Tyrion Davis-Price was selected as a late third-round selection in the 2022 NFL Draft by the San Francisco 49ers, but will he have a role that makes him a fantasy football asset this season? In a crowded backfield, let’s examine Davis-Price’s ADP in 2022 fantasy drafts and whether he can return value on that cost.
Tyrion Davis-Price ADP | Is he worth his current price in fantasy drafts?
Davis-Price’s current ADP in redraft leagues has a wide variance. His overall ADP is non-PPR is significantly higher than other formats in the region of 190th as the RB66. Interestingly, in half-PPR and full-PPR, he is still going off the board as the RB67, but his ADP drops below 220th overall. However, that ADP varies hugely from site to site.
In a 12-team league, the 190th selection is at the end of the 16th round. That means Davis-Price is on the verge of going undrafted in 12-team formats. As we look deeper, Davis-Price is a late-round selection in 14-team non-PPR leagues. When it comes to half- and full-PPR formats, Davis-Price becomes a late-round selection in 16-team leagues or bigger.
Davis-Price’s projected fantasy value in 2022
It appears like it might be a tough ask for Davis-Price to provide consistent fantasy value as a rookie. He is currently projected to sit third on the depth chart, behind Elijah Mitchell and Jeff Wilson. Last year, we saw that the rushing attempts were largely centered around Mitchell when he was healthy. The second-year back averaged 18.8 rush attempts per game when active.
Meanwhile, no other back on the roster had more than 80 rush attempts, and only Wilson saw more than 50. Then there is Deebo Samuel, who had 59 rushing attempts (more than 10% of the total share). Of those, 14 came inside the red zone and nine inside the 10-yard line. Samuel had 23.7% of the 49ers’ red-zone rush attempts, with another 35.6% going to Mitchell.
That is the problem for Davis-Price. Without injuries, there is not that much pie to take. Wilson is projected to be the player that steps up if Mitchell misses time, and we know the second back has limited output in this offense, especially if Samuel is also taking touches as a running back.
A limited skill set does not help
There was a little bit of value for another RB in the 49ers backfield in the receiving game. JaMycal Hasty had 29 targets last year, with only FB Kyle Juszczyk having more as a backfield option. While 29 targets in 11 games is not a big share, it is at least something that could allow Davis-Price to provide value if he earned that role.
Unfortunately, pass catching is not something that Davis-Price has much experience with from college. Across three years at LSU, Davis-Price had 379 rushing attempts, including 211 in his junior year. However, he had a total of just 28 receptions and no more than 10 in a single season. The 49ers may develop his skills as a pass catcher. But right now, that is not something fantasy managers should bank on.
Should you draft Davis-Price in 2022?
There is no simple answer when it comes to drafting Davis-Price at his current ADP. His ADP is so low that you are just throwing a dart in a deeper league, hoping he will return value at some point. In PFN’s consensus RB fantasy rankings, Davis-Price is no higher than the RB60 region and is ranked as a player to go undrafted in 12-team leagues and be a borderline late-round pick in 14-team leagues.
The optimistic outlook for drafting Davis-Price is that if he does end up the starter this season, he could have a big opportunity share. We have seen high levels of attrition in the 49ers’ backfield in previous years because they have tended to put the workload on one back instead of spreading it around. It is not impossible that Davis-Price could be the starter at some point this season, but right now, he needs two injuries to have significant value. That is not ideal.
Additionally, while the lack of a clear pass-catching skill set somewhat limits his ceiling as a starter, the potential volume is enticing. Mitchell was able to average 15 points per game last year in PPR despite having just 19 receptions on the season. That was good enough for RB15, which would be a fantastic return for Davis-Price if he manages to start games later in the year.
Mitchell was one of just three backs to be a top-20 fantasy option on a points-per-game basis with fewer than 20 receptions for the season. That is where volume and goal-line opportunities are so important. In deeper leagues, selecting Davis-Price as a bench stash with the hope he provides value is a smart move.
However, he is not a player you should look to spend a late-round selection on in 12- or 14-team leagues because the path to fantasy relevancy is not clear entering the season. In those rounds, there are players with significantly clearer paths to fantasy relevancy, even if their roles might not be as clear-cut if they get there.