When you look at Jared Goff’s fantasy football performances during his career, things appear to be heading in the wrong direction. A tough first year in Detroit saw him finish as a borderline QB2 last season. Goff’s ADP in 2022 fantasy drafts appears to reflect the concerns that come from that first year with the Detroit Lions. But can he change the narrative and provide value to fantasy managers?
Jared Goff ADP | Is he worth his current price in fantasy drafts?
In terms of the quarterback position for fantasy, it’s best to look at ADP in the context of the position rather than overall. The reason is that the format of either 1QB or Superflex hugely influences where a QB is taken. However, their value relative to the rest of the position remains largely the same. Goff’s ADP is currently QB27. On some sites, he is going as high as QB26, while on others, he does not even have an ADP.
In 1QB leagues, Goff is largely going undrafted and is being selected as a borderline QB2 in Superflex formats. Can Goff provide value on that ADP in Superflex formats, and is he a sleeper in 1QB leagues?
Goff’s projected fantasy value in 2022
Last year was a really messy one for the Detroit Lions’ passing game, and Goff’s fantasy returns suffered for it. Goff had his own concerns and poor performances, but the situation around him certainly did not help. D’Andre Swift, Jamaal Williams, Quintez Cephus, and T.J. Hockenson all missed at least four games, and Tyrell Williams missed the entire season. Amon-Ra St. Brown developed through the year but did not really feature heavily until the last six weeks.
That left Goff targeting Kalif Raymond, Josh Reynolds, KhaDarel Hodge, Cephus, and Trinity Benson at different points during the year. Those pass catchers are all talented players, but they are a tier down from what we expect Goff to have at his disposal this year.
St. Brown should feature heavily from the outset, and he is joined on the outside by DJ Chark. Then the Lions should get Jameson Williams returning later in the season to provide an added boost to the pass catchers down the stretch. There is no real surprise that three of Goff’s best five performances last season came in the four games where St. Brown was a larger part of the offense.
The injury to Cephus was also underrated for the impact on Goff. In the five games he played with Cephus, Goff averaged 5 more fantasy points per game than he did in the nine without him. The second-year receiver caught 15 of his 22 targets for 204 yards and two touchdowns. He provided a deep threat to the offense and will be an X-factor among the other talented pass catchers on this offense.
Injuries, injuries, and more injuries
The word injury sums up the Lions’ offense in 2022. Goff himself missed three games and played through an obvious injury in at least one other. Then there are the 13 missed games by Hockenson, Jamaal Williams, and Swift. Cephus missed 12 games, and Jameson Williams wasn’t with the offense yet. That is a total of 42 games missed by what were expected to be the top five weapons in the offense.
Interestingly, Goff actually performed better for fantasy managers without Swift and Hockenson in the lineup. The sample size is small, with Goff only playing in three games without Hockenson or Swift. Furthermore, those games all coincide with the breakout for St. Brown in the last month to six weeks of the season.
It was Jamaal Williams whose absence actually had the biggest impact on Goff’s fantasy returns. In the 10 games with Williams, Goff averaged over 19 fantasy points per game. Without Williams, that dropped to below 14. He may have only been targeted 28 times, but he caught 26 of them and provided a safety blanket for whoever was under center.
The question now is can the Lions get better injury luck, or is this a product of their players? Swift has missed seven games through two years, Hockenson has missed nine in three, and Williams has not played a full season since 2018. Chark, Cephus, and Jameson Williams are coming off serious injuries last year. If the injury bug bites again, it could severely limit Goff’s ceiling.
Should you draft Jared Goff in 2022?
When you look at PFN’s 2022 fantasy PPR rankings, Goff presents a slight value on his ADP. He is currently ranked 24th at the position as a borderline QB2. Moreover, BJ Rudell believes Goff could surprise fantasy managers this season.
In Superflex leagues, Goff becomes a solid borderline QB2/3 type of player at his current ADP. In most leagues, you can comfortably get him as a QB3, and his presence there gives you options when building your roster. He has legitimate QB2 upside this year, so if you want to take risks at the position earlier in the draft in terms of a player like Trey Lance, then Goff could be an intriguing safety blanket.
Additionally, suppose you wanted to focus on building other areas of your roster in the opening rounds and not target two QBs early. In that case, Goff could be a solid QB2 that can supplement a strong all-around roster built in the early rounds.
When it comes to 1QB drafts, Goff is a player I do not have on my target list. If I want to go last-round QB, there are others around him, such as Daniel Jones or Davis Mills, that I might target in terms of a QB1 ceiling. While we have seen Goff be a QB1 before, this offense is very different. In 1QB formats, Goff is merely a streaming option to open the year.