If you’re planning to bet on Week 7 NFL player props for Sunday Night Football’s thrilling Miami Dolphins vs. Pittsburgh Steelers matchup, then you’ve come to the right place.
We’ve analyzed the game’s highest-probability scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated and which could fall short of expectations. All prop bets are based on DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, or BetMGM.
Top Dolphins vs. Steelers Player Props To Target
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics culled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
Jaylen Waddle Player Props
Is the following betting line easy money? Well first, there’s no such thing as “easy money,” as I learned watching the 1983 film, “Easy Money.” Jens Lapidus’ 2012 novel Easy Money challenged my longstanding assumptions about easy money, before Keith Romer’s “Easy Money” essay appeared in The New Yorker the following year, preparing me for the gut-punch that was Johnny Marr’s 2014 song “Easy Money.”
For these reasons and more, Jaylen Waddle is a good bet in Week 7.
Receiving yards over 58.5
(-115) — DraftKings
Tyreek Hill Player Props
Is there a good reason to bet against Tyreek Hill? I can’t think of one. And believe me: I’ve tried.
He’s largely QB-proof and defense-proof at this point. And with Tua Tagovailoa back in the fold, we should feel confident enough to bet the “over” on his yardage total against the Steelers’ bottom-tier pass defense.
Receiving yards over 78.85
(-115) — BetMGM
Raheem Mostert Player Props
I haven’t trusted Miami’s backfield since watching them in Week 1. That’s not entirely fair of me, and I realize circumstances change. But as PFN Pass subscribers know, I urged readers to bet against Chase Edmonds in Weeks 2, 3, and 4, until it was obvious to nearly everyone what Edmonds would do.
MORE: Top Dolphins vs. Steelers DFS Lineup
While Raheem Mostert has operated as the lead back, he’s more “best in the group” rather than “very good.” I personally root for Mostert, because I love how he’s persevered during his NFL career. But his middling 1.9 yards after contact and limited passing-game usage make him more TD-dependent than most RB starters. He’ll need volume to exceed expectations tonight. I’m betting against it.
Rushing yards under 63.5
(-115) — DraftKings
Kenny Pickett Player Props
I’m betting that Kenny Pickett will need to throw a lot to keep pace with Miami, especially when backed by an inefficient running game. His biggest question mark is health-related, as he’s returning from a Week 6 concussion. But we should bank on plenty of volume while playing catch-up for most of the game.
Passing yards over 223.5
(-115) — DraftKings
Passing TDs over 1.5
(+155) — BetMGM
Pat Freiermuth Player Props
While I like Pat Freiermuth in Week 7 as a red-zone threat, his yardage outlook makes me hesitate. Four catches for 30 yards and a possible score? That seems realistic. Six catches for 60 yards? That seems like a stretch, despite the fact he’s already hit 75+ yards twice this season.
So if his betting line were a little higher, I’d probably go under. Freiermuth seems headed toward a 30-50 yard day. As a result, I’m comfortable taking the over.
Receiving yards over 35.5
(-115) — DraftKings