The 2022 fantasy football season is truly underway, and drafts are firing off across the nation, meaning now is the time to dive into Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill’s ADP to determine whether or not fantasy managers are receiving value on draft day. Will a change of scenery impact Hill’s fantasy appeal and upside in 2022, and where should he be going in upcoming fantasy football drafts?
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Tyreek Hill ADP | Is he worth his current price in fantasy drafts?
As we continue through prime draft season in fantasy football, Miami Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill currently has an ADP of 18, coming off the board as the WR7. For comparison, Jaylen Waddle (WR18) is going around 28 picks later than Hill (ADP 46).
In PFN’s 2022 Fantasy Football Redraft Rankings, Hill is currently the WR7 with an ADP of 18, showing a strikingly identical outlook compared to his ADP. While those rankings are a consensus, I have Hill as my WR8 and 21st overall player, with Waddle the WR22 and 51st overall player. However, be sure to check back, as rankings may fluctuate between now and the start of the season.
While Hill doesn’t have the same upside as he did with Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs, no one should be writing Hill off for 2022. Money talks to a certain extent, and you do not go out and make a trade for Hill, sign him to a new contract, and then have him play second-fiddle in your offense.
We can compare and contrast Mahomes and Tua Tagovailoa until we are blue in the face, but Hill’s skill set transcends the uniform he wears and brings explosiveness that can’t be matched. Far too much emphasis has been placed on Tua’s arm strength and not on Hill’s ability to not only stretch the field vertically but horizontally.
Tua has an uncanny sense of timing and rhythm. Those traits will undoubtedly pair well with Hill. While he may no longer a top-3 or top-5 receiver, Hill is a player fantasy managers shouldn’t worry about when plugging him into their starting lineups in 2022.
Tyreek Hill’s projected fantasy value in 2022
In one of those “I did not see that coming” moments of the 2022 free agency period, Hill was traded to the Dolphins. With four top-10 finishes in the last five years, there’s little to debate when it comes to Hill’s talent and past production.
Even last season, in what was considered to be a down year in which Hill posted a career-low in yards after the catch per reception (4.3, 42nd) and yards per route run (2.14, 11th), he was still the WR6 in PPR points per game at 14.2. He did all of that despite his aDOPT dropping to 10.6, the lowest since his rookie season.
That’s an important point, as depth of target is what some people are concerned about when it comes to Hill’s targets coming from Tua. Hill is not just a vertical threat as some make him out to be. By simply looking to last season, one can see that his target distribution paints a different picture.
Of Hill’s career-high 159 targets, only 25 had an intended depth of 20 yards or more (16%). That’s only four additional targets than Hill saw behind the line of scrimmage (21). Short (0-9) and intermediate (10-19) targets made up the vast majority of his targets at 67 (43%) and 42 (21%), respectively.
That’s also nothing new. Since 2018, short to intermediate targets accounted for 62% of his opportunities, with deep targets representing 23.7%. By no means am I trying to suggest that Hill won’t have vertical looks. He is arguably the best deep ball receiver in the history of the NFL. It will be a part of his game and adds massive amounts of fantasy upside.
All I am arguing is that not enough conversation has been had about how well Hill fits in Miami’s offense, and that what he will be asked to do in South Beach likely won’t be all that different than what he did in Kansas City.
As for Jaylen Waddle, the sophomore wideout did take a hit to his upside, but after breaking Anquan Boldin’s rookie receptions record, he will remain the WR2 and even potentially be the wideout that leads the team in receptions. I still have no issues drafting either in 2022, but I prefer the upside of Hill.