Logan Thomas’ fantasy football outlook for 2022 has improved as the tight end was activated from the PUP list ahead of the season. The question is whether Thomas can get back to the heights of his breakout season after recovering from his knee injury. Let’s examine Thomas’ fantasy outlook for 2022 and whether he should be drafted at his current ADP in fantasy drafts.
Logan Thomas’ fantasy outlook for 2022
When he is healthy, Thomas is a very useful fantasy asset at tight end. In his breakout season in 2020, he finished third at the position in total points, averaging 11 per game. Last year, we saw similar returns when he was on the field. His 8.9 fantasy points per game in PPR was somewhat impacted by leaving the game after just five snaps in Week 4 against the Falcons without registering a fantasy point.
Take that game away from the calculation, and Thomas had 10.72 fantasy points per game in PPR. That would have been good enough for another top-10 finish at the position. That is very much his fantasy outlook for this season. When he is healthy, he is a must-start player at the position and one you do not even think twice about. The question is, when will he be ready to take a full workload?
Being activated from the PUP list is a good start, but it doesn’t mean the Commanders might not ease him into the season. The problem is how long you are willing to wait and carry him on your bench in order to reap those rewards. In some ways, starting the season on the PUP list might have been preferable for fantasy managers. That way, the headache of knowing when to start him would have been pushed further back into his recovery.
If he is on the active roster for Week 1, it is extremely hard to start him without knowing how much he will play. Additionally, there is more competition for targets this year than there has been in the last two seasons in Washington. The Commanders’ pass-catching options are really intriguing heading into 2022.
How the Commanders depth chart impacts Thomas’ fantasy projection for the season
Previously, there has been a lack of depth in terms of pass-catching options in Washington. Last year, Adam Humphries was second on the team in targets, followed by RBs Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic. TE Ricky Seals-Jones was fifth with 49 targets. The depth, especially at WR, was extremely lacking behind star WR Terry McLaurin.
That is not the case this year. Sure, Humphries is gone, but both McKissic and Gibson remain. Additionally, Curtis Samuel appears to be entering the year healthy after seeing just nine targets last year. Then the team used a first-round selection in the 2022 NFL Draft on Jahan Dotson. There have been good reports for both Dotson and Samuel out of camp. This all means that Thomas might not be the second option in the Commanders’ offense in 2022.
In 2020, Thomas saw 110 targets. That is more than the entire TE group saw in 2021 (99). However, Seals-Jones and John Bates are not the same caliber of pass catcher that Thomas is, so it is only natural their role in the offense was not as central.
When you look back to 2020, the second-highest WR behind McLaurin in terms of targets was Cam Sims at 48. No other receiver had more than 40. It is realistic to expect that both Dotson and Samuel see at least 50 targets in 2022, limiting the opportunity share for both Thomas and McKissic below those 110 targets each saw in 2020.
Thomas’ ADP for 2022
There has been little excitement surrounding Thomas in the past few weeks. His return timetable was largely undisclosed, and his activation came somewhat of a surprise. Therefore, Thomas’ ADP for 2022 sits down at 238 overall as the TE27 off the board. That ADP should now see a bump over the next couple of weeks following his activation from the PUP list.
Currently, Thomas is 26th among tight ends and 193rd overall in PFN’s consensus 2022 PPR fantasy rankings. As we see more of him in practice leading into the season, he will likely rise in the rankings, especially if we hear he will be ready to go in Week 1. Expectations should still be tempered, given that he could be limited early in the season.
However, at his current ADP, Thomas is well worth a late-round selection, regardless of league size. When he is at his best, he is comfortably a top-12 tight end. Regardless of who you draft at tight end, a speculative late-round selection on Thomas provides you with options. If you find yourself with two solid TEs, you can trade one of them to help you elsewhere on your roster.
By no means would you want to enter the season with Thomas as your TE1. Yet, his price is so low that you can pair him with other options and adjust if he returns to his previous heights.