The deeper we get into the season, the more hesitant I am about starting players on Thursday night. This week, we have the Chicago Bears hosting the Washington Commanders. What is the status of the Commanders’ backfield, and can fantasy football managers start Antonio Gibson on Thursday night?
Antonio Gibson’s Fantasy Outlook Against the Colts
Making lineup decisions on Thursday night is difficult as it is. Making lineup decisions regarding a backfield full of uncertainty is the epitome of challenging.
From Weeks 1-4, we knew exactly what to expect from the Commanders’ backfield. Gibson would operate as the early-down grinder, with J.D. McKissic as the passing-down back.
In Week 5, Brian Robinson made an incredible return from gunshot wounds to his leg. It’s an awesome sight to behold for all football fans, but it certainly doesn’t help this situation for fantasy managers.
Let’s see if we can make heads or tails out of the Commanders’ backfield this week. But before we even get into the matchup against the Bears, we must review the disturbing trends with Gibson’s usage and productivity.
In Week 1, Gibson played 63% of the offensive snaps. That percentage has dropped every week of the season. Last week, it bottomed out at 33%.
MORE: Early Week 6 Start/Sit Advice
Following a similar path, Gibson smashed in Week 1 with 20 PPR fantasy points. He finished inside the top 12 running backs that week. Since then, his weekly fantasy point total has dropped every week of the season. Last week, it bottomed out at 6.9 points.
Week 5 marked the rookie’s first regular season NFL game. Coming back from multiple gunshot wounds, the team easily could’ve just given him a couple of carries to get his feet wet. Instead, Robinson carried the ball nine times. He played just four fewer snaps than Gibson. As a result of Robinson’s return, Gibson had a season-low three carries.
McKissic was already lowering Gibson’s weekly ceiling. Now, a two-man backfield has become three. Although, I’m not entirely sure that will continue. It might just remain a two-man backfield, except with Robinson as the other guy with McKissic.
Through five weeks, McKissic’s target share sits at 14.7%. That’s ninth-most amongst running backs. Gibson’s is actually 9.8%, which is a respectable 23rd. Unfortunately, I only see that decreasing going forward.
While Robinson isn’t necessarily going to take targets away from Gibson, he will take snaps away. Gibson can’t get targets when he’s not on the field. Meanwhile, McKissic’s snap share has been consistent this season. He’s around 40% as his floor, and that bumps over 50% when the Commanders face negative game script.
The good news for Gibson is the Commanders should either be leading or never trailing by more than a single score against the Bears. That will keep Gibson in play, as they won’t need McKissic in the backfield playing catch-up.
Should Fantasy Managers Start Antonio Gibson?
The Bears are allowing 21.8 ppg to opposing running backs. They rank in the middle of the pack. This matchup is relatively neutral. However, the decision to start Gibson has little to do with the opponent. This is entirely based on what this backfield split might look like.
Gibson is the RB29 in our Week 6 running back rankings. It’s hard out there for fantasy managers at the running back position. Between injuries and bye weeks, fringe fantasy backs get bumped up into starter-worthy territory.
On a Thursday night, I would not force Gibson into any fantasy lineups. It’s certainly possible you don’t have a better option. My concern is Gibson’s floor appears nonexistent at this point.
He may very well only see 3-5 carries. That’s too big of a risk. Fantasy managers should only start Gibson if they literally do not have a choice.