The quickest way to fall behind in a fantasy football league is to become complacent and rely on the team you drafted, neglecting the all-important waiver wire. As managers make numerous waiver claims for Week 1 hoping to strengthen their roster, should Arizona Cardinals’ WR A.J. Green be a priority addition off the waiver wire vs. Kansas City?
Is A.J. Green worth a look in Week 1 waiver wire claims?
The 2022 NFL season — and fantasy football season for that matter — will be a tale of two seasons. The ones with and without DeAndre Hopkins. The former All-Pro will serve a six-game suspension during the team’s first six games for performance-enhancing drugs, leaving others with an increased opportunity.
One of those players is Green, the subject of today’s waiver wire discussion. Some have Green pegged to be a top waiver wire target for Week 1. After the world’s quietest 104-target season in 2020, Green came into Arizona and contributed, even serving as the No. 1 perimeter receiver when Hopkins was injured.
Playing in 16 games, Green recorded 54 receptions on 92 targets, totaling 848 yards (32nd-most) with three touchdowns. Green finished as the WR41 in PPR scoring, averaging 9.8 PPR/game (52nd).
A.J. Green regressed without DeAndre Hopkins on the field
What happened when Hopkins was gone is what was most interesting. Despite seeing more targets (6.5 compared to 5.7), Green’s production decreased across the board. His receptions dropped from 3.8 to 3.2, as did his yards (57.2 to 46), touchdowns (0.3 to 0), and his fantasy points per game (11.3 PPR/game to 7.7 PPR/game).
What happened? Two things took place.
For one, Green moved up not only Arizona’s depth chart but also that of the other team. He drew more challenging matchups on the outside and served as little more than a vertical decoy or field stretcher.
Changes in personnel only lessen Green’s chances of flourishing
Additionally, the Cardinals made a trade to acquire Zach Ertz from the Eagles. If anything, this might be more important for Green. While Green saw 14 red-zone targets and scored two touchdowns, eight of those looks and both scores came before Ertz landed in Phoenix. Once Ertz arrived, Green had just six further red-zone targets in his next 10 games. After scoring 10+ fantasy points per game in four of the first six weeks, Green scored five or fewer points over the final nine weeks.
Things have changed, though. Primarily with the loss of Christian Kirk to the Jacksonville Jaguars. However, Kliff Kingsbury and Co. didn’t rest on their laurels. Instead, they made a blockbuster trade with the Baltimore Ravens on draft day to bring in Marquise “Hollywood” Brown. Although the targets could be a wash, Brown will serve as the WR1 when Hopkins is gone and turn into a 1A/1B scenario together.
This proves problematic for Green because Brown is more of a red-zone threat than Kirk was over his time with the team. Of his 146 targets, Brown saw 17 targets in the red zone last season with Baltimore, compared to just eight for Kirk in Arizona (103).
For me, there are far too many high-upside players out there possibly floating on the waiver wire than to target Green in Week 1. I’d much prefer someone like Isaiah McKenzie, who could blossom in Buffalo, rather than someone who is now 34 and will have his role likely decrease, not increase, in the coming weeks.
Once a top-rated receiver in the NFL, there’s not enough upside in standard 10 or 12-team leagues to justify adding Green off the waiver wire in Week 1. Even in a matchup where points shouldn’t be hard to come by, barring a touchdown, Green is a risk not worth taking.