New England Patriots running back Damien Harris established himself as the Patriots’ RB1 last season and performed admirably in fantasy football. Is that still the case in 2022? What is Harris’ current ADP, and should managers select him at that price in fantasy drafts?
Damien Harris ADP | Is he worth his current price in fantasy drafts?
Harris’ ADP is around 72nd overall. He’s being drafted as the RB26. The tricky part about ADP data is sometimes values move too quickly for the ADP to adjust fast enough. I have a feeling that’s what’s going on with Harris. The data just can’t seem to keep up with Harris’ falling ADP.
There have been training camp rumblings of Rhamondre Stevenson pushing Harris for the RB1 role. Most importantly, Stevenson appears to be the frontrunner to replace James White as the passing down back. Don’t be surprised if you see Stevenson drafted ahead of Harris in your upcoming fantasy drafts.
Given Harris’ offensive role and how he scores his points, he is not someone I’m targeting this season. Harris relies on rushing volume and touchdowns. It’s entirely possible he sees a reduction in both this season.
Damien Harris’ projected fantasy value in 2022
After essentially redshirting his rookie season, Harris had a much better sophomore year but still only finished as a fantasy RB3. In his third year, Harris broke out. He was one of the best values of the 2021 season.
Harris eclipsed 1,000 yards from scrimmage and averaged 14 PPR fantasy points per game. He finished as a mid RB1 as 15 touchdowns bolstered his production.
Despite this being a recommendation to fade Harris, he actually was pretty good last season. Harris averaged 4.6 yards per carry and had the 12th-most red-zone carries in the league. He benefited from a run-heavy script that saw the Patriots run the ball 47.8% of the time. It was the seventh-highest rate in the league (but was also a bit skewed by the Wind Bowl in Week 13, where Mac Jones threw the ball just three times).
Harris is definitely a good runner, but he was essentially touchdown or bust last season. He just happened to score a lot of them. Harris averages 16.3 ppg in games where he scores against just 6.1 ppg in games where he doesn’t. The problem for Harris is he doesn’t have passing game usage to boost his floor.
Last season, Harris saw just a 4.5% target share. He averaged 1.1 receptions for 8.8 yards per game in 2021. If Harris saw a mere 33% drop in touchdown efficiency, with all else being equal, he becomes a mid RB3.
Impact of the Patriots’ depth chart on Damien Harris’ fantasy value
Harris should still open the season as the Patriots’ RB1. However, he comes with a ton of risk. We know he’s not going to be used as a receiver. That role will go to either Stevenson or the newly signed Ty Montgomery. The problem is Harris has threats to his rushing work as well.
Stevenson could take Harris’ job. After all, Stevenson played quite well last season when filling in for Harris, carrying the ball 133 times for 605 yards. The Patriots may just like him better. But even if he doesn’t, the Patriots did a lot at running back this offseason besides signing Montgomery. They spent two Day 3 draft picks on Pierre Strong and Kevin Harris.
Although the rookies are unlikely to make an immediate impact, similar to how little Harris mattered as a rookie, the Patriots drafting them at all isn’t exactly a positive for Harris’ fantasy outlook.
The Patriots have no allegiance to Harris or any running back. This has been their approach to the position for nearly two decades. From Corey Dillon to Laurence Maroney to Benjarvus Green-Ellis to Stevan Ridley to Shane Vereen to LeGarrette Blount to Dion Lewis to Sony Michel — none of these guys really mattered for more than three seasons.
The Patriots have always cycled through running backs relatively quickly, and it looks like Harris will be no different. Harris is in the final year of his rookie deal, and it sure doesn’t appear as though the Patriots have any intention of extending him. It would not surprise me at all if they turned to Stevenson — or one of Pierre Strong and Kevin Harris — as their lead back at some point.
These concerns are why we are lower than ADP on Harris, ranking him as our consensus RB36. As a result, I am out on Harris at his ADP in 2022 fantasy drafts.