Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor led the NFL in rushing production in 2021. Will Taylor produce enough to be on your fantasy football roster, and what is his current ADP in fantasy drafts?
Jonathan Taylor ADP | Is he worth his current price in fantasy drafts?
Taylor’s current ADP is first overall as the first running back selected in fantasy drafts. He’s almost always the No. 1 pick outside of Superflex leagues. Those leagues often see quarterbacks taken throughout the first round.
This should come as no surprise, but Taylor is also No. 1 in our 2022 fantasy football rankings. He’s not only worth the No. 1 pick, but the most obvious selection after he scored 60 points more than any back in standard leagues and 30 more in PPR. He even scored almost 20 more points in standard than Derrick Henry did in 2020.
Interestingly, Taylor’s league-leading PPR total was the lowest amount of any back since 2015. It’s certainly possible Alvin Kamara or Christian McCaffrey blow his 2021 total out of the water if both stay healthy and have their offenses feed them an extremely high volume. But that seems unlikely considering their respective offenses and injury concerns.
Taylor is the safe, smart pick. McCaffrey is the bold, risky pick with a slightly higher upside.
Taylor’s projected fantasy value in 2022
The Colts added Matt Ryan to bolster their offense, and while he might take a few opportunities away from Taylor, this is still a net positive for the back’s potential production. Ryan can extend drives and put Taylor in positions through pre-snap adjustments in ways Carson Wentz couldn’t.
The one area of concern for potential loss is within the red zone. Taylor dominated in the red zone, earning 41 more carries in the red zone than any other back in the NFL. He responded with only 2.9 yards per carry but 14 of his 18 touchdowns.
Will some of those opportunities go to Michael Pittman, Parris Campbell, or Alec Pierce? It’s likely. We’re hoping Ryan creates more red-zone trips instead of the same number and simply reallocates those touches elsewhere.
Taylor’s fantasy managers may be in for a letdown season if he loses even five touchdowns. Although, there is also opportunity for improvement as he caught only two receiving scores, with zero coming in the red zone. It all depends on how Ryan distributes his targets and works within the flow of last year’s offense.
Even if Taylor doesn’t quite reach his 21.9 fantasy points per game of last season, the only other back within three points was Austin Ekeler. Ekeler is a terrific back in his own right but also has an injury history more concerning than Taylor’s. You want to hit a home run with your first overall pick in fantasy football but also can rarely afford to have your guy miss half the season.
Injuries are always possible, but Taylor has the least baggage and a strong situation for him to continue building upon his incredible 2021 season. You can take him and sleep well throughout the fantasy season that your RB1 spot will garner elite production.