NFL Week 7 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread: Impacts of Tua Tagovailoa, Russell Wilson, and Aaron Jones

Here are our final NFL Week 7 predictions and picks for all 14 games, with the Bills, Eagles, Rams, and Vikings all on byes. The following NFL betting odds are for picks against the spread, as well as moneylines based on DraftKings Sportsbook.

NFL Week 7 Picks and Predictions

Each week of the NFL season features the expected, the moderately unexpected, and the completely unexpected. When betting on point spreads and moneylines, we need to focus on the first two outcomes.

What are the highest-probability game scripts? Which interesting subplots could emerge? For example, we cannot anticipate when a little-used fullback will fall into the end zone twice in one half. But we can assess the likelihood that one team’s backfield will earn more scoring opportunities.

With that in mind, here are our final assessments of how each game might proceed.

Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons

• Date: Sunday, Oct. 23
• Start time: 1 p.m. ET

The line has edged upward from a -6 line earlier this week. Honestly, it could reach nine points, and I’d still bet on the Bengals, whose offense is (I believe) starting to re-gel after a disjointed September.

Meanwhile, the Falcons still don’t have enough firepower to keep pace with great offenses most of the time. I write “most” because surely they defied expectations by defeating the 49ers last weekend. But Cincinnati has contained run-friendly QBs pretty well and has played exceptionally well at home.

Against-the-spread prediction: Bengals
Moneyline winner: Bengals

Dallas Cowboys (-7) vs. Detroit Lions

• Date: Sunday, Oct. 23
• Start time: 1 p.m. ET

I’m surprised this betting line hasn’t changed. With Dak Prescott poised to return, it’s hard to envision Detroit keeping pace with a Dallas offense they lack the pieces to stop, and a Cowboys defense they lack the playmakers to consistently overcome.

MORE: Top Anytime TD Scorer Predictions Week 7

Before you cry foul, yes, I get that D’Andre Swift and Amon Ra-St. Brown are special talents. The question is, can they, T.J. Hockenson, and Jared Goff do better on the road than the Eagles’ formidable offense did at home last weekend? So again, I don’t see how the Lions can keep pace.

Against-the-spread prediction: Cowboys
Moneyline winner: Cowboys

Tennessee Titans (-2.5) vs. Indianapolis Colts

• Date: Sunday, Oct. 23
• Start time: 1 p.m. ET

This will be quite a battle between two preseason favorites to win the AFC South. Both have underperformed at times, and yet the receiver-needy Titans remain atop the division, at least for now.

Can Derrick Henry carry them? He has more carries (104) than Ryan Tannehill has carries plus completions (97). Tennessee’s fortunes run through their star RB more than ever.

Matt Ryan is on pace for 5,001 passing yards, which seems like a typo even as I’m typing it. Despite taking too many sacks, committing too many turnovers, and often looking well past his prime, his performance last Sunday against the Jaguars reminds us what he can do, even without the team’s all-world running back, Jonathan Taylor.

Backed by a capable defense, the Colts are good enough to win this one on the road, especially with Taylor gearing up for a return.

Against-the-spread prediction: Colts
Moneyline winner: Colts

Washington Commanders (+4.5) vs. Green Bay Packers

• Date: Sunday, Oct. 23
• Start time: 1 p.m. ET

This betting line continues to trip me up. Very little about the Packers should make us confident. And yet, with Taylor Heinicke helming Washington’s passing attack, there’s a good chance Green Bay’s stellar pass defense completely overwhelms him.

MORE: D’Onta Foreman or Chuba Hubbard? Fantasy Outlook for Panthers Backfield

The Panthers trading McCaffrey could realistically move this betting line six points or more. It’s hard to envision D’Onta Foreman and/or Chuba Hubbard combining for 30% of what McCaffrey normally does, especially with PJ Walker at the helm.

Against-the-spread prediction: Buccaneers
Moneyline winner: Buccaneers

Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) vs. New York Giants

• Date: Sunday, Oct. 23
• Start time: 1 p.m. ET

The Jaguars have lost three straight, and their Week 7 opponent must look far tougher than it looked back in the preseason. Yes, the 5-1 Giants are for real, at least until they’re not.

While the Jags can hit defenses on the ground and through the air, New York remains pretty one-dimensional. I like Jacksonville wearing down New York, particularly on the ground, as Travis Etienne Jr. continues asserting himself as one of the next “great” young RBs.

Also, keep in mind that a scheduling oddity makes this merely the Giants’ second “road” game (their other supposed road game was on neutral turf in London). That one legitimate road win was on a last-minute touchdown and two-point conversation, and then a last-second missed field goal by Tennessee.

On paper, the Jaguars are better positioned to prevail at home. We’ll see if that’s good enough.

Against-the-spread prediction: Jaguars
Moneyline winner: Jaguars

Baltimore Ravens (-6.5) vs. Cleveland Browns

• Date: Sunday, Oct. 23
• Start time: 1 p.m. ET

J.K. Dobbins remains hobbled, and Mark Andrews has missed some practices. This betting line could change a lot. For now, assuming Andrews is a go, I’m comfortable betting on a Baltimore squad that has lost games by four points or less. In other words, there was a clear path for them to go undefeated if a few plays broke differently.

The Browns will need to fight to keep up. I can see them hanging around into the third or even fourth quarter, but I’m comfortable picking the Ravens and Justin Tucker to push them past the point spread.

Against-the-spread prediction: Ravens
Moneyline winner: Ravens

Denver Broncos (-1) vs. New York Jets

• Date: Sunday, Oct. 23
• Start time: 1 p.m. ET

This line favored Denver by 3.5 points only a few days ago. Russell Wilson has been recovering from a hamstring injury. If he can’t start, the Jets probably will be favored by 3+ points. For now, the betting world waits.

Oh, and the Jets have their own issues, as Elijah Moore wants out. His magical connection with Zach Wilson last season is a messy distant memory, much like my toddler years.

The Broncos’ pass defense should hold Wilson in check. Breece Hall should prove to be the difference. The Jets’ incredible run should continue.

Against-the-spread prediction: Jets
Moneyline winner: Jets

Las Vegas Raiders (-7) vs. Houston Texans

• Date: Sunday, Oct. 23
• Start time: 4:05 p.m. ET

While LA still has enough talent to push past the impressive Seahawks, Seattle — led by rookie standout Kenneth Walker III and some timely scrambling from Geno Smith — should keep this within four points.

Against-the-spread prediction: Seahawks
Moneyline winner: Chargers

San Francisco 49ers (+2.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs

• Date: Sunday, Oct. 23
• Start time: 4:25 p.m. ET

A fascinating game and one that could (perhaps) be a Super Bowl preview. I wrote that line in the “early” edition of this column, before the Niners traded for McCaffrey. Now it makes more sense, as San Francisco might be the strongest 3-3 team in the league.

Can Kansas City deliver a needed road win? Earlier this week, I thought “yes.” Now, I’m not as confident, especially given the uncertainty surrounding McCaffrey’s availability. But this contest should be close regardless.

Against-the-spread prediction: 49ers
Moneyline winner: Chiefs

Miami Dolphins (-7) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

• Date: Sunday, Oct. 23
• Start time: 8:20 p.m. ET

This Bears game should mark their easiest win among these next four games. Justin Fields’ erratic play aligns well with New England’s mistake-pouncing defense. I’d be on the Patriots at minus-12, so their current line makes this a no-brainer.

Against-the-spread prediction: Patriots
Moneyline winner: Patriots