Buffalo Bills running back Devin Singletary became a near-every down back over the final few weeks and postseason in 2021, proving to have some fantasy football value. What is Singletary’s current ADP, and should managers select him at that price in fantasy drafts?
Devin Singletary ADP | Is he worth his current price in fantasy drafts?
Singletary’s ADP is around 90th overall. He’s being drafted as the RB31. I’ve been above consensus on Singletary since I first crafted my rankings in May, and I remain ahead of consensus today. While Singletary is our consensus RB31, I have him slightly ahead at RB27.
We know Singletary won’t be the top-five running back we saw down the stretch of the 2021 season and in the playoffs. But at his ADP, he doesn’t have to be. It’s a bit jarring to see the fantasy community as a whole not even value him as an RB2.
It can admittedly be tough to push the button on Singletary in fantasy drafts based on who goes around him. He goes in the same general area as a bunch of the sophomore wide receivers. That’s a tough spot to take a running back. But relative to RBs as a whole, Singletary is a bit undervalued.
Devin Singletary’s projected fantasy value in 2022
Ahead of the 2021 season, the general outlook on Bills RBs was just to avoid them. Singletary seemed to be falling out of favor with the Bills, as evidenced by them drafting Zack Moss just one year after Singletary. This was despite Singletary averaging 12.3 PPR fantasy points per game as a rookie.
Singletary averaged just 9 ppg as a sophomore. Thus, he became a relative afterthought entering his third year. Singletary bounced back with 11.6 ppg, but the story of his 2021 campaign was much more complicated than that. Singletary was never just a low RB2.
From Weeks 1-13, Singletary averaged 8.3 ppg. During that timeframe, he hit double-digit fantasy points just four times — the same number of times he ended up being unstartable due to scoring under 6 fantasy points.
Then, in Week 14, seemingly without notice, something shifted. The Bills committed to Singletary as their feature back. From Weeks 14-18, he had one of the most impressive runs in recent memory. He scored at least 14.9 fantasy points in every game. He didn’t hit 14.9 fantasy points once in the first 13 weeks. Singletary also averaged about an 80% snap share. Most importantly for fantasy managers, he averaged 19.7 ppg and was an elite RB1 down the stretch.
Impact of the Bills’ depth chart on Singletary’s fantasy value
Despite training camp reports that Moss has been performing well, he’s not a relevant part of this offense. I don’t expect him to be active on game days. If he is, then I guess Duke Johnson will be the odd man out. Either way, this is a two-man show featuring Singletary and rookie second-rounder James Cook.
The drafting of Cook is further evidence that Singletary is not going to be heavily involved as a receiver. Of course, we prefer our running backs to catch passes. However, as we get later into fantasy drafts, we often have to choose between backs that catch passes or backs that get goal-line work. Singletary is the latter.
The majority of Singletary’s production last season came through rushing and scoring. Although, it’s worth noting Singletary did have five games with 5+ targets. Nevertheless, the Bills’ two key offseason moves suggest they want a pure passing-down back. Cook recorded an 8.2% college target share, and Johnson averaged 4.5 targets per game during his five seasons in Cleveland.
Singletary should be able to maintain his rushing role over James Cook
Fantasy managers love the new hotness. In Buffalo, that’s Cook. While Cook is a good receiver, he has no history of being a three-down back. He saw double-digit carries just five times in his four years at Georgia. His career-high in carries in a single game is 12. Simply put, the man was not drafted to run the ball.
Dalvin Cook’s brother will most likely play ahead of Johnson and be the team’s primary receiving back. Of course, this isn’t great for Singletary’s ceiling, but his price reflects that. Plus, it’s not like the Bills throw to their running backs much anyway. Last season, they targeted running backs just 14.6% of the time, the fourth-lowest rate in the league.
Singletary can still be productive this season and should be the best fantasy RB on the Bills. He just lacks the ceiling of the guy we saw down the stretch in 2021. But given his ADP, Singletary has to be a low RB2 to provide fantasy managers with a positive return on investment. I’m confident he can do that.