If you’re playing a Green Bay Packers vs. New England Patriots DFS lineup for Sunday in Week 4, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.
The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.
Recommended Packers vs. Patriots DFS lineup
Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five Flex players. The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data.
[bet-promo id=”160004″ ]Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes. Criteria such as age, durability, shifting personnel, schedule, and other factors help shape these final assessments.
Packers DFS considerations
Aaron Rodgers has been a top-nine fantasy QB each year he’s started at least 10 games. He’s currently the QB26. That, in a nutshell, is the state of Green Bay’s once-electric passing attack.
With Davante Adams now in Las Vegas, Rodgers has had to make do with a collection of often-injured, mostly untested receivers. We can’t insert Rodgers into our DFS lineup thinking he’ll return adequate value. Instead, starting him requires a leap of faith.
Rodgers clearly seems safer in this run-friendly offense, which is 11th in the league in rushing attempts while posting a very respectable 4.7 yards per carry. While Aaron Jones has comfortably outperformed AJ Dillon so far, this backfield’s pecking order remains up in the air. Yes, Jones is the nominal starter, while Dillon has earned more totes. But it could be a toss-up for most of the season. Betting on both would be a good hedge in 50/50 competitions.
At receiver, Romeo Doubs has catapulted from long-shot rookie receiver to (possibly) Rodgers’ WR1. As always, we have to consider DFS price when evaluating him and every other prominent and semi-prominent Green Bay pass catcher. Is a possible 15 points from Doubs worth it if we can get 6-8 points from a much cheaper option? This question is particularly important if we believe this game will be low-scoring, with the Packers feasting on a subpar opposing offense.
Patriots DFS considerations
Surprisingly (or not surprisingly), the back injury to Mac Jones might not impact this offense dramatically. Through three weeks, only eight teams have thrown less than the Patriots, who are tied with a league-worst two passing TDs. A Brian Hoyer-led offense shouldn’t make this unit materially better or worse.
That should make things easier for us while crafting this lineup. Because barring unusual circumstances (like DeVante Parker’s shocking 156 yards last weekend), none of New England’s receivers are good DFS investments. Parker, Jakobi Meyers, Nelson Agholor, Kendrick Bourne, Jonnu Smith, and Hunter Henry already bring relatively low ceilings to the table. Factor in the Packers’ defense (yielding the seventh-fewest receiving yards), and it’s clear why fading the Patriots’ receivers makes sense.
But the backfield? Well, that’s a bit different. Hoyer hasn’t played a full game since Week 10 in 2019 with Indianapolis, when his backfield ran the ball 27 times while getting targeted eight times. That seems about right for Sunday, with Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson trying to push through a Packers line that’s given up a healthy 4.9 yards per carry. The big question is whether we should hedge with both RBs, or choose one and hope for the best.
Recommended DFS lineup
I believe Green Bay will take this one, and that it won’t be pretty. I’m betting on a ground-game-focused effort on both sides. Doubs ($8,800) is now officially “expensive,” meaning he’d need a blow-up performance to be worth the price, and a sizable floor to be worth the risk. He has neither in a receiving corps that still hasn’t anointed him the unquestioned No. 1.
This lineup features four RBs, beginning with Aaron Jones ($12,000 normally, $18,000 as Captain) in our Captain slot. He has the highest ceiling in this game. Joining him are Dillon ($7,800), Harris ($7,400), and Stevenson ($7,200). Among these two tandems, we might assume a combined 35+ points at minimum and around 60 points at most. Our eyes are firmly focused on “most.” Multiple goal-line scores seems realistic in a battle between two teams that might have trouble in the passing game.
Finally, I’d recommend Robert Tonyan ($5,000) and Mason Crosby ($4,200). If the currently questionable Meyers sits, then I’d replace Tonyan with the boom-bust Nelson Agholor ($5,400). But if Meyers plays, it would simply be too difficult to trust any one New England receiver. Tonyan would be viewed as “safe” if this game is as run-heavy as I believe it will be.