Week 1 of the 2022 NFL season is in the books. After each week’s slate of games wraps up, we’ll be updating you weekly on the best NFL MVP betting odds. With that, we’ll highlight the biggest risers and fallers for you to consider betting on.
NFL MVP Week 1 Risers
Winning the MVP Award is difficult because of the number of factors involved. The best candidates have the right blend of narrative for the public to embrace their MVP campaign, the statistical achievements needed to win, and team success. It’s critical for any serious candidate to have all three criteria met. Let’s dive into Week 1’s most notable risers.
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles (+1600)
Not many passers complete just 56.25% of their passes and see their MVP betting odds increase in a week, but Jalen Hurts is far from the normal candidate. The third-year playmaker didn’t have the gaudy passing numbers of his peers, with only 243 yards and zero touchdowns. But he was solid against the Detroit Lions, adding 90 yards and a score with his legs.
Hurts’ MVP odds jumped from +2000 to +1600 as the Eagles became the prohibitive favorite with Dak Prescott out for the next four-to-six weeks with a thumb injury. While we’ve been buying the Eagles’ outlook all offseason (and will continue to), this might be your last chance to get Hurts with any MVP value. The question is whether he can produce like an MVP passer.
Upcoming games against the Commanders, Jaguars, and Cardinals from Week 3-5 are extremely favorable for his stat-padding. Hurts will likely need to reach 4,000 passing yards and 1,000 rushing yards to win MVP, which is a huge jump from last year’s production. He’s worth sprinkling a unit on as a longshot who isn’t a dark horse anymore.
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (+750)
Justin Herbert can be extremely impressive while also not being incredibly impactful. His stat line against the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 1 was tremendous, as he racked up 26 completions on 34 attempts for 279 yards and three scores. He also avoided any sacks against a terrific defensive line.
Herbert certainly looked the part in key moments against the Raiders, and the Chargers earned the narrow victory. His flash plays are good enough for him to win MVP. His strong arm, athleticism, and downfield throwing are among the NFL’s best quarterbacks.
His odds jumped from +1000 to +750 for a good reason. The Chargers were pegged as a possible upset victim this week, but Herbert played about as well as he could to prevent that. He’s a major threat to winning the award and is now amongst the top favorites.
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills (+500)
The favorite to win MVP hung a true MVP-caliber performance to open the season. Josh Allen was brilliant against the Los Angeles Rams with the world-watching. It’s remarkable his +600 odds dropped to +500, but Allen was cerebral and precise throughout the evening.
Concerns over how Allen would perform without Brian Daboll were quickly answered as Ken Dorsey continued to draw up timely misdirection and creative play calls. Allen took advantage of quick passing concepts, totaling 26 completions on 31 attempts and 297 yards. He threw two interceptions, but they were on dropped passes.
Allen’s upside as a rusher and increased efficiency as a passer has made him arguably the scariest weapon in the NFL. He quietly added 56 yards and a score on the ground. He is the Bills’ offense, a unique brag few others can claim.
Upcoming matchups for the Bills against Tennessee, Miami, Baltimore, and Kansas City will all but determine Allen’s MVP case.
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins (+4000)
Jumping from +7000 is Tua Tagovailoa. The Dolphins‘ quarterback put on an efficient performance against the New England Patriots in his debut under head coach Mike McDaniel. He completed 23 passes on 33 attempts for 270 yards and one score.
Tagovailoa looked sharp and more confident surrounded by Tyreek Hill, Cedrick Wilson, and an improved set of pass blockers along the offensive line. The 24-year-old took advantage of the speed and upgraded talent around him, showing trust in Jaylen Waddle and Hill on several tight passing windows. They rewarded him with star-level plays.
Tua won’t win MVP because he’s not physically gifted enough or has the style of play that endears him to voters. But he deserves recognition for a well-played game against a tough foe. He’s on pace to cement himself as the Dolphins’ franchise quarterback sooner than later.
NFL MVP Week 1 fallers
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers (+1200)
As much as I love watching Aaron Rodgers play, I still can’t believe he won the MVP last year, considering how much better he was in the previous season. Alas, 2022 looks like a frustrating campaign filled with disappointment.
The Packers‘ decision to rely on uneven rookies and veterans at wide receiver proved costly in Week 1 as they struggled to be in position and finish at the catch point.
Rodgers wasn’t shy about expressing his feelings using non-verbal cues throughout the game. The broadcast panned to his frustrated face after every incompletion. It wasn’t surprising to see Rodgers already wanting more from a unit that was clearly one of the worst in the NFL.
Some things might change, but between having a worse surrounding cast and MVP fatigue after back-to-back award-winning seasons, Rodgers will not win the award in 2022-23. His numbers will be much less impressive, and the splash plays will be less frequent. Plus, the narrative has soured more on Rodgers after another postseason failure last year.
Rodgers fell from +1000 to +1200, and that number should eventually drop even more to the +2000 range.
Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams (+2000)
Some declines or rough performances are predictable but what happened to Matthew Stafford on opening night against the Bills was frightening. Sure, the Bills have a terrific pass rush and secondary talent, but Stafford was well off his game. He totaled three bad interceptions and took seven sacks on the evening.
There was also a complete lack of trust in any of his playmakers not named Cooper Kupp. Allen Robinson wasn’t brought in to spend money on a decoy. He was often seen emerging as an open receiver upon review of the tape, but Stafford wanted to force-feed Kupp.
Add in the reports of an elbow injury, the lack of a running game, and a defense that is worse without Von Miller, the Rams aren’t the same team as they were last year. Stafford will have better games, but his MVP value isn’t there. He dropped from +1500 to +2000 after his terrible performance.
Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1200)
We rarely see Tom Brady’s MVP odds drop from +800 to +1200 so quickly. Brady played decently in his first game of the year, totaling 212 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. But it came on Sunday Night Football, and he didn’t light it up as we’ve become accustomed to.
Brady still has the strong narrative of being in his final season to work with. He’ll also benefit from the deep array of playmakers that no other offense can compete with. The fact that Julio Jones looked like the old Julio is another star on this unit.
I love jumping on Brady’s falling MVP odds. He’s one of the best candidates this season and, realistically, one of only a small handful of realistic winners. Take him now, or be willing to roll the dice as the Buccaneers play New Orleans, Green Bay, and Kansas City in the coming weeks.