If you’re planning to make prop bets or any other wagers on season-long NFL player production, here are our suggested 2022 bets for some key Philadelphia Eagles’ playmakers. All prop bets are based on FanDuel over/unders, featuring Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, and DeVonta Smith.
Top Philadelphia Eagles prop bets for 2022
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on 10 years of NFL research analyzing the correlation between preseason expectations and outcomes. Age, durability, shifting personnel, schedule, and other factors help shape these assessments.
Jalen Hurts
Jalen Hurts turned 24 years old in August and has only 19 regular-season starts under his belt. His second-year leap in 2021 was remarkable, as he helped lead Philly to the postseason despite finishing 21st in passing yards and tied for 23rd in passing TDs. Four of his five top targets were 23 years old or younger. To say that he has nowhere to go but up would be an understatement.
Even if Hurts doesn’t improve as a passer, the offseason trade for A.J. Brown has transformed this passing attack from “sub-par” to “very good.” And if Hurts makes a Year 3 jump . . . well, it’s easy to see how one of the league’s top-three dual-threat QBs could be in MVP conversations. Betting against Hurts this season means he won’t improve. I’m not buying that assumption.
Passing yards: Over 3,450.5
Passing TDs: Over 22.5
Interceptions: Under 11.5
A.J. Brown
Brown’s prop bets are fascinating. On the one hand, his lofty projections appear to be safe. He’s an ascending 25-year-old talent who’s thrived despite never exceeding 106 targets in a season. Last year, he was on a 17-game pace for 82 catches, 1,136 receiving yards, and seven scores. Apparently, the sky’s the limit.
However, in Philadelphia, he’s joined the most capable receiving corps he’s ever been a part of. In his rookie 2019 campaign, Brown’s fiercest competition was an underperforming Corey Davis, Jonnu Smith, Adam Humphries, and Tajae Sharpe.
[bet-promo id=”174860″ ]In 2020, Davis stepped up, while everyone else stepped back, making the Titans almost entirely a two-man passing attack. Last year, Brown was the clear No. 1 wideout ahead of an injury-riddled Julio Jones, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Chester Rogers, and Anthony Firkser.
And it seems the props market has over-weighted the latter issues — that Brown will regress alongside Smith and Dallas Goedert. Because of this, we have to lean in the other direction, as Brown’s realistic floor is right along his current over/unders.
Receiving yards: Over 1,000.5
Receiving TDs: Over 6.5
DeVonta Smith
Last summer, DeVonta Smith and Ja’Marr Chase were neck-and-neck in ADP. Two rookies. Two breakout candidates. But only Chase produced a historically high stat line. Smith, meanwhile, struggled through inconsistent production with a quarterback whose experience was closer to a rookie’s than a second-year player’s.
If we believe in Hurts’ continued development, then we can believe in Smith’s, regardless of Brown’s presence. Smith entered the league as a franchise WR, so now the Eagles have two of them.
This is not a zero-sum game situation. The addition of Brown does not mean a subtraction for Smith. In my view, it merely means an elevation for Hurts. In other words, we should be able to bank on Smith replicating or exceeding his rookie numbers. While he doesn’t have a TD prop available, his receiving-yard prop is too generous to ignore.
Receiving yards: Over 875.5