The Sheep Report: Week 9 takeaways and early NFL odds analysis

The Pro Football Network betting team put together a solid NFL Week 9 performance, highlighted by an enormous outing by the Prop Master Jason Sarney. After a rough two weeks, we were able to analyze where our mistakes were being made and focus our energy in the right places. As a team, we are up nearly seven units on the season! The Sheep Report is put together every week to summarize each handicapper and give readers a look at the early Week 10 NFL odds. We also take a look at some of the early lines to see where the public and professional money is. Will you follow the herd and join the public or break away and go against the money?

NFL Week 10 opening lines (BetOnline):

LAC @ OAK -1.5
BUF @ CLE -3
ARI @ TB -5.5
BAL @ CIN N/A
NYG @ NYJ +1.5
KC @ TEN N/A
ATL @ NO -13
DET @ CHI -3
MIA @ IND -13
CAR @ GB -6
LAR @ PIT +4
MIN @ DAL N/A
SEA @ SF -6.5

BYE Weeks: DEN, HOU, JAX, NE, PHI, WAS

— Odds Shark (@OddsShark) November 4, 2019

NFL Picks: The Week 9 PFN rundown

Whether it be on our Against the Spread podcast, numerous articles on the site, or our live Twitter plays, we will always do our best to bring profitable NFL picks to our subscribers. Sports betting is not easy, and we are here to ensure that you have all the information necessary to give you a chance to win. Here is a look at how each handicapper did in their respective category.

Ben Rolfe: Totals Expert

Totals can be the most challenging market to get a handle on, and our Totals Expert has struggled this year. Ben put his focus on team totals this week, but a number of his teams decided not to show. Ben was hoping to get the wins early, with a team total over on Jacksonville in the United Kingdom. Unfortunately, even if the Jaguars were used to the overseas game, rookie quarterback Gardner Minshew was not. He struggled, and the team put up only three points.

He did hit the nail on the head with his Tampa Bay team total over. His analysis was spot on, expecting a shootout in Seattle.

“The Buccaneers offense, which is firing under new head coach Bruce Arians, have only scored under 23 points once in their last five games, and that came against a very stingy Titans defense.”

That was precisely what we got, with a 40-34 loss in overtime. Jameis Winston and Bruce Arians put together another solid offensive performance, but couldn’t overcome the excellent play of Russell Wilson.

2019 Record: -9 units

Jason Sarney: The Prop Master

The aforementioned Prop Master came into the week off a successful performance from Thursday night. On Sunday, he added a 5-4 record but hit both of his two-unit “Play of the Day” bets. Doubling up on DeAndre Hopkins receptions and anytime touchdown scorer.

“There is a holy trifecta leading off the Week 9 prop bets, and an easy receptions total of over 6.5 can be had by the opening drive of the second half. With odds at -152 for that, you will have to tolerate that hefty vig, but it is a near certainty Hopkins can hit closer to 10 catches than five.”

Jason wasn’t far off, Hopkins had eight total receptions with a TD. He also expected the Eagles to feed Jordan Howard against his former team in the Bears. He thought Howard would have more than 14.5 carries, and he finished the game with a solid 19.

2019 Record: +5 units

Chris Smith: Handicapping Specialist

Pro Football Network’s Handicapping Specialist put together a solid week thanks to some All-Access pass plays on Twitter! Chris is a professional at seeing edges when a game is being played, and it is crucial that you follow our account to cash in on these wins!

On top of the Twitter winners, Chris has also given out nine straight survivor plays. If you are following his picks, you are still alive heading into Week 10!

2019 Record: +1.8 units

James Aguirre: The Volatility Expert

The Volatility Expert has a bounce-back performance this past week. Using some advanced metrics, he was able to pinpoint the winners in several games. He also got involved in the player prop market and gave a Kittle to score winner Thursday night at even money.

The tides are slowly turning for James. After a rough few weeks, he put together a 6-6 record but with multiple plus money winners. He and Chris also put out a +565 winner in the perfectly worded Sundays are for the Dogs Twitter play. This week, the guys were on Baltimore and the Chargers to win straight up!

2019 Record: +3.25 units

Against the Spread Podcast NFL Picks

The ATS podcast continues to bring in profits with another winning week. The most interesting part of the podcast this week was the disagreement between hosts regarding the Miami Dolphins. Ryan Gosling felt like they could get their first win against the lowly New York Jets. Jason Sarney was unsure that Miami had the talent to do so. The plus money bet was a winner for the podcast and another head-to-head winner for Ryan.

The only loss on the podcast was the same as our Totals Expert. We thought that the Jaguars would come out strong in London, but they were nowhere to be found. Either way, it was another great week.

2019 Record: +6 units

Week 10 NFL odds and early action

Taking a look at some of the opening NFL odds, there are two games that the public and sharps have jumped on. Will we join the herd or break away?

Detroit Lions at the Chicago Bears:

74% of the bets and 64% of the money on the Lions +3.5

This number is being hit and hit hard. It opened at 3.5 and is already down below the key number of three. It won’t surprise me if the Lions are eventually favorites on the road in Chicago. The way the Bears played last week, the public has been completely turned off by the Mitchell Trubisky led offense.

Trubisky has regressed this season, and it was evident against the Eagles defense. Outside of two drives in the second half, Trubisky looked overwhelmed and struggled to move the ball. In a first half in which Chicago netted only 9 total yards of offense, Trubisky and the Bears were 0-for-6 on third downs. Pocket awareness and anticipation still seem to be a problem for Trubisky.

The Lions have also struggled this year, losing another tightly contested battle to the Oakland Raiders. The difference between the Lions and the Bears? The Lions offense has been electric. Matthew Stafford has the second-most passing yards in the NFL, and the team has been able to put up points each week.

I am going to join the public here and grab the Lions. They are the better team, and even if it is on the road, Stafford should be able to put up points on a Bears defense that has shown holes.

Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts:

71% of the bets and 95% of the money on the over 44.5

The aforementioned Miami Dolphins got their first win last week at home in a surprisingly dominant fashion. Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for nearly 300 yards and three touchdowns. His number one weapon Preston Williams went for 75 yards and two TDs. The Jets defense looked awful and were missing five of their starting linebackers. This week they will be going face to face with the Colts defense.

It is astonishing this over is being pounded as much as it is. Williams has been announced as out for the year, giving this Miami offense one less weapon. There is also a chance Jacoby Brissett is out with a sprain.

I believe that too much emphasis is being put on what Miami did last week. Fitzpatrick will not be able to do the same on the road against a much more fierce competitor in the Colts. Even if backup Brian Hoyer can put up points on Miami, I don’t think that the Dolphins will put up enough to reach this over. I will break away from the herd and take the under 44.5.

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