Cleveland Browns running back Nick Chubb has been a safe, reliable fantasy option for his entire career. What is Chubb’s current ADP, and should fantasy football managers draft him at that price?
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Nick Chubb ADP | Is he worth his current price in fantasy drafts?
Chubb’s ADP is around 18th overall as the RB10. Finally, it appears fantasy managers are drafting Chubb at an appropriate price.
If we’re talking pure NFL ability, Chubb is one of my favorite running backs in the league. He’s incredibly gifted as a runner. Chubb is also a far better receiver than he gets credit for — he’s just not used in the passing game.
With Chubb now falling toward at least the middle of the second round, if not later, he’s a far more appealing pick. At that price, I don’t necessarily need 20 PPR fantasy points per game in upside from whoever I take.
Chubb as my RB2 or my RB1 paired with an elite wide receiver is perfectly fine. If I go wide receiver in the early part of the first round, and Chubb is there in the 2.09-2.12 range, I may push that button. But only if there isn’t someone with more upside available.
Nick Chubb’s projected fantasy value in 2022
I don’t think I’ve ever wanted to select Chubb in fantasy drafts. As a rookie, he was behind Carlos Hyde to start the season. Entering his sophomore season, I just didn’t buy him as a first-round pick. Then, watching how he and Kareem Hunt were utilized, I was completely out at cost. Chubb is a great example of how fantasy differs from reality.
Since 2019, Chubb has had an ADP at or near the first round. Here are his ppg averages over the past three seasons: 15.9, 17.3, and 15.4. All three of those seasons put him inside the top 10. Chubb is never going to let you down.
So, why am I never interested?
Chubb’s perception is always greater than reality. It is impossible for a running back to have RB1-overall or league-winning upside without receiving work. Since Chubb’s first full season as a starter in 2019, he’s averaged around 90 rushing yards per game and about 10 touchdowns per season.
2020 was a truly special year for Chubb. Although injuries limited him to just 12 games, he scored 12 times in those 12 games while maintaining his usual rushing yards per game average. He didn’t even sniff 20 ppg.
Therein lies the issue with Chubb. He lacks a ceiling. Fantasy managers happily select him inside the top 10-12 at the position every year. They draft Chubb at his absolute ceiling.
Now, to be fair, Chubb’s range of outcomes is relatively narrow. At worst, he’ll be a mid-RB2. He’s an extremely safe pick. But in the first or second round, I really want to try and draft potential difference-making players. Chubb will never be that guy unless his receiving usage increases — we’ve seen no evidence that will occur.
Impact of the Browns’ depth chart on Chubb’s fantasy value
Chubb had a fantastic season as a runner in 2021. He was fourth in yards per touch at 5.8, third in evaded tackles per touch at 37%, and fifth in yards created per touch at 3.65. The man is a savant running the football. Unfortunately, we need more in fantasy. At least when it comes to early-round running backs.
Despite being the clear lead runner, Chubb had just a 51.7% snap share last season. He averaged just 10.4 routes run per game. Even in a season where Kareem Hunt played in only eight games, Chubb’s receiving work remained at its usual levels. If anything, his production in that area dipped, as his 12.4 receiving yards per game were his lowest since his rookie season.
Chubb’s receiving ceiling doesn’t exist even in the event of a Kareem Hunt injury
Last season, even during the games Hunt missed, Chubb did not take over the receiving role. That job went to D’Ernest Johnson. Chubb averaged 1.78 targets per game. In total, he finished with the same 25 targets as Johnson, a third-string running back.
Chubb is now heading into his fifth NFL season. He will turn 27 years old this year. Chubb is not about to become this prolific receiver. He is who he is. This is an elite runner whose team has no interest in throwing him the ball. He’s averaged under 200 receiving yards per season and just 2.08 targets per game in his career.
The Browns traded for Deshaun Watson and signed Jacoby Brissett to be their starter for the duration of Watson’s suspension. Both Brissett and Watson are more mobile than Baker Mayfield, which will only further decrease the running backs’ involvement in the passing game.
Without receiving work, Chubb’s ceiling is capped at 16-17 ppg. That makes him an RB1, but one without any real upside. It’s mostly the reason we’re a bit lower than ADP on Chubb, ranking him as our consensus RB14 in our 2022 fantasy football rankings. I’m fine drafting Chubb if he falls a little below ADP, but I won’t aggressively target him in fantasy drafts.