Week 1 is in the books, and now things are getting real. It’s time for Thursday Night Football, and if you’re making Chiefs vs. Chargers prop bets for Week 2, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated as well as fall short of expectations. All prop bets are based on DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel.
Chiefs vs. Chargers prop bets to target
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics culled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes. Criteria such as age, durability, shifting personnel, scheduling, and other factors help shape these final assessments.
Patrick Mahomes vs. Justin Herbert prop bets
DraftKings offers a couple of prop bets that seem intriguing given the likeliest game scripts. One has Mahomes netting more passing yards than Herbert, while the other has Mahomes completing more passes. I like both in a contest that should feature a steady barrage of Mahomes against an L.A. squad playing on the road in a short week. Questions surrounding Keenan Allen’s health make this a more concerning issue for Herbert, as it’s unclear how much Mike Williams would fill any void and whether Joshua Palmer and DeAndre Carter can fight through the Chiefs’ secondary.
Mahomes more passing yards than Herbert (-145)
Mahomes more completions than Herbert (-170)
Herbert under 277.5 passing yards (-114)
Herbert under 1.5 passing TDs (+165)
First TD props
About 10 players in today’s game have a realistic shot at finding the end zone first, and we might consider five or six are “favorites.” Based on competitive odds, several of these players are worth betting on. Collectively, they should give us an above-50% chance of doubling our investment. The following bets are based on FanDuel.
[bet-promo id=”160004″ ]Note that first-TD props sometimes hinge on whichever team starts on offense, particularly in matchups featuring two strong offenses. So any combo betting should factor in the possibility that Kansas City or L.A. could begin the game with the ball, which is why we don’t want to make first-TD prop bets centered on only one team.
Travis Kelce (+700)
JuJu Smith-Schuster (+1000)
Mecole Hardman (+1500)
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (+850)
Austin Ekeler (+700)
Gerald Everett (+1600)
Additional Chargers props
How effectively will L.A. move the ball? Arizona certainly struggled at home against these Chiefs last week, and the Chargers playing without their No. 1 WR doesn’t help. However, the Chiefs are dealing with injuries of their own, including losing first-round rookie cornerback Trent McDuffie.
The concern for bettors is anticipating which receivers will step up in Allen’s absence. Conventional wisdom would suggest Mike Williams becomes the clear No. 1. Yet aside from last season’s contract-year breakout, he’s been an incredibly inconsistent producer. Even last year, he had his share of forgettable performances that the “greats” almost never experience.
If we envision Herbert throwing for roughly 220-260 yards, and if a more engaged Austin Ekeler takes on a larger share, then that leaves five receivers inheriting about 180-200 yards: Williams, Joshua Palmer, DeAndre Carter, Tre’ McKitty, and Gerald Everett. We can therefore reverse engineer this realistic outcome to assess the probabilities of two notable pass-catchers exceeding or falling short of FanDuel betting expectations.
Joshua Palmer under 51.5 receiving yards (-114)
Gerald Everett under 39.5 receiving yards (-120)