One of the top tight ends in the NFL and fantasy football, Philadelphia Eagles TE Dallas Goedert projects to be an early pick once again as his 2022 fantasy outlook rivals the top players in the game. With the NFL season and fantasy drafts closing in, what is Goedert’s fantasy outlook in 2022, and could he prove to be valuable at his current ADP?
Dallas Goedert’s fantasy outlook for 2022
Last year was a tale of two seasons for Dallas Goedert, thanks to a midseason move made by the team. From the start of the season to Week 6, Goedert was the TE16 for fantasy in what was a very disappointing start. Despite the Eagles passing at a decent rate, Goedert only had 15 receptions on 19 targets for 216 yards with two touchdowns, averaging 9.7 PPR points per game.
Then everything changed once the Eagles traded Zach Ertz to the Cardinals. Even though the Eagles, from Week 8 on, led the NFL in rushing percentage (68%), Goedert flourished. No longer splitting targets, Goedert led the Eagles with 25.6% of the targets and 24.5% of the air yards. He was No. 2 in the NFL in target share amongst TEs over this time (Mark Andrews was first at 27.5%) and was one of just eight TEs to have 24% or more of the air yards. Also, Goedert was fourth in aDOT at 9.18 (minimum 25 targets).
He ended the season on fire, scoring 13+ fantasy points in three of his last four games, including two with over 20 points. Over that stretch, he averaged 5.3 receptions on 6.5 targets for 84.5 yards per game and scored two touchdowns.
That is the level of upside we are talking about from Goedert, who looked like the better TE option for a few years, even being more efficient than Ertz regularly. Now standing unopposed from the start, Goedert is one of the better values at his position for fantasy football in 2022.
How the Eagles depth chart impacts Dallas Goedert’s fantasy projection for the season
I’m all-in on the Eagles for 2022. Heck, I even picked them to win the NFC East. It all starts with QB Jalen Hurts. Finishing as the QB6 in 2021 (21.4 ppg), Hurts is arguably the second-best rusher in the NFL behind Lamar Jackson, but he is also more than that.
Hurts is fully capable of airing the ball out, and the addition of A.J. Brown leads to the notion of an offensive shift away from the rush-heavy offense that ended the 2021 season and a move to a more balanced approach.
Last season, only one quarterback averaged more fantasy points per game than Hurts did before his ankle injury in Week 12. That was Josh Allen, the overall QB1. Also, only two QBs rushed for more than 700 yards while passing for more than 3,000 yards. Once again, being Allen and Hurts. He will prove the detractors wrong once and for all.
It wasn’t fair to mention Brown and not add more context. I still sometimes shake my head at some of the moves from this offseason, and this is one of them. Brown has been simply electric since entering the NFL as a second-round pick in 2019. In his three years with the Titans, Brown hauled in 185 catches for 2,995 yards and 26 touchdowns, crossing the 1,000-yard mark each of his first two seasons.
The Eagles haven’t had a wide receiver eclipse 1,000 receiving yards in a season since 2014 when Jeremy Maclin did it. Brown will break that streak in 2022. The rest of the room consists of Year 1 standout DeVonta Smith, a potential trade candidate in Jalen Reagor, Quez Watkins, and Greg Ward.
Also, keep an eye on Devon Allen. An Olympic hurdler for Team USA, Allen has incendiary speed, which Philly will use in over-post concepts. While not a fantasy-relevant player in all likelihood, that simply creates more space for Brown, Smith, and Goedert when the safety needs to bail to cover the deep ball.
Dallas Goedert’s ADP for 2022
With an ADP of 83, Goedert is coming off the boards as the TE8 in PPR formats at the moment, placing him in the seventh round in 12-team fantasy leagues.
In PFN’s 2022 fantasy football redraft rankings, Goedert is the TE7 as the 89th ranked player. While PFN’s rankings are a consensus, I am in the same ballpark. My rankings have him as the TE7, my 80th overall player. Be sure to check back, as rankings will fluctuate between now and the start of the season.
If you do not want to reach too early for the Kelce, Andrews, or Pitts tier, Goedert is a stable mid-round pick that solidifies the position but carries a ton of upside if he gets off to how last year ended. However, he is also in a jam-packed part of the draft for wide receivers, so you’ll need to determine your roster’s needs and which is needed more. If you do pass and opt for the late-round TE approach, Cole Kmet and Albert Okwuegbunam are very intriguing options as potential breakouts.