Fantasy football is more than just the weekly head-to-head game we’ve all grown to love. On Underdog Fantasy, managers can put their player-projection skills to the test by predicting player stat lines. Here are my top Underdog Pick’em plays for the Thursday Night Football Pick’em contest surrounding the Miami Dolphins and Cincinnati Bengals.
Top Underdog Pick’ems for Thursday Night Football
Underdog Pick’ems allows fantasy managers to predict stat lines and fantasy-point totals for almost all fantasy-relevant players. You can make two picks that pay out 3x your entry fee or add more selections to your entry for higher payouts. The levels are 3x, 6x, 10x, and 20x, progressing with each additional pick’em you add to your entry. Let’s take a look at this week’s Underdog Pick’ems.
Tyreek Hill higher than 13.75 fantasy points
I’m buying into a whole host of narratives that lead to Tyreek Hill having a big game Thursday night.
First, he’s the healthiest receiver on the Dolphins. Jaylen Waddle is going to play, but it’s a short week, and he’s dealing with some sort of groin issue. Second, Hill has personally called out Eli Apple. Mike McDaniel seems like the type of head coach who will facilitate Hill roasting Apple for a long touchdown.
Third, Hill can top 13.75 fantasy points without scoring. Of course, if he finds the end zone, then he only needs about four or five catches for 60 yards. But even if he doesn’t score, Hill can catch seven passes for a little over 100 yards to get there.
Hill is coming off a game where he caught just two of four targets for 33 yards. I like him to bounce back in a big way tonight.
Joe Mixon higher than 66.5 rushing yards
Since his stellar Week 1 performance, Joe Mixon has been trending downward. His carry count went from 27 to 19 to 12. His rushing yards went from 82 to 57 to 24. The Dolphins allow 56.7 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs. While that’s lower than Mixon’s projection, it’s the third-highest rate in the league.
The Bengals are at home on a short week in what should be a close game where game script doesn’t force either team to play a certain way. Mixon’s issue so far has been inefficiency. He’s averaging a career-worst 2.8 yards per carry. Unless Mixon is suddenly bad (spoiler: he’s not), I’m chalking this up to just a bad three-game stretch.
Mixon is primed for a bounce back, and I think it comes Thursday night against Miami. Look for Mixon to turn 15+ carries into well over 70 yards tonight. That’s higher than his 66.5 projection. Not so hot take: Mixon has his first 100-yard rushing effort this evening.
Tyler Boyd lower than 4 receptions
I absolutely love this spot with Tyler Boyd. He’s coming off a 105-yard game where he scored a 56-yard touchdown. That’s the key, here. His massive Week 3 performance came from one play. Otherwise, Boyd was the same Boyd he’s always been. Whenever Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins both play, Boyd is a distant WR3.
Boyd’s target share this season is just 11.4%. He’s run the 11th-most routes at an average of 40 per game but has just an 11.7% targets-per-route-run rate. Boyd’s average depth of target and team air yards share rank outside the top 70 amongst wide receivers.
Through three games, Boyd has yet to catch more than four receptions. In 2021, Boyd caught more than four balls a mere six times. One of those times was when Higgins did not play. Boyd may land directly on this number, but he’s unlikely to have more than four. At worst, it will void.
Hayden Hurst lower than 27.5 receiving yards
After amassing 15 targets over his first two games, Hayden Hurst saw just two last week, catching one for seven yards.
Hurst did have 46 yards on five receptions in Week 1. However, in Week 2, Hurst again caught five passes but managed just 24 yards.
Hurst’s 13.8% target share is 17th at the position. His rate of 18.3% targets per route run rate is 27th at the position. He’s a distant fifth option in the receiving game behind Chase, Higgins, Boyd, and Mixon.
The reason I like Hurst lower than 27.5 receiving yards is because he can rack up receptions and still not get there. Hurst’s average depth of target is 3.9 yards. At a mere seven yards per reception average, Hurst could conceivably catch four passes and still not go higher than 27.5 receiving yards. This wins more than it loses.