If you’re making Los Angeles Rams vs. Atlanta Falcons DFS picks for Sunday in Week 2, then you’ve come to the right place.
We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.
The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.
Rams vs. Falcons DFS picks
Today we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five Flex players. The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data.
[bet-promo id=”149453″ ]Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes. Criteria such as age, durability, shifting personnel, schedule, and other factors help shape these final assessments.
Rams DFS considerations
The Rams are still a good team. Maybe even a great team. Perhaps Buffalo’s all-world defense, combined with LA’s work-in-progress backfield and elbow-tendinitis-QB passing attack, was the perfect storm of opening-night chaos. These Rams are still the reigning champions. Their running game should improve as the year goes on. (I’m still very high on Cam Akers long term.)
If any team can retool, this one can. And they’re facing an Atlanta defense that yielded the fourth-most points in the league last year. Granted, they were also the first defense in 30+ seasons not to give up a 40+ yard pass play — although that streak ended last week at the hands of Jameis Winston and Jarvis Landry. Assuming the Rams do a much better job holding onto the ball and controlling field position, they’ll dominate our DFS card.
Falcons DFS considerations
Meanwhile, Marcus Mariota looked better as a rusher than as a passer in his first NFL start in nearly three years. If he can’t adequately feed Kyle Pitts and Drake London, this game could be over by halftime, with or without the ageless wonder Cordarrelle Patterson.
We should consider the strong possibility that Mariota will be forced into passing mode early and often. That should favor Patterson if the price is right, as he is fairly game-script proof. As good as Younghoe Koo is, if Atlanta’s down 20 points in the third quarter, are they really kicking field goals inside the Rams’ 40 if it’s fourth down and less than six? I suspect Mariota will need to throw 20+ times in the second half. The question is how much he converts.
The Falcons’ offense is tricky to bet on. They’ve laid down the roots for long-term success. But in DFS, we need high ceilings, especially for high-priced players. Someone like Kyle Pitts needs at least (roughly) a 7-50-1 receiving line to justify his cost. That’s not asking a lot of him alone. It’s asking a lot of Mariota and an aerial attack that has much more to prove.
Recommended DFS lineup
Because I’m envisioning the Rams winning by 20+ points, I cannot confidently invest big DFS money on any Atlanta starters. As a result, this is a Rams-dominated lineup led by their D/ST ($5,000 normally, $7,500 as Captain), which I’m putting in the Captain slot. That gives us space to add Matthew Stafford ($11,600), Cooper Kupp ($13,200), and Allen Robinson ($6,800).
Why Robinson? Because he had a good camp, and getting shut down by Buffalo isn’t an accurate indicator (yet) of his potential in a Rams uniform. This team needs to get him going, and I believe it’ll happen today.
As for L.A.’s backfield, Darrell Henderson clearly is safer ($8,800) than Cam Akers ($5,200). The ultimate ceiling play would place Akers in our lineup and invest the rest in perhaps Olamide Zaccheaus or Matt Gay. But we simply don’t know what to expect from Akers in Week 2; he’s a better rest-of-season investment.
Henderson’s addition leaves us with $2,100. As long as he’s active, I’d start KhaDarel Hodge ($1,200) and hope he nets another 5+ points. Again, this lineup will be won or lost (I believe) based on what the Rams’ top playmakers do. So in that context, a cheap Hodge makes sense.