If you’re making Seattle Seahawks vs. Denver Broncos DFS picks for Monday night in Week 1, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations. The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.
Seahawks vs. Broncos DFS picks
Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five Flex players. The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data.
[bet-promo id=”149453″ ]Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes. Criteria such as age, durability, shifting personnel, schedule, and other factors help shape these final assessments.
Seahawks DFS considerations
The Seahawks are a team in transition, and they might just be playing for 2023 more than 2022, as they eye their QB of the future. For now, can Geno Smith deliver even middling production, or was last year’s sporadic effectiveness as a spot starter more fluky than replicable? He’s the gateway for consistent, high-end production from DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, and perhaps even secondary options like Noah Fant. It will be interesting to see how much Seattle puts the game in Smith’s hands.
Speaking of which, Rashaad Penny might dominate on the ground, as he did in the closing weeks of last season. DeeJay Dallas remains one of my favorite No. 3/4 team RBs, and very well could lead this backfield later this season if Penny gets hurt (yes, even ahead of Kenneth Walker III). Trusting a starting RB in a relatively sub-par offense against a strong defense poses plenty of risks in DFS. The idea that Dallas and Travis Homer could poach Penny makes the starter’s value even less certain.
Broncos DFS considerations
For Denver, Russell Wilson could be the difference between a sub-.500 team and a Super Bowl contender. Forget what we saw in his injury-plagued 2021 campaign. He’s not far removed from being viewed as one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks. Against a beatable Seahawks defense, Wilson might thrive with a high-end receiving corps and two terrific pass-catching backs.
Meanwhile, is one of my favorite top-five upside RBs, Javonte Williams, ready to take over the 1A backfield role? He led all running backs last year in broken tackles. I think he’ll be near-elite this season, whether he earns 250 touches alongside Melvin Gordon or upwards of 300. There are many reasons to believe Monday Night Football will be a statement game for a transformed Broncos franchise. While I don’t often bet heavily on road teams in nationally televised contests, I can’t conceive of Seattle slowing Denver down.
Recommended DFS lineup
Williams ($10,200 normally, $15,300 as Captain) gets the Captain slot. If we went with the more expensive Wilson, we’d need to cut corners elsewhere. Since I’m all-in on Denver’s top four offensive weapons tonight, Williams wins the job. Meanwhile, Wilson ($11,800) should throw plenty to Courtland Sutton ($9,400) and Jerry Jeudy ($8,200). All three belong in this DFS lineup.
One of the final two spots go to the Broncos D/ST ($4,800), which I believe will force at least two Seattle turnovers while producing 3+ sacks. The other spot? Well, that goes to Dallas. No, not the Cowboys. We’re still talking about DeeJay Dallas. His $400 DFS price tag seems like an oversight. Unless this game is more competitive than I anticipate, Penny should give way to Dallas and possibly Homer during the second half. Dallas offers appeal for potential late-game fantasy heroics.