Dallas Goedert’s ADP for fantasy football in 2022 is at its most stable of his career now that he’s the clear No. 1 in Philadelphia. However, can this Eagles’ offense provide consistent value for Goedert, or will he be a frustrating option? Let’s examine Goedert’s ADP in fantasy football drafts and determine whether you are better off waiting or if you should make a move at his current price.
Dallas Goedert ADP | Is he worth his current price in fantasy drafts?
Goedert’s current ADP in redraft fantasy football leagues is between 70-85 overall, and he’s either the seventh or eighth TE off the board. His ADP is highest in PPR (71 overall) and lowest in non-PPR (83). Goedert is eighth at the position in both while sitting seventh at the position in half-PPR.
That all puts Goedert’s current value somewhere in the region of the late-sixth to seventh round in a 12-team league. His ADP is highest on NFL.com, where he is the TE6 at 52 overall off the board. In contrast, Goedert’s lowest ADP is only in the late 80s. That generally suggests he rarely slides past the beginning of Round 8 on average.
Dallas Goedert’s projected fantasy value in 2022
A lot has changed for Goedert from this time last year. In 2021 fantasy drafts, Zach Ertz was set to be a thorn in the side of Goedert’s fantasy managers. That all changed after six games when Ertz was traded to the Arizona Cardinals. Goedert then became the clear No. 1 tight end on the Eagles’ depth chart, and he remains there.
When you look back at Goedert’s usage in 2022, there’s a difference with and without Ertz. When Ertz was on the team, Goedert was averaging 4.4 targets per game, with 3.6 receptions and 43.2 yards per game. After Ertz left, that rose to 5.9 targets, 4.3 receptions, and 61.4 yards per game. Those numbers are on pace for 100 targets, 73 receptions, and 1,044 receiving yards over a full 17-game season.
The only reason Goedert didn’t see a bigger increase in fantasy-point output following Ertz’s departure was touchdowns. Goedert scored two touchdowns in the first five games and then only found the end zone twice more after that.
Regardless of that, Goedert averaged 7.5 fantasy points per game (ppg) in non-PPR and 11.8 ppg in PPR during that stretch without Ertz. If we replace Goedert’s actual returns with those per-game numbers, it actually makes little difference to his finish at the position last year (TE8 in both formats).
A shift in weapons in Philadelphia
There is good and bad news for Goedert. Ertz hasn’t been replaced with another tight end to push for snaps, but A.J. Brown has arrived to be the clear No. 1 option in this offense.
Last year, DeVonta Smith and Goedert led the Eagles with 104 and 76 targets, respectively. Those target shares were 22.2% and 16.3% of the season-long total, respectively. Goedert missed two games, so his actual share would have been closer to 18%.
The question is whether they can retain a combined 40% of the target share with Brown now involved in the offense. There were 119 targets split by Quez Watkins and Jalen Reagor last year. Brown should see a large chunk of those, but not all of his targets will come from those two. So they have to come from elsewhere, and likely some of it will be from Smith and Goedert.
Of course, there are also the 31 targets Ertz saw through the first five weeks. Those could supplement any drop Goedert sees to Brown. What this all really means is that expecting Goedert to outperform his production from last year is highly optimistic. The Eagles’ offense is unlikely to throw the ball suddenly 550+ times (they ranked 32nd in attempts last year).
Therefore, Goedert’s slice of the pie should remain static, and the pie doesn’t get all that much bigger. Realistically, that means you should view Goedert in the frame of the numbers he achieved last year. Hopefully, we’re talking about the numbers after the Ertz trade rather than before.
Should you draft Goedert in 2022?
The good thing about Goedert is that his floor is likely what we saw with Ertz on the team last year. That is still a solid top 10-12 tight end. The problem is that his ceiling is seemingly capped around the sixth-ranked player at the position. That’s an issue when we’re talking about a player being taken as the TE7 or TE8. You’re taking him at his ceiling.
Goedert sits seventh at the position in PFN’s consensus 2022 TE fantasy rankings. He has that value across all three formats and is in the region of 85 overall. Therefore, we view Goedert as being a value at what is essentially his ADP floor of the late seventh round in 12-team leagues.
There is the conundrum of how you view the next TE tier. All of the players below Goedert and T.J. Hockenson have huge swings in floors and ceilings. That will delight you some weeks and drive you crazy in others. If you take Goedert, you at least know what you can pencil in most weeks. Is it exciting? Not overly, but it is safe.
My approach to Goedert and Hockenson is I want to be the person that takes the second of them in their mini-tier. That is tough to judge in a two-man tier, so you need to know your draft and how it is playing out.
If you pick seventh and all but one player has a tight end between you and the 12th pick, then you can likely let them both pass, and chances are one of them will be there when you get back. However, if two or more teams need a tight end, letting them pass you is extremely risky.