 PPR), and 27th in run DVOA.
NFL Weather Report and Forecast for Week 7 Games: Worry-Free Weather
After a week full of surprises, the Week 7 slate of games should be smooth sailing as it relates to the weather forecast.
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5), O/U 45.5 | Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Do you know what day it is? It’s National Tight Ends Day! If you ask me, it should be a national holiday, but since it isn’t, my two gifts to you are to take the higher on both Mark Andrews’ 5.5 receptions and 73.5 receiving yards and David Njoku’s 3.5 receptions and 40.5 receiving yards over on Underdog Pick’ems.
Njoku’s breakout has been one of my better calls this year. He sits as the TE7 on the season with a 17.8% target share, a 22.7% target/route rate, and is fourth in YPRR and 11th in YAC/reception.
MORE: Week 7 Fantasy TE Rankings
Baltimore struggles against TEs too. They’ve allowed the eighth-highest catch rate, third-most receiving touchdowns, sixth-most yards after the catch, and sit 21st in DVOA against the position.
Andrews is, well, Andrews, and I doubt I need to do much convincing. He’s first in target share (34.3%) and target/route run (32%). In his last four games vs. CLE, Andrews has8.2 targets, 6.2 receptions, and 79 receiving yards with four touchdowns. I wouldn’t overthink this one.
As for the Week 7 weather forecast in Baltimore, expect mostly cloudy skies and 68-degree temperatures with 6 mph winds and a 30% chance of light rain.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-13) at Carolina Panthers, O/U 39.5 | Sunday 1 p.m. ET
I hate it for fans, but I love that Carolina has finally embraced the tank. You don’t get better by trading Christian McCaffrey, but you could get better in the long run with how much the Panthers go back in return.
I do give the edge to D’Onta Foreman over Chuba Hubbard for fantasy, but neither should be started in Week 7, and that’s just the best guess I have at the moment.
Chris Godwin is who I love this week for Underdog for the Buccaneers. Last week Godwin came back and had a vintage “Godwin” style day with a 93% route participation, 34% target share, and 48% air yard share.
He dominates zone coverage, and that’s what he is most likely to face on Sunday. I like the higher on both his reception projection (5.5) and receiving yards (64.5).
Charlotte’s Week 7 weather forecast should feature 73-degree temperatures, sunny skies, and 4 mph winds.
Atlanta Falcons at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5), O/U 47 | Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Falcons head coach Arthur Smith’s obsession with running the ball is obliterating the upside of both Drake London and Kyle Pitts. London has seen a 32.8% target share (second-best) and 32.3% air yard share but sits 21st in targets, 29th in points, and 36th in points per game (11.6 PPR). I’d consider sitting him in Week 7.
Pitts isn’t much better. He saw an 84.4% route participation and a 21.4% target share when he returned, but that was just three targets. He’s fourth in target share (19.23%), second in target/route run rate, and seventh in YPRR, but he is 24th in points per game.
This could be a breakout week for Pitts as Cincy is fourth in yards and fifth in receptions, but Pitts could walk away with a top-four week just as easily as he could bust once again.
Expect 79-degree temperatures, 6 mph winds, and partly sunny skies in Cincinnati for Week 7.
New York Giants at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3), O/U 47 | Sunday 1 p.m. ET
We now live in the age of Travis Etienne. Well, that is when JaMycal Hasty isn’t scoring inexplicable 61-yard runs. Etienne is a big play waiting to happen. He’s averaging 12.3 touches and 82.3 total yards since Week 3 and has back-to-back top-24 fantasy finishes.
This is an absolute smash spot for him as well. For one, Jacksonville put the pedal down, sitting sixth in neutral pace. New York struggles mightily against RBs. They’re 29th in EPA/rush, 28th in rushing yards, 30th in explosive rate, and have allowed the highest yards per reception to RBs in 2022. Yeah, he’s going nuclear.
Also, I wouldn’t start him but if you can, add Wan’Dale Robinson before Week 7 kicks off if possible. Making his return from injury, Robinson played only 23% of the snaps but saw the second-most targets, catching three of his four targets for 37 yards of the touchdown.
Injuries have decimated the Giants’ WR corps once again to the point where someone needs to gift them all a bottle of Flinstone gummies and a pack of Spongebob band-aids for Christmas.
There is every chance in the world that Robinson could become the No. 1 option for Daniel Jones. With upcoming games against the Jaguars in Week 7, followed by the Seahawks, Texans, and Lions, now is the time to add Robinson.
As for the weather forecast report in Week 7 in Jacksonville, we should expect highs around 78 with 9 mph winds and sunny skies.
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (-2.5), O/U 41.5 | Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Jonathan Taylor is back. After missing the last two games due to injury, fire him back into your lineups, even if they might limit his snaps. Taylor has averaged 22.6 touches and 93 total yards this season, and while Tennessee has been a troublesome matchup, allowing the fifth-fewest rushing yards and eighth-lowest rush EPA, there is no way to bench Taylor as he can go off at any moment.
Speaking of being back, Derrick Henry looks like King Henry again. Henry has averaged 27.6 opportunities and 140.6 total yards, and 1.3 TDs over the last three games. The Colts have become a run funnel and, given the lack of playmakers on the perimeter, should be in line for another top-five outing in Week 7.
MORE: Week 7 Fantasy PPR Rankings
If you want another Underdog Fantasy Pick’em, take the higher on Alec Piece’s 43.5 receiving yards. Pierce has seen five or more targets in every game since Week 2 and had sixty-plus yards between Week 3 through 5.
Tennessee is a team to target pass-catchers against, as they sit 31st in fantasy points allowed per game (44.37 PPR) and are dead last in yards per target allowed at 15.23. Additionally, Tennessee is 29th in passing DVOA and 31st in DVOA vs. an opponent’s No. 2 WR
The Week 7 weather report should be pleasant in Nashville, with temps around 78, 6 mph winds, and sunny skies.
Green Bay Packers (-4.5) at Washington Commanders, O/U 41.5 | Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Carson Wentz has been placed on injured reserve and in his place steps the folk hero Taylor Heinicke. He was QB20 in PPG last year, but I don’t view this as any sort of upgrade for the Commanders’ offense. I have to downgrade the passing options this week, even though Green Bay has been an up-and-down defense.
When it comes to the Packers, this offense is a mess. There is no continuity, they lack a top-tier playmaker (ex: Davante Adams) and won’t throw to Aaron Jones despite this being all he did when Adams wasn’t in the lineup. Throw in a split in opportunities with A.J. Dillon, and it’s just a headache for fantasy managers.
As for the Week 7 weather forecast, we should see mostly cloudy skies with highs near 65 and 4 mph winds.
Kansas City Chiefs (-1) at San Francisco 49ers, O/U 49 | Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
Christian McCaffrey is now a member of the San Francisco 49ers. I’m not sure what else to say here. The air feels crisper, the food tastes better, and the sky seems bluer. When he gets up and going with a full workload, the only time you will see domination happen like this is in Williamsport for the Little League World Series by a 12-year-old with a beard.
Reports are he might see a red zone package, and that’s enough for me to start him, as four touches might be four touchdowns. The 49ers are a legitimate Madden roster with Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle. I’ve got no idea how the target share will be distributed, but as a football fan, I can’t wait to kick my feet up and watch this.
MORE: Christian McCaffrey Fantasy Outlook in Week 7
Oh yeah, Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce are playing too. Look, just start everyone you normally would in this game, minus Jeff Wilson, and I’d also suggest sitting Clyde Edwards-Helaire in a difficult matchup against San Francisco, who is getting Nick Bosa back.
San Francisco’s Week 7 weather forecast should feature clear skies, 68-degree temperatures, and 15 mph winds that should drop after halftime.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Miami Dolphins (-7.5), O/U 45 | Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET
It’s going to be a celebration in Miami Gardens as the organization is honoring the 50th anniversary of the only undefeated team in NFL history. It’s also going to be a celebration in the stands, as I don’t see Pittsburgh stopping the Dolphins’ passing attack, especially with Tua Tagovailoa back and cleared from concussion protocol.
I went over my favorite players for Underdog Pick’ems, and the same applies to your redraft leagues. Tua is a QB1, Tyreek Hill might be the overall WR1 with Jaylen Waddle not far behind, and I would fade any Steelers players outside of Pat Freiermuth if at all possible.
Expect 75-degree temperatures, 7 mph winds, and mostly clear skies in Miami for Week 7.
Indoor Games in Week 7
Because these NFL games are indoors, the weather conditions can be controlled. As such, the only forecast and reports are that it will be optimal playing conditions for these teams. The passing and kicking games will not be affected.
- Detriot Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5)
O/U 49 | Sunday 1 p.m. ET - Houston Texans at Las Vegas Raiders (-6.5)
O/U 46 | Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET - Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Chargers (-4.5)
O/U 50.5 | Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET