The deeper we get into the season, the more hesitant I am about starting players on Thursday night. This week, we have the Chicago Bears hosting the Washington Commanders. What is the status of the Commanders’ backfield, and can fantasy football managers start Brian Robinson on Thursday night?
Update: Brian Robinson has officially taken the starting job from Antonio Gibson. While this doesn’t necessarily change his fantasy outlook in a likely low-scoring game, it is noteworthy for bot of their fantasy values going forward.
Brian Robinson’s Fantasy Outlook Against the Colts
Making lineup decisions on Thursday night is difficult as it is. Making lineup decisions regarding a backfield full of uncertainty is the epitome of challenging.
From Weeks 1-4, we knew exactly what to expect from the Commanders’ backfield. Antonio Gibson was the clear early-down runner; J.D. McKissic dominated passing downs.
In Week 5, Robinson made an incredible return to the field after sustaining multiple gunshot wounds shortly before the season began. It’s an awesome sight to see for all football fans.
Robinson’s return makes this situation murkier for fantasy managers. Let’s see if we can solve the puzzle that is the Commanders’ backfield this week. But before we even get into the matchup against the Bears, we must review the disturbing trends with Gibson’s usage and productivity.
In Week 1, Gibson saw a 63% snap share. Since then, his snap share has decreased every week of the season. In Week 5, it reached a season-low 33%. The same trend occurred with Gibson’s fantasy points, which went from 20 PPR fantasy points in Week 1 down to 6.9 in Week 5.
If you thought the Commanders might ease Robinson into game action in his first NFL contest, that would’ve been perfectly reasonable. It’s what I thought would happen, too. Instead, Robinson instantly led the backfield with nine carries.
MORE: Fantasy RB Start/Sit Week 6
Although he didn’t see a target, Robinson played just four fewer snaps than Gibson. This resulted in Gibson seeing a season-low three carries.
Head coach Ron Rivera once again broached the idea of using Gibson as a kick returner. It seems readily apparent that Rivera wants Gibson in that role, but he was hesitant to risk it without Robinson.
With Robinson back, we may very well see Gibson as more of a special teamer. Gibson may occupy the offensive role that Jaret Patterson had last year, and Jonathan Williams had this year.
Will Brian Robinson Have an Impact on the Passing Game?
Through five weeks, McKissic has seen a 14.7% target share (ninth-most amongst running backs). While Gibson’s is a respectable 9.8%, 23rd in the league, I expect that to drop with Robinson back in the fold.
Robinson is still unlikely to see more than a target or two each game. He will have to make his money on the ground. But I think he can do it. Robinson can easily get 12-14 carries per game. Most importantly, we can project him to operate as the goal-line back. It’s not like McKissic is taking on any of that work.
The good news for Gibson is the Commanders should either be leading or never trailing by more than a single score against the lowly Bears. That will keep McKissic’s snap share closer to 40% rather than the 50-55% he sees when the Commanders have to play from behind.
The Commanders are not a great team. They will have plenty of games where Robinson is taken out of it due to the score. Fortunately, this week is probably not going to be one of them.
Should Fantasy Managers Start Brian Robinson?
The Bears allow 21.8 ppg to opposing running backs. They rank in the middle of the pack. This matchup is relatively neutral. However, the decision to start Robinson has little to do with the opponent. This is entirely based on what this backfield split might look like.
Robinson is the RB41 in our Week 6 running back rankings. PFN Senior Fantasy Analyst Tommy Garrett still has Gibson firmly ahead of Robinson. I can’t help but wonder if this isn’t the last time we see that.
I’m more bullish than not on Robinson’s rest-of-season outlook. However, I would not recommend starting him on Thursday night against the Bears. It’s still just his second game back.
This may remain a three-man timeshare for at least a couple of weeks. Leave Robinson on benches until we have a clearer idea of what this backfield split will be.