Tennessee Titans star running back Derrick Henry is looking to bounce back after a foot injury derailed his 2021 season. Will Henry produce enough to be on your fantasy football roster, and what is his current ADP in fantasy drafts?
Derrick Henry ADP | Is he worth his current price in fantasy drafts?
Henry’s current ADP is fourth overall as the fourth running back selected in fantasy drafts. This means he’s being taken in the top five of standard and PPR leagues. Other players drafted in his range include Austin Ekeler and Dalvin Cook.
Henry finished as RB4 and No. 6 overall in our 2022 running back fantasy rankings. He’s absolutely worth taking in the top half of the first round, especially considering he’s been more reliable than his peers when it comes to injuries. His résumé doesn’t have the same amount of soft-tissue injuries that have plagued some of the other top backs in the league.
A true unicorn, Henry is a premier example of volume and efficiency being valuable. The Titans have built their identity around Henry’s unique ability to get stronger as games progress. While this is often a cliché used by announcers, Henry actually embodies this strategy as he pulverizes foes into submission.
Tennessee will again look to Henry to drag this team to the postseason. Their team is worse in 2022 than they were in 2021, but that’s great news for Henry’s fantasy managers. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill proved he couldn’t step up without the unit running through the powerful back.
One of the fascinating decisions Tennessee made amidst an offseason with several, including the decision to trade A.J. Brown for Treylon Burks, was not to add a significant talent behind Henry. Fourth-round rookie Hassan Haskins is a fine depth piece but has little physical upside to be more than a No. 2 option. He’s the latest churnable body who is no threat to Henry’s throne.
Henry’s projected fantasy value in 2022
Without Brown and another clear red-zone threat on the roster, Henry should again lead the NFL in rushing yards and touchdowns. It might not even be close if Matt Ryan increases the passing volume that Indianapolis produced in 2021. Henry should push for the 2,000-yard mark once again and could get 15 or more scores.
Where Henry loses value is as a pass catcher. He’s solid, boasting a 75% catch rate throughout his career, including a 90% rate last year. But he’s seen 125 targets over the course of his six-year career, compared to Najee Harris’ 94 and Leonard Fournette’s 84 in 2021 alone.
PPR drafters may want to consider a receiver over Henry. Justin Jefferson, Cooper Kupp, and Ja’Marr Chase are completely justifiable selections over the Titans RB. But you’ll have to make sure you still get a strong back in the second and possibly third rounds as well. It’s a tough year to wait too long at the tailback position.
I prefer to lock in a high-end, high-floor running back like Henry and figure out the rest later. You could wait to take a back like AJ Dillon in the fourth or fifth round after grabbing two high-end receivers after Henry. Otherwise, you’re hoping for someone like Saquon Barkley or Nick Chubb after the turn.