NFL Week 6 Picks and Predictions: Lock of the Week, Upset of the Week, and Scores for Every Game

The NFL season is a rolling river that ebbs and flows, so it’s never wise to read too much into any one data point. Except this one: Pro Football Network’s Dallas Robinson is a moneyline god. As you consume our NFL Week 6 Picks and Predictions, keep this in mind: Robinson is an excellent 65.6% in picking straight-up winners in 2022.

Read on to see whom Robinson (and the rest of us) like in Week 6 with our Lock of the Week, Upset of the Week, and picks for all 14 games. The Tennessee Titans, Detroit Lions, Las Vegas Raiders, and Houston Texans are all on byes.

All lines are as of Wednesday and are courtesy of DraftKings.

NFL Picks and Predictions: Lock of the Week

Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals

Betting line
Cardinals -2.5; Cardinals -140, Seahawks +120; O/U 50.5

The Arizona Cardinals, with one of the least explosive offenses in football, are somehow road favorites against the NFL’s No. 7 scoring team.

Geno Smith and the Seattle Seahawks are on some kind of roll, scoring 103 points over the last three weeks — just two fewer than the Cardinals have managed all season. The Seahawks rank second in yards per play (6.6) and third in yards per pass (7.8). Rashaad Penny’s season-ending injury definitely hurts, but they still have Kenneth Walker III who is averaging 6.3 yards per carry.

And the most encouraging part of the Seahawks’ recent run? They haven’t just gotten fat against bad defenses. Yes, they’ve padded their stats against the Lions and Falcons. But they also dropped 32 on the Saints — who are 10th in defensive EPA per play (-.04).

So, the Seahawks should move the ball against the Cardinals who are in the bottom third of the league in EPA per play (.06), yards per play allowed (5.9), third down stops (44%), and red zone defense (66.7%).

Seattle’s problem? Getting stops. That defense is terrible. The good news is the Cardinals’ offense — which ranks 25th in third downs and last in yards per pass (5.4) — more often than not stops itself.

Predictions:
Beasley: Seahawks 27, Cardinals 23
Miller: Seahawks 35, Cardinals 33
Robinson: Seahawks 27, Cardinals 23

NFL Picks and Predictions: Upset of the Week

Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Betting line
Colts -2; Colts -135, Jaguars +115; O/U 42

We’ll probably never forgive the Jaguars for laying a dinosaur-sized egg against the Texans after we made Jacksonville our lock of the week. But let’s not kid ourselves — that loss was on Trevor Lawrence. He threw an inexcusable second-half interception in the end zone and barely completed 50% of his passes in a second-straight terrible outing.

The rest of the Jaguars’ active roster played exactly how we expected. They held the Texans to 3.7 yards per carry and 4.4 yards per play, further establishing themselves as one of the league’s top defenses. The Jaguars defense ranks in the top 10 in scoring (16), yards per play (5.1), yards per rush (3.7), and interception rate (4.2%).

Jacksonville will face a Colts offense that is simply dreadful. Indianapolis is 29th in both yards per play (4.9) and yards per carry (3.6). Even assuming Jonathan Taylor (ankle) returns, it probably won’t make much of a difference. Taylor has just 113 yards on his last 41 carries.

If Lawrence isn’t again a turnover machine, the Jaguars win — and perhaps comfortably.

Predictions:
Beasley: Jaguars 24, Colts 18
Miller: Colts 24, Jaguars 23
Robinson: Jaguars 25, Colts 21

More NFL Picks and Predictions

Washington Commanders vs. Chicago Bears

Betting line
Bears -1; Bears -115, Commanders -105; O/U 37.5

I know whenever I get a chance to watch a matchup between the 29th and 30th best offenses in the league according to DVOA, I am glued to the monitor. If I were a betting man, I’d hammer the under. I don’t even know what it is, but I’m sure it’s not low enough. So, of course, this game will somehow end up finishing 31-30 or something insane like that.

We saw some positive signs from Justin Fields a week ago against the Minnesota Vikings, particularly during the Bears’ second-half comeback attempt that was ultimately foiled by a fumble. Still, only Baker Mayfield has posted a worse CPOE through five weeks. The Bears’ passing attack is still a long way away from being watchable.

Things in Washington might be even worse. Ron Rivera had to apologize to the team after essentially throwing his new quarterback under the bus. He even chalked it up to having a bad day. But that shouldn’t be a new feeling for the veteran head coach. He’s 15-23 in his third season with Washington.

— Dalton Miller

Predictions:
Beasley: Bears 22, Commanders 16
Miller: Commanders 21, Bears 20
Robinson: Commanders 24, Bears 13

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Betting line
Buccaneers -8; Buccaneers -380, Steelers +310; O/U 44

The Pittsburgh Steelers are a wreck, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ sails are a bit tangled. The Tampa Bay offense is getting healthier, but they’re still struggling more than we anticipated going into the season.

The Steelers’ passing attack is atrocious. They’re getting the ball out quickly to remedy what is an underwhelming offensive line from a talent perspective. That line has performed better than expected so far, but the passing attack lacks both explosiveness and consistency. We’ll see how things progress with Kenny Pickett when he isn’t playing a super talented defense, but we’ll have to wait another week because the Buccaneers are talented.

The Buccaneers passing attack is rounding back into form, but their run game has disappeared since starting red hot against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 1. In fact, it’s the worst in the NFL based on EPA, and it’s not particularly close. Since Week 2, they have a rushing EPA of -.432. The Colts have the second-worst number at -.270.

— Dalton Miller

Predictions:
Beasley: Buccaneers 26, Steelers 17
Miller: Buccaneers 30, Steelers 17
Robinson: Buccaneers 30, Steelers 10

At some point, the Packers will have to figure out their offense, and a Jets team with a young secondary might be the solution to issues that have popped up around Green Bay’s young receiving corps. That said, it’s not an easy matchup offensively, as the Jets have developed their pass rush, without blitzing, to impact opposing quarterbacks.

The Packers are most effective this year in quick-game passing, especially when paired with their high-ceiling running game, and that’s likely the best way to take on the Jets. On the other side of the ball, things should be a bit easier.

Zach Wilson was lucky to not throw more interceptions in his debut and could be prone to mistakes, especially without much chemistry with his receiving unit and an injury-weakened, porous offensive line. The Jets are building good bones, but they aren’t there yet. It will take some extraordinary performances from key rookie-contract players like Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner to pull off a big upset.

— Arif Hasan

Predictions:
Beasley: Packers 25, Jets 21
Miller: Packers 23, Jets 20
Robinson: Packers 27, Jets 14

Baltimore Ravens vs. New York Giants

Betting line
Ravens -5; Ravens -225, Giants +190; O/U 45

Las Vegas still refuses to acknowledge the Giants as a real contender in the NFC. The 4-1 Giants are a five-point underdog at home to the Ravens, who are 3-2 and have blown two fourth-quarter leads.

Lamar Jackson has played incredibly well early on in the NFL season, and the Baltimore defense appears to be turning things around after an iffy start to the season. However, that defense has struggled to defend against the run so far in 2022, and they’re about to play arguably the leader in the OPOY clubhouse.

The Giants are seventh in rushing EPA, and the resurgence of Saquon Barkley is a massive reason for their success. He doesn’t currently hold the lead for the rushing title, but he does lead the league in scrimmage yards. Daniel Jones is playing some of the best football of his career, and although the Giants may not have a ton of talent on paper, they are a well-coached team.

— Dalton Miller

Predictions:
Beasley: Ravens 23, Giants 22
Miller: Ravens 31, Giants 24
Robinson: Ravens 24, Giants 20

San Francisco 49ers vs. Atlanta Falcons

Betting line
49ers -5.5; 49ers -240, Falcons +200; O/U 44.5

Normally, seeing an expertly designed offense go up against a well-rounded and disciplined defense would be a lot of fun, but Atlanta doesn’t have the personnel to execute all elements of that offense. Instead, we’ll get to see backup-level quarterback Marcus Mariota take on technically-a-backup quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, with all the offensive fireworks (or lack thereof) that game implies.

Still, Atlanta has made strides and can challenge teams with their talented skill players, allowing them to keep things close — in fact, every game they’ve played has ended within one score, even against top-tier contenders like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Falcons can score points and rank 11th in the league in EPA per play.

It’s the other side of the ball that will cause problems. The 49ers, perhaps more than any other team, put stress on an opposing defense’s ability to tackle. And the Falcons only have a few bright spots on their defense capable of playing a full 60 minutes against players like Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, Kyle Juszczyk, and a corps of Kyle Shanahan-coached running backs without making a mistake on that front.

— Arif Hasan

Predictions:
Beasley: 49ers 24, Falcons 20
Miller: 49ers 27, Falcons 20
Robinson: 49ers 29, Falcons 15

Andy Dalton defeated the Bengals in each of his first two games against his former club, and he might get a chance to go 3-0 vs. Cincinnati if Jameis Winston (back) can’t play in Week 6. Whoever is under center should benefit from Michael Thomas’ expected return, but Chris Olave and Jarvis Landry’s statuses remain unclear.

Aerial weapons aside, New Orleans has become a running-based team. They’ve posted the league’s fifth-lowest pass rate over expectation, preferring to hand the ball to Alvin Kamara and jack-of-all-trades Taysom Hill. Whichever route they choose, the Saints could be in for tough sledding against a Bengals defense that’s held each of its opponents to 20 points or fewer.

That defense has kept Cincinnati in games, as Joe Burrow and the offense haven’t sustained consistent production. Expect the Bengals’ run-game woes to continue — New Orleans ranks first in EPA against the rush. Thus, the pressure is on Burrow, Zac Taylor, and the passing offense to create chunk yardage.

— Dallas Robinson

Predictions:
Beasley: Saints 22, Bengals 21
Miller: Saints 23, Bengals 21
Robinson: Bengals 23, Saints 16

Minnesota Vikings vs. Miami Dolphins

Betting line
Vikings -3.5; Vikings -180, Dolphins +155; O/U 45.5

Rookie Skylar Thompson — a seventh-round pick who has a career QBR of 29.4 (albeit in a very limited sample size) — will make his first NFL start after Tua Tagovailoa and Teddy Bridgewater spent the week dealing with concussion protocol-related issues.

But weird as it seems, the Miami Dolphins’ quarterback drama isn’t their biggest problem. Even if they played, neither Tagovailoa nor Bridgewater could fix a broken pass defense that can’t get stops and can’t force turnovers. Xavien Howard will be back from a groin injury, but the truth is the Dolphins weren’t particularly good on defense even before he got hurt.

The Dolphins have allowed an unacceptable 124 points in the last four weeks and let the Jets drop 40 on them in Week 5. Who’s going to cover Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen — who have 65 catches for 795 yards between them through five games? This could get ugly.

— Adam H. Beasley

Predictions:
Beasley: Vikings 23, Dolphins 22
Miller: Vikings 27, Dolphins 21
Robinson: Vikings 29, Dolphins 20

We so very badly wanted to write that the NFL needs to be on notice. That the Patriots are starting to figure things out after another slow start to the season. That they looked great against the Lions in Week 5 with Bailey Zappe — who has completed 75% of his passes in emergency duty and was third among all QBs in EPA per play in Week 5 — and how that bodes well for how good the Patriots might be when Mac Jones returns.

And then came the news that running back Damien Harris is expected to miss multiple weeks with a hamstring injury. And so, we scrapped it and took the very flawed, but still very talented Browns to not only win but cover on Sunday.

Yes, Rhamondre Stevenson has been the Patriots’ best back this year, but it was a 1-2 attack. The dropoff from Harris to rookie Pierre Strong (0 career carries) is huge.

Plus, we just can’t see a team whose fundamentals are as strong as Cleveland’s — first in rushing, sixth in yard differential, 12th in DVOA — losing three straight.

— Adam H. Beasley

Predictions:
Beasley: Browns 24, Patriots 19
Miller: Browns 24, Patriots 20
Robinson: Browns 20, Patriots 16

Carolina Panthers vs. Los Angeles Rams

Betting line
Rams -10.5; Rams -475, Panthers +380; O/U 41

The sportsbooks are just begging us to lay 10.5 points on Los Angeles. A broken Carolina team on the back end of a West Coast trip with an interim head coach does not make for a very terrifying opponent.

MORE: 10 Candidates to Replace Matt Rhule as Head Coach

But the idea of the Rams beating anyone by that many points seems almost absurd given their effort over the last two weeks. Decimated by injuries along the offensive line and facing two of the best defenses in the sport (San Francisco and Dallas), L.A. totaled 19 points in Weeks 5 and 6. The occasional Cooper Kupp catch-and-run is the only sort of explosive play this team can manage at the moment.

Lucky for the Rams, they’ll face a Panthers team that just fired their head coach and is set to deploy a backup quarterback. P.J. Walker was electric during his XFL days, but his NFL track record is decidedly less impressive. Going up against Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey won’t result in much of an opportunity for improvement.

— Dallas Robinson

Predictions:
Beasley: Rams 23, Panthers 18
Miller: Rams 24, Panthers 17
Robinson: Rams 25, Panthers 16

Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Betting line
Bills -2.5; Bills -135, Chiefs +115; O/U 54

One of the premier matchups of the season, it’s almost absurd that these teams are playing an afternoon game instead of on primetime. This is likely to be a preview of a playoff game, as the Chiefs and Bills are the two favorites to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.

The Bills boast the league’s most complete team, even as they’ve weathered injuries in their secondary, at linebacker, and in their skill position groups. They are the only team to be top-five in both offensive and defensive EPA, and they happen to rank second in both.

With an improved pass rush, an even deeper receiver group, a broad skill set in the secondary, and a solid offensive line, the Bills have all the tools they need to dominate nearly any team they play.

And yet, the Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes, meaning they can erase almost any opponent’s advantage. The Bills have a more complete team, but the Chiefs have an even better trump card, especially as the Chiefs are experts at increasing their level of play in more important games and reserving their best for those matchups.

With the increasing chemistry of their new-look offense and wonderful performances from young players on their defense, the Chiefs will be a great matchup for the dominant Bills.

— Arif Hasan

Predictions:
Beasley: Bills 28, Chiefs 26
Miller: Bills 31, Chiefs 30
Robinson: Bills 31, Chiefs 28

Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Betting line
Eagles -6; Eagles -265, Cowboys +225; O/U 42.5

It’s not the marquee matchup of the week, but it is a divisional battle between the top two teams in the NFC by record. The Cowboys are still most likely going to be without starting QB Dak Prescott, who is still recovering from thumb surgery on his throwing hand.

Philadelphia finally somewhat stumbled a week ago against Arizona. The offense couldn’t find any holes downfield to attack through the air, which led to a season-low aDOT of just 3.4 yards for Jalen Hurts. Things won’t get any easier against the Cowboys defense, but Philadelphia’s offense still comes in ranked inside the top 10 in every efficiency category.

Dallas can’t score on offense. It hasn’t bit them yet because their defense has played out of their skulls through the first five weeks of the season. Backup QB Cooper Rush has done the job of not losing football games for his team, but he might have to go out and win a game against a talented team.

— Dalton Miller

Predictions:
Beasley: Eagles 24, Cowboys 17
Miller: Eagles 17, Cowboys 13
Robinson: Eagles 26, Cowboys 19

Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Betting line
Chargers -5; Chargers -240, Broncos +200; O/U 45.5

The NFL’s schedule-makers inadvertently put Nathaniel Hackett and Russell Wilson’s struggles at the forefront of the conversation by making four of Denver’s first six games primetime affairs. A loss to the Chargers on Monday night will virtually eliminate the Broncos from the AFC West conversation while also reducing their Wild Card hopes.

Wilson is dealing with a shoulder injury, but Denver can thankfully run their offense through their backs in Week 6. Los Angeles still has one of the league’s worst run defenses, and the Melvin Gordon/Mike Boone combo could have a field day. Wilson just has to avoid the type of back-breaking mistakes he made against the Colts in Week 5.

Injuries and effectiveness have made nearly all of the Chargers’ games close contests, and they barely escaped with a win over the Browns on Sunday. Justin Herbert is largely playing mistake-free football, although his 40.8 QBR against Cleveland was his worst mark of the season. The Broncos are, by far, the stiffest defensive test he will have faced in 2022.

— Dallas Robinson

Predictions:
Beasley: Chargers 25, Broncos 21
Miller: Chargers 27, Broncos 20
Robinson: Chargers 27, Broncos 17