While the draft and waiver wire impact a fantasy football team, nothing else matters if you make the wrong lineup decisions. As managers make the final tweaks to their lineups for Week 1, should you start Los Angeles Rams RB Darrell Henderson against the Buffalo Bills?
Darrell Henderson’s fantasy outlook against the Bill
The Los Angeles Rams’ running back dynamic has been a talking point most of the summer. While Cam Akers is viewed as the No. 1, there has been a swing in Henderson’s outlook, much of which has been spurred on by his head coach.
“I look at it as we’ve got two starting backs. … They need to be on the field. I think it’s healthy for them to be able to supplement one another.” That’s straight from head coach Sean McVay.
I get where he is coming from as well. Henderson, for all the inconsistencies and injuries over his career, played well when the team needed him. With Akers out for the season, or so we thought, Henderson was the Rams’ top rusher. In Weeks 1-12 last season, Henderson was the RB14 in PPR, averaging 16.9 touches and 82 total yards per game. What saved him for fantasy was scoring eight touchdowns.
While he was not overly efficient, the volume that comes with being the top rusher in a McVay offense allowed him to post solid outings, even cracking the top 12 in 25% of his games (three) and finishing inside the RB2 range 58% of the time.
The concern now for Henderson is Akers is back and healthy. Well, relatively speaking. Akers, much like Henderson, has dealt with a soft-tissue injury. But according to ESPN’s Sarah Barshop, McVay called both “good to go” for their matchup on Thursday night.
Cam Akers, when healthy, is the Rams’ RB1
Traditionally, the RB2 in McVay’s offense has a heavily reduced workload, leading to little fantasy value. That’s even been the case between these two. In games where Akers has seen nine or more attempts, Henderson averages just 3.2 carries per game.
Akers, when active, has dominated the touches since his rookie year. In 2020, he took control of the Rams’ backfield starting in Week 13. Over the final five weeks (four games), Akers rushed 86 times for 340 yards and a touchdown. He also caught eight passes on 11 targets for 96 yards.
Then we get to last season, and before we even look at what he did, remember Akers was never supposed to be on the field in the first place. Less than half a year before, he tore his Achilles. If anything, we should applaud him. But after a five-carry “tune-up” in Week 18, Akers averaged 19.25 opportunities per game with no ramp-up outside what he did during rehab.
All that has been mentioned is his paltry 2.4 yards per carry and that Akers lost his juice. But we aren’t noting that 95% of his rushing yards came after contact, meaning he was able to generate power midrun. Or the fact Akers faced the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the No. 1 rush defense last year, and the San Francisco 49ers (twice) in three of his five games (including Week 18).
When stabilized, I expect Akers to dominate the touches. I was bullish on him in during the offseason, with Akers coming in as my RB17 and Henderson as the RB38. Yet things get a little bit tighter in Week 1.
Henderson could be active against the Bills, but maybe not active enough
I won’t be shocked if Henderson sees 10-13 touches, given the comments from McVay, and with it being the first game for Akers. But the biggest concern is not Akers or even Kyren Williams (if he plays) — it’s the Buffalo Bills’ defense.
The Bills have the best roster in the NFL from top to bottom. The defense that ranked No. 1 in EPA got even better, plucking Von Miller from the Rams to come to play with them. It’s a unit that fantasy managers steered away from whenever possible in 2021.
Last year, no team allowed fewer fantasy points per game than the Bills. They were No. 1 vs. QBs., No. 6 vs. RBs, No. 1 against WRs., and No. 2 against TEs. While this doesn’t correlate perfectly from year to year, the Bills are good enough that you can make an exception.
I don’t think either team enjoys trying to run the ball Thursday. This game will be won by Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Allen Robinson, or Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, and Gabriel Davis. They need to put up points, and unless it is a red-zone carry, don’t expect any breakaway runs or explosive fantasy plays.
In PFN’s fantasy football rankings, Henderson is the RB40, leaving him right on the edge of Flex play consideration. Akers, on the other hand, is the RB28, so it’s not as if we are massively high on him. I can understand starting Henderson if you feel there is a more significant play than we have seen.
But you’ll be relying on touchdown upside against a defense that allowed just 14 TDs to the position last year. If it were me, I would sit Henderson in Week 1 against the Bills and look for more stable and higher upside fantasy football options.