Kansas City Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco stormed up draft boards just as he did the Chiefs’ depth chart. What is Pacheco’s current ADP, and should fantasy football managers look to select him at that price in fantasy football drafts?
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Isiah Pacheco ADP | Is he worth his current price in fantasy drafts?
Pacheco’s ADP is still around RB55. His overall ADP remains outside the top 200, but that’s largely impacted by thousands of drafts prior to the past couple of weeks where Pacheco wasn’t even a consideration. He’s almost certainly going to be drafted in a typical 12-team league.
I like Pacheco. In his current situation, he’s got as good of a shot as a seventh-round rookie could hope for. However, this is a tad bit expensive for a guy that’s still third on the depth chart and likely in a version of a three-man committee all season.
Chasing Chiefs running backs during the Patrick Mahomes era is nothing new. After 2017 Kareem Hunt, fantasy managers have been trying to find the next guy that’s going to win them leagues. Although “running backs don’t matter” when it comes to real-life wins, talent does matter when it comes to fantasy. The fact of the matter is the Chiefs just haven’t had a back as talented as Hunt since Hunt.
In our 2022 fantasy football rankings, Pacheco is our consensus RB60. I’m actually a little higher on him at RB54, but don’t take this as me being high on Pacheco. It’s more that I respect the notion of throwing a dart at a Chiefs running back with plausible upside as opposed to some random RB4 who’s never going to ascend beyond being a weekly RB4.
It’s a good process to take a shot on guys like Pacheco in ambiguous backfields. I just want to caution against reaching for him. If Pacheco is the right guy at the right price, go ahead and scoop him up in your fantasy draft. Just don’t go out of your way to do it.
Isiah Pacheco’s projected fantasy value in 2022
Pacheco wasn’t just a seventh-round pick; he was a late seventh-round pick. Pacheco was one of the last selections in the 2022 NFL Draft. It’s quite uncommon for Day 3 players to matter in fantasy, let alone one that went as late as Pacheco.
I’m usually the first guy to proclaim, “your Day 3 rookie darling doesn’t matter.” However, I’m a little more optimistic when it comes to Pacheco.
As a four-year college player at Rutgers, Pacheco never exceeded 729 rushing yards in a season. He averaged 4.3 yards per carry for his career. So, what exactly is appealing about him?
Let’s start with his speed. Pacheco runs a 4.37 40-time at 5’10”, 216 pounds. He has solid size and elite straight-line speed. Most Pacheco fans, myself included, place a large portion of the blame for Pacheco’s inefficiency on Rutgers’ poor offensive line. He just didn’t have anywhere to go.
Of course, part of the problem is something scouts noticed on film a bit too often — Pacheco’s vision is suspect. He doesn’t always know where to go after he gets the ball. If the hole isn’t where he expects it to be, he lacks the ability to pivot on the fly. It’s not easy to do that, but the best backs can figure it out more than Pacheco seems to.
Last season, Chiefs running backs averaged about 2.1 yards before contact. Their offensive line is significantly better than anything Pacheco saw in college. Pacheco is talented enough to produce if given the opportunity. He just needs that opportunity.
Impact of the Chiefs’ depth chart on Pacheco’s fantasy value
Pacheco opened training camp fourth on the depth chart. He played his way all the way up to getting work with the ones. We saw Pacheco on the field with Mahomes in the preseason.
Initially, we were seeing a three-man committee between Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Jerick McKinnon, and Pacheco. However, the final preseason game changed my outlook a bit.
CEH and McKinnon rested while Pacheco played into the second half. As a result, I’m expecting Edwards-Helaire to be the early-down back with McKinnon on passing downs. Pacheco is likely slated for no more than a handful of carries a week when CEH is tired. Ronald Jones, meanwhile, is a nonfactor as a likely healthy inactive.
With that said, this is not a difficult roster to climb. Edwards-Helaire is one of the weakest starting running backs in the league, and McKinnon is a 30-year-old, oft-injured satellite back. Pacheco has already beat out Jones. If CEH continues to struggle, Pacheco could carve out a fantasy-relevant role in the not-too-distant future.