There is nothing quite like entering an NFL Sunday with a win already under your belt. That is right where we stand with our expert handicapper, Chris Smith, who is up one unit this week. Thanks to San Francisco’s outright victory over Kyler Murray and the Cardinals on Thursday night, he completed the second leg of his teaser. Chris is now just over .500 on the season and up two units. If you follow along on the All-Access twitter page, you know that Chris already locked up a Week 9 Survivor Pool winner with the 49ers. Now, on to the NFL Week 9 game picks.
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NFL Week 9 Game Picks
Jets -3 (-110) risk $27.50 to win $25
I had the Miami Dolphins at +21 points as the first leg of my teaser on Monday Night in Pittsburgh. Despite jumping out to a 14-0 first-quarter lead, the Dolphins still made the three-touchdown cushion a sweat in the final minutes.
This week, they come back home to Miami but on short rest with former coach Adam Gase looking to gain some measure of revenge on his former team. This feels like a game where Sam Darnold leans on Le’Veon Bell out of the backfield, and the New York Jets put points on the board against a Miami secondary without their best player in Xavien Howard, who is done for the season.
While the Dolphins have won five of the last six contests between these divisional rivals, the Jets have covered the spread in fifteen of their previous twenty visits to South Beach. I’ll give the three points with the Jets in a game I think they win by a touchdown or more.
Tommy Teaser (6.5 points) – Bills -3 & Jaguars +8 (-130) risk $25 to $19.25
My infamous alter-ego Tommy Teaser is a solid 9-6-1 on the season but with an ROI of less than one unit earned. He looks to get that turned around bright and early on the East Coast with the Jacksonville Jaguars covering an eight-point teased betting line in London.
The Jags are a popular underdog pick this week, and I love them getting a touchdown plus against a Texans team without J.J. Watt. This Jaguars defense is one that has traditionally given Deshaun Watson fits, and with this being the first trip across the pond for Houston, I like Jacksonville to stay within a touchdown.
The second leg of our teaser has the Buffalo Bills covering a field goal at home against the Washington Redskins. Ohio State product Dwayne Haskins will be making his first career start against a Bills defense still licking their wounds after the Philadelphia Eagles ran roughshod over them last weekend. No way would I suggest laying double digits with the Bills in this spot, but teasing the spread down to -3 makes it much more palatable.
Cold weather and strong winds are on the docket in Buffalo this weekend, which should neutralize Terry McLaurin. Also, Adrian Peterson might not suit up after missing practice all week. I’m expecting a breakout performance from Devin Singletary on Sunday, so sneak him into your DFS lineups as well.
Browns -2.5 (-110) risk $27.50 to win $25
I don’t get too caught up in closing line value because you don’t get paid based on winning that battle, but I was certainly glad to get Cleveland before the news of Joe Flacco’s injury bumped this line to the four-point range.
The Denver Broncos will turn over the reigns to backup quarterback Brandon Allen. If Cleveland Browns coach Freddie Kitchens was ever going to have an opportunity to salvage the season and potentially his job, it’s this week in Mile High.
Baker Mayfield and Odell Beckham Jr. may struggle against a strong Broncos secondary, but I expect Nick Chubb to have enough chunks of yardage to lead the Browns to the road win they desperately need. Getting this line at less than a field goal was essential as I forecast about a 20-16 final score in favor of Cleveland.
Oakland-Detroit Over 49.5 (-115) risk $28.75 to win $25
Last weekend I grabbed the OVER when the Oakland Raiders traveled to Houston to take on the Texans. While that total pushed, we come right back to the Silver and Black at home against the Detroit Lions this weekend. Matthew Stafford has helped lead the Lions toward hitting the Over in five of their seven games so far, and their defensive secondary is depleted by both trades and injuries. All signs are pointing towards a shootout in this one.
My only concern is the Raiders potentially slowing this game down via Josh Jacobs. Even then, Jacobs might have enough explosive runs to negate any melting of the clock and allow that Lions offense back onto the field. I’m not the only one thinking this game total plays into the 50s as the “Against the Spread” guys also have this total in play in their podcast.
Survivor Play
Week 1 – Seattle Seahawks ✅
Week 2 – New England Patriots ✅
Week 3 – Dallas Cowboys ✅
Week 4 – San Diego Chargers ✅
Week 5 – Philadelphia Eagles ✅
Week 6 – Baltimore Ravens ✅
Week 7 – Buffalo Bills ✅
Week 8 -LA Rams ✅
Week 9 – SF 49ers ✅
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