Now in its fourth season, the fantasy football weather report has become one of my favorite weekly write-ups. With the NFL officially back for the 2022 season, we break down the slate, see what the NFL weather forecast and report for Week 1 will be, and if any of your fantasy football players could be impacted.
As always, good luck. Stay safe. And let’s win the week.
Note: All times are Eastern Time, and the NFL Week 1 weather report will be updated if any changes happen from the time of writing to kickoff. The NFL weather forecast for Week 1 is based on reporting from the National Weather Service. All betting lines are from the NFL’s official website.
NFL Weather Report for Week 1: Rain, wind, and heat make for an intriguing opening slate of action
I still can’t believe we are back. How have you been? Is the family good? I can see you’ve been getting into shape. Good for you. I love what you did with your hair. Me? Well, I’ve been okay, just sitting here in the same chair the last time we talked. But I guess you didn’t come here for the conversation. Straight to the action type, I respect it.
Well, let’s get this weekend going and the stress of fantasy football started. I hope you brought your waders, it could get a bit wet for Week 1.
San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) at Chicago Bears | O/U 40.5 | Sunday 1 p.m. ET
If any game in Week 1 has the chance to be a deluge, this is it. From roughly sunrise to sunset, nearly an inch of rain is forecasted, but it could vary depending on how localized the downpour is, with some models pushing 2+ inches. Kickoff is dead in the middle of the expected rain window, with 0.05″ to 0.08″ expected but possibly upwards of 0.1″ per hour, if not a touch more. Based on the timing, expect a wet field by the time the tap comes off the fresh turf the team laid down in the offseason.
There is even a chance of lightning, placing a delay in the cards as well. Go figure the Windy City decided to also live up to its name, with sustained winds around 15 miles per hour with gusts reaching 25 mph. At least it’ll feel good at around 64 degrees, if that is any consolation.
What does this mean for fantasy in Week 1? Rain, in combination with wind, generally means a bit more rushing or a more conservative passing game. However, to be honest, unless elements are extreme, we sometimes overblow the impact of the weather report on fantasy football. The extremes matter; 20+ sustained winds, a downpour (2019 49ers vs. Washington), heavy snow, extreme heat, and cold. That’s when things really begin to matter.
In 1QB leagues, the only Bears starters are Darnell Mooney and David Montgomery. Cole Kmet is a fringe TE1 but could be the No. 2 target for Justin Fields. Speaking of, outside of 2QB leagues, I’d keep Fields on the bench against the 49ers.
When it comes to the 49ers, I’m in so long as this game doesn’t look like its being played in a swimming pool. Trey Lance, Elijah Mitchell, Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk are all starters — even more so with George Kittle out. At tight end, look for someone like Albert Okwuegbunam, who plays on Monday against Seattle, as a streaming option who could turn into a breakout.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Washington Commanders (-2.5) | O/U 43.5 | Sunday 1 p.m. ET
The fact that it’s going to rain for this game is almost poetic. It’s as if the Football Gods are trying to cleanse these teams of what has transpired over the last few years. For Jacksonville, it’s washing away Urban Meyer and cleaning all the handrails he touched. You don’t want to know where those fingers had been. For Washington, well, that’s an ongoing process, but hey, they got Carson Wentz, so that has to count for something, right?
With rain expected before noon, don’t be surprised if we see a wet kickoff. The peak chances of rain will have passed by then, but we’re still expecting to see precipitation during the game, with the heaviest right before kickoff but hopefully out of the way when the whistle blows.
Beyond that, the rest of the weather forecast for this game is promising. Seventy-four-degree temperatures, six mph winds, and decreasing rain odds give us the hope that once the worst clears, it’s smooth sailing.
Will this be a game that’s the most enjoyable to watch? No, but there are plenty of storylines that will impact fantasy beyond Week 1. Will the acquisition of Wentz help Terry McLaurin, who has been hampered by shotty QB play? Can Antonio Gibson be a reliable starter and secure himself a role once Brian Robinson returns?
Until then, he’ll have to hold off J.D. McKissic, but that’s nothing new. Last year, between Weeks 1-11, before McKissic was injured, Gibson averaged 16.6 carries and 2.7 targets a game as the RB18 in fantasy. I also like Gibson this week (RB15) against a Jags team that gave up the 10th-most yards last year and ranked tied for third-most in touchdowns allowed with 12.
What about Jacksonville, who enters the 2022 season with a new sense of hope under former Super Bowl champion Doug Pederson leading the team? How quickly will the chemistry come between Trevor Lawrence and Christian Kirk? Personally, I think Kirk has a good game against Benjamin St-Juste in the slot. That’s a big deal as St-Juste allowed 24 of 37 passes to be completed for 357 yards (14.9 YPC) with two touchdowns last year.
Then, there is the running game. Travis Etienne Jr. is set to make his NFL debut and has James Robinson ready after avoiding the PUP list. Add in Evan Engram, Marvin Jones Jr., and Zay Jones, and all of a sudden, this game is starting to become more and more interesting. Let’s hope the weather doesn’t change that.
With Chase Young on the PUP, I like the upside of the Jaguars’ new offense against a Washington defense, which ranked 28th in EPA/dropback, 32nd in points to QBs, and 27th in points to WRs last season.
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (-3.5) | O/U 46.5 | Sunday 1 p.m. ET
On a weekend full of rain, it’s almost funny Miami isn’t one of them, outside the typical late-summer 30% chance of a pop-up. But what they do have might be even worse. It’s going to be miserable there. Thanks to humidity and sunny skies, the heat index is expected to be 100-105 degrees.
No sugarcoating it, it’s going to suck. What it also can lead to is missed time, due to managing reps, guys getting gassed, or what I worry about, cramps. When those hit, they become problematic and can keep occurring even with the help of locker room treatments at halftime.
The Dolphins have so many intriguing angles. They have a new head coach in Mike McDaniel and a new rusher in Chase Edmonds (who I love in this offense). They even got some guy named Tyreek Hill. I heard he’s pretty good at football.
I want Tua Tagovailoa to have a good game because he needs it, but New England ranked third in passing DVOA, and he’s averaged just 152 yards against. Ideally, I’d wait a week before starting Tua in 1QB leagues. He comes in as the QB21 on the week in PFN’s Week 1 fantasy football rankings.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5) | O/U 44.5 | Sunday 1 p.m. ET
From a weather standpoint, I’m not overly concerned about how this forecast will impact fantasy football in Week 1. At kickoff, rain chances will be around 50%, with odds rising to 70% by 4 p.m. ET. If it does rain, it would be less than 0.02 in/hr. Winds are also low at five mph, with temperatures hovering around 68 degrees and a heat index of 75.
Things will be different for the Steelers with Mitch Trubisky under center. But who are the Steelers getting? The rookie version that showed a ton of promise or the 2020 version with Matt Nagy?
I hope for the former but bracing for the latter. Honestly, we need Trubisky to play well this year as the Steelers have several fantasy assets on their roster we’re depending on, such as Najee Harris, Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, Chase Claypool, and Pat Freiermuth.
If Trubisky struggles, how many weeks until we see Kenny Pickett? Pickett lit it up in the preseason and seemingly already won the hearts of Steelers fans. Odds are we do see both at some point, but it might not be for quite some time unless Mike Tomlin feels the rookie is the best option to keep his winning-record streak intact.
Cleveland Browns (-1.5) at Carolina Panthers | O/U 41.5 | 1 p.m. ET
Similar to Cincinnati, the overall forecast is not concerning in Charlotte. However, there is a chance of some rain as Baker Mayfield hosts the team who all but threw him out with the trash despite bringing them back to contending-level status.
Precipitation chances range between 20 and 40%, with any rain being extremely light (<.001 in/hr). Winds and temps are also in a great range, with 82 degrees expected, six mph winds, and mostly cloudy skies.
Let’s not get it twisted, this is personal. Trading for Deshaun Watson divided the fanbase, and in a serendipitous moment, go figure they traded Mayfield to the team they’ll be facing in Week 1.
As far as the Browns go, the only players I’m looking at for fantasy are Nick Chubb (RB14) and Kareem Hunt (RB35). I think the running game can work regardless of who is under center.
That’s not the case for Amari Cooper (WR40). I get it if you want to start him, as Cooper is one of the best route runners in the NFL. When Watson is back, he will hover in the WR2 range. But until then, his floor scares me. If you went WR-heavy, maybe wait a week on Cooper.
If not for Mayfield, all I care about is Christian McCaffrey. He has the highest ceiling of anyone lacing up a pair of cleats this weekend. But he needs to keep lacing them up. Since 2018, McCaffrey has averaged 25.6 ppg while finishing as an RB2 or better in 90% of his games. In 2021, he scored 24+ points in four of his six outings. But he’s missed 23 games over the last two years.
How are the Panthers using McCaffrey? Are they limiting his snap count or keeping him out there on 95% of the snaps? What’s the target share look like as McCaffrey’s value comes from his work as a receiver? Is the juice back? Those are just a few of the questions I’ll hope we have answered in Week 1 for fantasy moving forward.
New York Giants at Tennessee Titans (-5.5) | O/U 43.5 | Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
For now, there’s a pretty good chance of rain. Maybe that isn’t the worst thing as nature washes away the regrets made on Broadway Street. I love that place, but that probably says a lot about me.
Unlike Washington, the odds of worsening weather increase over the game’s duration. At the moment, rain is expected to ramp up around noon, with the heaviest (0.07 in/hr) hitting in the third quarter. With it comes a higher chance of lightning. But as with all rain, it only matters if it’s at the stadium. I don’t care if you need a boat in the parking lot so long as the field is good. Luckily, winds will not accompany the rain, with winds forecasted around eight mph and temperatures in the upper 70s even reaching the low 80s.
For me, this game is all about the running backs. Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry, at their best, are top three RBs. But what are they now?
Henry saw a ludicrous amount of volume, but he was also out for half of last season with a foot injury. What does he look like now as the player who returned was not the same King Henry?
The same goes for Barkley. A second-round fantasy pick, Barkley could be the steal of the draft if he returns to the player we saw when he came into the league. However, he lost a year to an ACL tear, and last season was still hampered by it.
If these two can be the players we know they can be, Henry and Barkley will be on numerous fantasy championship rosters. I don’t want to rush to conclusions based on one game, but this is an important one nonetheless.
NFL Weather Report for Week 1: Worry-free weather
The clear weather forecast is a welcome sight for fantasy managers. With that said, there is a 100% chance of chaos.
Denver Broncos (-6.5) at Seattle Seahawks | O/U 44.5 | Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET
I don’t see a way where this game is relatively close. Seattle was already a hit-or-miss team and now is in full rebuild mode, having traded Russell Wilson in the offseason. Somehow they enter the season with Geno Smith as their QB. Not a shot on him, but this feels like complete mismanagement as you can’t tell me there weren’t better options, whether through free agency, trades, or the draft.
With Kenneth Walker III out, Rashaad Penny has to carry the load. Healthy for the first time since 2018, Penny was stupendous to end last season. From Weeks 14-18, Penny averaged 18.4 rushes for 134.2 yards and 1.2 TDs per game. He was the RB1 in fantasy, averaging 22.0 PPR points per game. Rushing for over 135 yards in four of five games, Penny has now posted at least 100 yards in six of the seven career games in which he received 12+ carries.
Speaking of that trade, the band-aid is being ripped off as Wilson heads back to Seattle for the first time since the trade went down. While I’m sure it might feel a bit odd at first for him, Wilson is going to put on a freaking show.
With that said, all my focus and attention is on Courtland Sutton. He is my “die on this hill” player for 2022. By the time draft rankings locked, he was up to WR9 in my rankings.
Sutton had a breakout year in 2019 with 72 catches for 1,112 yards and six touchdowns, earning his first Pro Bowl selection. Now, over a full year removed from a 2020 torn ACL, Sutton is Wilson’s new version of DK Metcalf. Last year, only 51% of Sutton’s air yards (1,509) were converted into actual yards (776).
That won’t be the case with Wilson, who is one of the NFL’s best deep-ball passers and led the NFL in intended air yards per attempt last year at 9.9. Throw in Nathaniel Hackett’s offense, plus the unfortunate injury to Tim Patrick opening up more volume, and everything screams Sutton is set to explode.
Indoor games
Because these NFL games are indoors, the weather conditions can be controlled. As such, the only forecast and reports are that it will be optimal playing conditions for these teams. The passing and kicking game will not be affected.
- New Orleans Saints (-5.5) at Atlanta Falcons
O/U 42.5 | Sunday 1 p.m. ET - Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) at Detroit Lions
O/U 48.5 | Sunday 1 p.m. ET - Indianapolis Colts (-7.5) at Houston Texans
O/U 45.5 | Sunday 1 p.m. ET - Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) at Arizona Cardinals
O/U 53.5 | Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET - Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5)
O/U 52.5 | Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET - Green Bay Packers (-1.5) at Minnesota Vikings
O/U 46.5 | Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
Primetime games
Sunday Night Football will be played indoors. Therefore, there will be no impact on your fantasy football players in Week 1.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) at Dallas Cowboys
O/U 50/5 | Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET