The 2022 fantasy football season is truly underway as drafts fire off across the nation, meaning now is the time to dive into Dallas Cowboys RB Tony Pollard’s ADP to determine whether or not managers are receiving a value in fantasy drafts. Will we finally see a changing of the guard down in Dallas, or will Tony Pollard continue to play the backup role in 2022?
Tony Pollard ADP | Is he worth his current price in fantasy drafts?
As we draw closer to the prime draft season for fantasy football, Pollard currently has an ADP of 84, coming off the board as the RB31. For a comparison, Pollard is going 54 picks later than Ezekiel Elliott as the RB16. PFN’s 2022 fantasy football redraft rankings tell a similar story but do show more optimism, with Pollard currently the RB24 and Elliott at RB14 (ADP24). But be sure to check back as rankings will fluctuate between now and the start of the season.
Fantasy managers have clamored for Pollard to take the RB1 responsibilities in Dallas. I get it too. When on the field, he looks by far the more explosive rusher. Pollard was one of the most efficient running backs in the NFL, averaging 5.5 yards per carry and 6.2 yards per touch.
Amongst RBs with at least 100 carries, Pollard finished fourth in yards after contact per attempt (3.6), behind only Rashaad Penny, Nick Chubb, and Jonathan Taylor. That’s some pretty serious company.
Pollard is unquestionably talented enough to be the starting RB of the Cowboys. But it doesn’t matter what I or anyone else thinks. The only opinion that matters are the ones inside “The Star” down in DFW. And right now, this is still Elliott’s backfield. When/if Elliott misses time, Pollard is a must-start for fantasy. He is also worth rostering not only for those who selected Elliott but to any fantasy manager.
I am in agreement on Pollard as my RB24, as fantasy managers are drafting a rock-solid RB3 who should see more receiving utilization in 2022. Although, I am skeptical about the slot role which has been discussed. He is not someone I would want to rely on as my RB1 or RB2 outside of extreme Zero RB roster constructions. But as a Flex and bye week option, I love Pollard for fantasy in 2022.
Tony Pollard’s projected fantasy value in 2022
Pollard has plenty of momentum coming off career-highs in rushing attempts (130) and targets (46). He was also first in yards per route run at the position and was the RB37 in fantasy points per game last season. While that might not sound impressive, it is when you remember how little he was used inside the red zone.
Last season alone, Elliott saw 68% of the snaps inside the red zone (compared to Pollard at 26%) and was 17th in the league in red-zone carries at 35. Pollard had just 15 and only two inside the 5-yard line to Elliott’s 12.
When Elliott is healthy, he’s their go-to guy. In the 30 active games where both are available (2020-2021), Pollard averages 7.5 carries, 2.53 targets, 51.24 yards, and 8.12 PPR/game. Elliott, on the other hand, averages 15.1 rushes, 4.5 targets, 81.26 yards, and 15.76 PPR/game.
Elliott is also healthy. His struggles last year have been attributed to a torn PCL he sustained in Week 4. From Weeks 1-6, Elliott was the RB8 in expected fantasy points (16.1). Yet after the bye week and through the end of the season, he was the RB18 (13.9).
Even with him injured, Dallas still felt he was healthy enough to warrant 237 carries and come in seventh in targets amongst RBs with 65. What will this split look like in 2022 when each is healthy?
From an efficiency standpoint, it’s not even close between the two. However, each caps the other’s upside. Where Pollard can gain an edge is the lack of receiving depth at receiver. Sure, CeeDee Lamb is a top-six wideout. But after him, it’s several uncertainties. I love Jalen Tolbert, but he is an unproven rookie. Michael Gallup is still a way out from returning, as is James Washington. Right now, it looks like Noah Brown and Simi Fehoko will have to factor in early in 2022.
That’s where Pollard can really make his mark, as it’s one of his best traits, even going back to Memphis. This, along with any increase in carries, is why it becomes easy to become enamored with Pollard’s fantasy upside and why his ADP is as high as it is.