The first three years of Daniel Jones’ career did not provide the fantasy football value we would have hoped for from a quarterback selected inside the top 10 of the NFL draft. However, with a coaching change in New York, let’s examine Jones’ current ADP in fantasy football drafts and whether he’s a value there in redraft formats.
Daniel Jones ADP | Is he worth his current price in fantasy drafts?
When it comes to quarterbacks, it’s best to look at their ADP in the context of the position as opposed to overall. The reason is that the format of either 1QB or Superflex hugely influences where a QB is taken, but their value relative to the rest of the position remains largely the same. Jones’ current ADP is QB28, with a range between QB25 and QB30 depending on the site.
Therefore, in 1QB leagues, Jones is largely going undrafted, while he’s being taken as a borderline QB2 in Superflex formats. The difference in format is huge for whether Jones is worth his current price, but let’s examine what we can expect from him in 2022 first.
Daniel Jones’ projected fantasy value in 2022
Through the first three years of his career, Jones’ finishing value in terms of overall points at the position has been QB24, QB24, and QB27 in 2019, 2020, and 2021, respectively. That value is largely reflective of his current cost. However, when we look on a per-game basis, there is more to the story.
In his rookie season, Jones started 12 games. He also made an appearance in a 13th but played just five snaps in a blowout loss. Ignoring that brief appearance in Week 1 of his rookie season, Jones scored 215.8 fantasy points at an average of 17.98 fantasy points per game. That number was good enough to finish as the QB12 on a per-game basis.
Unfortunately, Jones has not repeated that success. After a change in coaches following his rookie season, Jones could only average 12.9 fantasy points per game in 2020 and 15.1 ppg in 2021. Those per-game outputs led to finishes as the QB32 in 2020 and the QB19 last season.
This season, Jones sees another coaching change, with former-Buffalo Bills OC Brian Daboll now in charge. Daboll has been credited with the development of Josh Allen, and hopefully, he can help Jones improve on the first three years. The addition of a further weapon in Wan’Dale Robinson, the return to full health of Saquon Barkley, and improvements on the offensive line can only hope to aid that improvement.
Injuries provide a concern
As the numbers from the past three years demonstrate, Jones is a better per-game fantasy producer than his overall fantasy point total indicates. Part of the reason is that Jones has missed a total of 11 games in his three-year career.
In 2019, he missed two games with a high ankle sprain before missing games in 2020 due to hamstring and ankle sprains. Last season, Jones’ year ended following Week 12 due to a neck injury. While injuries can be tough to predict, projecting Jones to play all 17 games is not realistic at this point.
The impact of QB injuries is bigger in Superflex than it would be in 1QB formats. In Superflex, it can be hard to find a replacement QB on the waiver wire. Most of the time, the best scenario is to look to the backup.
For Jones, that backup is Tyrod Taylor. Thus, in Superflex formats, you could replace Jones with Taylor without facing significant risk. In 1QB formats, there are usually a handful of week-to-week streaming options you could turn to.
Should you draft Jones in 2022?
Looking at the two formats, in 1QB leagues, Jones is essentially a free selection in the final round of 12-team drafts. If you believe in taking your QB in the last round, Jones is a somewhat intriguing option, but there are a lot of risks involved.
You should be able to find a safer floor with a similar upside at that point in the draft. Alternatively, just a couple of rounds earlier in 12-team 1QB leagues, you can often get the likes of Derek Carr or Kirk Cousins, who are significantly safer.
If you feel strongly that Jones can take a step forward under Daboll, then selecting him late in 1QB leagues has one benefit. In that format, you can usually find an option to stream on waivers most weeks. Therefore, you could draft Jones as an upside play and then stream your way through if it doesn’t pan out. It’s certainly risky, and for as high as I am on Jones this year, leaving a 1QB draft with him as my only quarterback is not something I would look to do in my leagues.
Superflex is where Jones really comes into play. We saw he has top-12 upside on a per-game basis in 2019. Now he has an upgrade in coach, who has proven success developing a first-round talent at the position. Therefore, waiting to take a second QB and then targeting Jones in the QB20-24 range is a strategy that could provide intriguing dividends. Jones’ season-long floor has been shown to be a QB2, and that is where you can draft him.
If you do go down this route, then it would be advisable to try and get a high-floor QB3. A player such as Jared Goff — who my colleague BJ Rudell discussed in the PFN Fantasy Football Draft Kit — or Carson Wentz could make an interesting option to pair with Jones. Jones currently ranks 20th in our 2022 fantasy PPR rankings, indicating he’s at least worth his current ADP in drafts.