Tee Higgins’ fantasy football value has been very much up in the air this week as the Cincinnati Bengals WR worked his way through the concussion protocol.
Heading into Sunday morning, he has yet to be cleared but should we expect Higgins to be playing today against the Dallas Cowboys? If he is active, can fantasy managers trust him, and what does it mean for the other options on the roster?
Update: Bengals WR Tee Higgins is officially active for the team’s game against the Dallas Cowboys.
Is Tee Higgins playing today?
Given that we saw Higgins back on the practice field as early as Wednesday, the signs were positive. To even be on the field Wednesday, Higgins had to have made progress through the concussion protocol.
He did miss practice Thursday, but that was due to a personal matter. He was then a full participant in practice on Friday, demonstrating further progress in the protocol.
Entering the weekend, Higgins was listed as questionable. There was optimism he could be cleared Saturday, but that was not the case. However, on Sunday morning, NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reported that “barring a setback, he’s (Higgins) expected to play today.”
Of course, we need to wait for official confirmation to be sure, and that may not come until after the 1 p.m. ET games have kicked off. That leaves fantasy managers in limbo when setting their Week 2 lineups.
Should fantasy managers start Higgins in Week 2?
If we find out that Higgins has cleared the protocol, he is a player you look to start as you normally would. When it comes to clearing the concussion protocol, things are usually pretty clear-cut.
A player can either play or he cannot. It is not like a groin or hamstring injury where a player is playing at less than 100 percent. The protocol should ensure that anyone less than 100 percent does not step on the field.
The problem comes if we have not heard about Higgins’ status officially before the 1 p.m. ET window. That could put fantasy managers in a bind. If all of your other starting options are playing in the early afternoon, then you may have to leave Higgins on the bench this week. Concussions are tough to call, and there is no guarantee that Higgins will be cleared for this week.
However, if you have other options you can call on from your bench, then that somewhat relieves your stress. If Higgins is then activated, you can start him. However, if he is not cleared, you have somewhere else to turn.
A solution to the first situation would be to drop the last man on your roster and add an insurance option in the later windows, just in case. Additionally, by ensuring you put Higgins in as a flex this morning, you give yourself the option to turn to running backs and tight ends later, as opposed to just wide receivers.
What are Higgins’ projections on Underdog this week?
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Higgins’ projections on Underdog this week are intriguing. They have him set for 4.5 receptions and 58.5 receiving yards. Looking back on last year’s numbers, those projections look light. Higgins averaged 5.29 receptions and 77.9 receiving yards per game during that stretch. Last week, he already had two receptions and 27 yards when he had to leave the game in the first half.
Over the past two years, Higgins averages five receptions and 72.8 receiving yards when Burrow is active. Without him, those numbers were considerably lower. On a per-game basis, Higgins has had more than 4.5 receptions 17 times in 28 games that he played a full part. Additionally, he has had more than 58.5 receiving yards on 16 occasions.
Therefore, both make for intriguing projections to consider going higher on if he is cleared to play this week.
What is the fantasy impact if Higgins is inactive?
There are some intriguing takeaways looking at the Bengals’ receivers when Higgins is active or inactive. It is a small sample size, but when Higgins has been absent for three games, Ja’Marr Chase sees around a 33 percent decline in fantasy production.
In those three games, his targets, receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns are all lower. It is a small sample size, so it could be a coincidence, or it could be a result of teams being better able to focus their coverage on Chase when Higgins is absent.
In contrast, Tyler Boyd sees a slight increase in fantasy output when Higgins is inactive. Again, the same size is small, but Higgins sees a 1.5 increase in targets per game, resulting in around one more reception and 10 more receiving yards per game. It is a small increase, but one that fantasy managers should be weighing this week if Higgins is unable to play.
When Higgins left the game last week, it was Mike Thomas who saw more playing time. He sits behind Higgins on the Bengals depth chart, so that certainly makes sense. Thomas was targeted a total of five times last week, four of which came in the second half. All five targets came after Higgins left the game in the second quarter.
Additionally, three of Thomas’ targets came in the red zone. That is intriguing for deep leagues if Higgins is out. He could be a deep-league option this week, given that red zone usage increases his potential for a big fantasy output resulting from a potential touchdown. However, if Higgins is active, Thomas has little to no fantasy value.