The 2022 NFL season is here. With a full slate of Sunday games, fantasy football managers are once again going through the trials and tribulations of dreaded lineup decisions. What is Amari Cooper’s fantasy value this week, and should you start him against the Panthers in Week 1?
Amari Cooper’s fantasy outlook against the Panthers
It’s always difficult to evaluate matchups ahead of Week 1. Without any current season data to rely on, we’re largely beholden to our preseason evaluations. Cooper was PFN’s WR35 and 87th-ranked player in our 2022 PPR fantasy football rankings.
Cooper is coming off a disappointing season where he averaged just 13.5 PPR fantasy points per game as Dak Prescott’s WR1. While Cooper remains a clear WR1 in Cleveland, he will now be catching passes from Jacoby Brissett.
For a glimpse of the impact Brissett has on wide receivers, we need look no further than prime T.Y. Hilton. In 2016 and 2018, Hilton averaged 17 and 17.1 ppg, respectively, with Andrew Luck at quarterback. In 2017 and 2019, Hilton averaged 11 and 12.5 ppg, respectively, with Brissett. Those are substantial drops in productivity.
Game script will be a problem
In addition to the downgrade in QB play, Cooper is likely headed for a decrease in volume.
Prior to the 2021 season, Cooper had never seen below a 20% target share. Last season, Cooper’s target share was a tick under 19%. Ironically, I expect his target share to increase this season. The problem is while Brissett is under center, an increase in target share may not necessarily mean an increase in targets.
Prescott averaged 37.25 pass attempts per game last season. During his two seasons as a starter in Indianapolis, Brissett averaged about 29 pass attempts per game. And that was on a team more inclined to throw than the current Browns.
Cooper is now in a run-first offense in Cleveland. They won’t go pass-heavy unless they have to. In a virtual pick ’em with the Panthers, the Browns are unlikely to face negative game script. I would be surprised if they fell behind by much more than a score. As a result, they will be able to pound Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, possibly as many as 35 times.
The Browns aren’t going to get shut out. They will probably score a touchdown or two, and it’s possible Cooper finds the end zone. He did finish 11th in the league last season with 19 red-zone targets. But unless Cooper does score, he’s likely destined for a mediocre outing, at best.
Should fantasy managers start Cooper?
The answer really comes down to the size of your starting lineups. In a standard two WR, two RB, and one TE format, Cooper likely doesn’t make the cut. He currently sits at WR40 in our Week 1 wide receiver rankings. In leagues that start three wide receivers and a Flex, it’s possible that a WR4 finds his way into your lineups. Cooper is far from the worst option this week.
In deeper formats, such as 14-teamers or leagues that allow you to start a total of seven or more RBs and WRs combined, you’ll probably be hard-pressed to find a better option than Cooper. With that said, if you have a viable alternative, I would try to not start Cooper this week.
Fantasy managers who drafted Cooper are going to need to do their best to predict either when he’ll score or when the Browns are likely to fall behind in games, forcing them to throw more. Predicting touchdowns for wide receivers is an exercise in futility.
The best shot we have is projecting game flow. We can use betting lines for that. Baker Mayfield may be motivated to stick it to his former team, but the Panthers are not the team that is going to make the Browns have to abandon their run-oriented attack.
Cooper should be good for at least 3-4 catches and around 40 yards. He’s not going to get you zero. But you and I both know you want more upside than that. Unless Cooper scores, I’m expecting no better than WR4 numbers from him this week. Fantasy managers should seek an alternative if one exists on their roster.