The news of an 11-game suspension saw Deshaun Watson’s fantasy football outlook for 2022 drop significantly. With Watson set to miss more than two-thirds of the fantasy season in most leagues, how should managers value him entering their fantasy drafts? Let’s examine Watson’s current fantasy value and ADP to see if he’s worth selecting at his current price.
Deshaun Watson’s fantasy outlook for 2022
The last time we saw Watson on a football field, he averaged 23.1 fantasy points per game and finished as the QB5 in 2020. However, when we next see him, he will have missed 28 straight regular-season games. The only game action we’ve seen Watson in since the end of that 2020 season was a rusty-looking performance in Week 1 of the 2022 preseason.
While we cannot exactly judge what Watson might look like when he returns to the regular season in Week 13, it does present a scary thought. It’s been a long time since Watson has played full-speed NFL football, and that has to be considered. Week 13 is crunch time when it comes to the fantasy playoffs. If Watson cannot be his old self immediately, is he even going to be able to help fantasy managers?
We know what Watson, at his best, can do. He completed over 70% of his passes for 4,823 yards with a 33:7 touchdown-to-interception ratio. On top of that, he added 44 rushing yards and three touchdowns. Watson is a dual-threat QB that has the potential to be a top-five fantasy QB on a per-game basis.
How the Browns’ depth chart impacts Deshaun Watson’s fantasy projection for the season
When you look at the Browns’ depth chart, the pass-catching options hardly make you drool. Amari Cooper is good, and Kareem Hunt is a solid receiving back, but beyond that, there are question marks. Donovan Peoples-Jones has yet to break out, David Bell is a rookie, Anthony Schwartz appears to be a one-trick player, and David Njoku is far from proven at tight end.
The positives come on two fronts. Firstly, the depth chart in Cleveland might not be the best in the league, but it is certainly no worse than what Watson played with at times in Houston. Secondly, the offensive line is loaded with talent right across the board. The Browns’ offensive line was rated as the fifth-best unit in the league in PFN’s 2022 offensive line rankings. That stability for Watson will provide him tremendous time to make decisions and unpick defenses.
However, all of this is somewhat hypothetical. NFL seasons are attritional, and by the time Watson is on the field in Week 13, this depth chart could look totally different. Three or four injuries could leave Watson behind a patchwork offensive line and with huge question marks in terms of pass catchers. There is so much that can change in that time.
Additionally, the Browns have a fantastic running game and a talented defense. If the Browns’ defense is playing well and keeping opponents contained, Cleveland could ease Watson back in with a strong running game and defensive strength to win games. This isn’t like in Houston, where he had to throw it all over the place seemingly every week.
Watson’s ADP for 2022
Watson’s ADP is extremely turbulent right now. He currently sits as the QB23, but that has been dropping since the 11-game suspension was announced. On some sites, he’s outside of the top 200, while he remains in the 150 region on other sites. The QB23 is Watson’s exact value in our consensus 2022 QB fantasy rankings. Once he returns, he has the potential to be a weekly game-winner, but it’s a long way away.
One thing to consider before you decide what to do with Watson is your league rules. Can players that are suspended be stashed on the IR? If they can, then Watson does carry more value, especially if you have a number of IR spots. However, if you have just one or two spots, or none at all, then at some point, you’ll have a tough decision on what to do in terms of whether to keep or drop him. In leagues with multiple IR spots, I’m more inclined to invest a slightly higher-round selection on Watson that just throwing a last-round selection at him.
In 1QB leagues, how you approach Watson might depend on your strategy at the position. If you’re planning to take Trey Lance, pairing him with Watson is very risky. You may need that bench spot to stream QBs if Lance proves inconsistent, and thus, have to drop Watson. However, if you drafted a safer QB and want a potential high-upside option weekly, then Watson could be an intriguing stash for the fantasy playoffs.
The other thing to consider with Watson in a 1QB league is when the trade deadline in your league is. If it’s late December, or you don’t have one at all, then stashing Watson as a Week 14 or 15 trade chip could be a strategy. However, heading into the fantasy playoffs, do you really want to be handing a potential rival a QB with Watson’s upside?
In Superflex, Watson is somewhat of a bigger call for fantasy managers. You will have to take him in the mid-rounds of the draft, but as a second QB, he’s a bigger potential addition than you will find in Week 13 off the waiver wire. To avoid having to take four QBs in the draft, pair Watson with two safer selections as your starting QB and Superflex.
Watson is a true headache for fantasy managers this season. In keeper or redraft leagues where you can stash him on the IR and wait for his return, the decision is simpler. But if he has to take up a spot on a five-man bench, then passing him up is the call. Chances are another manager will need that bench spot and drop him during the season. Then you can decide whether you’re willing to stash him the rest of the way and at what price.