If you’re making Detroit Lions vs. Washington Commanders DFS picks for Sunday in Week 2, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations. The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.
Lions vs. Commanders DFS picks
Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five Flex players. The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data.
[bet-promo id=”149453″ ]Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes. Criteria such as age, durability, shifting personnel, schedule, and other factors help shape these final assessments.
Lions DFS considerations
If I told you I’m strongly considering starting Jared Goff this week in my fantasy league, would you be surprised? Concerned? Upset because I’m playing against you (or not playing against you)?
As PFN Pass subscribers know, Goff was my biggest preseason QB bargain among all non-top-12 fantasy QBs. His early-season schedule in particular is compelling enough to take notice of, and his improved (and healthy) offensive weapons make him a far more intriguing flier than he was for most of last season.
In crafting a DFS lineup for this potentially high-scoring game, we need to understand Goff’s value. Is he as good as I think he is, or is he hampering this offense? At a minimum, we can’t understate the impact of big-boom players like D’Andre Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown. But our final lineup decisions require us to pick a side on Goff.
Commanders DFS considerations
Back in April, I tweeted that Carson Wentz was a “screaming buy at his QB25 ranking.” Through Week 9 last season, he was on pace for 4,152 passing yards and 32 touchdowns . . . and only six interceptions. Then he started to struggle, the Colts went RB-heavy with Jonathan Taylor, and the rest is history.
Wentz has always been a “good” NFL starter. Sometimes great. Sometimes below-average. But on balance, he’s delivered when healthy, despite shockingly having only one WR exceed 500 receiving yards across the past three seasons. Like Goff, the QB he followed at No. 2 overall in the 2016 NFL Draft, Wentz has several capable receivers and a catch-friendly backfield.
Aside from the seemingly safe Antonio Gibson, the biggest questions concern a receiving corps with no clear No. 1 or No. 2. Yes, Terry McLaurin has been the team’s No. 1 in each of the three prior seasons. But if last week is any indication, a new QB and a beefed-up (and healthy) receiving corps could make this an unpredictable group.
Recommended DFS lineup
When crafting DFS lineups, sometimes two or three players jump off the screen. Other times, 10-12 players fly off the screen. This is one of those games where 10-12 players are strong candidates to finish in the top six, and that doesn’t even include the possibility of a D/ST touchdown, which often upends even the best-laid DFS plans.
I’m going with DJ Chark in the Captain slot ($7,200 normally, $10,800 as Captain), in part because he shares St. Brown’s optimal ceiling but at a lower price point. This means we’ll have more cap space to reach for five other strong players, including St. Brown ($9,800).
I’d also advise taking Jamaal Williams ($5,200) and Antonio Gibson ($10,200). While Gibson brings a great deal of risk at that steep price, we’re assuming what we’ve seen the last 2+ seasons are indicative of who he is: a mostly game-script-proof RB with weekly breakout potential. As for Williams, what are the odds that Detroit will take it easy with oft-injured (and currently hobbled) star D’Andre Swift? Williams brings a low floor, as well as a sizable ceiling if the Lions opt to lean on him more than usual.
That leaves $14,000 for two players. While I try to avoid chasing points among players who aren’t weekly fantasy starters, it’s hard to do that for two teams that had a combined nine touchdowns last weekend. Curtis Samuel ($7,000) and Jahan Dotson ($6,400) will compete with the more expensive Terry McLaurin for a plurality (or possibly a majority) of looks. They’re strong plays if we believe Washington will move the ball well against a sub-par defense.