Brian Robinson looked set to be a fantasy football darling in 2022 until a robbery-gone-wrong changed the path of his rookie season. Now with uncertainty over when he might return to the field, Robinson’s value is in flux. What is Robinson’s current ADP, and does he present a potential fantasy value at his current price in fantasy football drafts?
Brian Robinson ADP | Is he worth his current price in fantasy drafts?
Robinson’s current ADP in redraft fantasy football leagues is outside of the top 120 overall in all formats. His ADP is a couple of rounds higher in non-PPR and half-PPR than it is in full-PPR. In all three formats, Robinson is being selected in the region of RB50 off the board. However, following his off-field incident, that ADP is changing almost daily.
Robinson’s ADP is hard to gauge. Unless sites update their ADP on a rolling three-day average, it will be hard to be sure what is accurate. Unfortunately, when it comes to deciding whether to draft Robinson, managers are somewhat flying blind.
Brian Robinson’s projected fantasy value in 2022
Robinson appeared to be trending to be the top back on the Washington Commanders’ depth chart coming out of the preseason. That was setting him up for a potentially fantastic season in 2022 and making him a tremendous value to anyone who drafted earlier in the summer. He was flying up the ADP lists, and then the incident occurred.
Robinson was shot in the leg twice during a reported carjacking. He was taken to the hospital and had surgery on non-life threatening injuries. Robinson was then seen a few days later on crutches in the Commanders’ building. He also made the 53-man roster in the final cutdowns. In all likelihood, Robinson will start the season on an injury list that allows him to return during the year. At which point, the Commanders’ backfield could get very confusing.
Following the 2022 NFL Draft, head coach Ron Rivera spoke about using Robinson to take the pressure off of Gibson and giving the rookie the responsibility of getting the tougher yards. This could mean Robinson gets featured more heavily in short-yardage and potentially goal-line situations upon his return. Therefore, Robinson could average more than the 3.5 rush attempts per game that we saw from Jaret Patterson in 2021.
Last year, Gibson had 43 attempts inside the red zone, 25 attempts inside the 10-yard line, and 12 attempts inside the 5-yard line. Meanwhile, Patterson had six, two, and one, respectively. Jonathan Williams had four, three, and two.
If Robinson takes Patterson’s red-zone work from 2021 and gets even a 50% share of Gibson’s work, that could be extremely important for his 2022 fantasy value. Washington scored 13 red-zone rushing touchdowns last year, and Gibson had seven of them. He also scored five of the nine accomplished inside the 5.
Could injuries open the door for a late-season surge?
Gibson has played 30 of the first 33 games in his two-year career. However, his bill of health is not entirely clean. He missed two games as a rookie with a toe injury. He then played through a stress fracture in his shin in 2021 and dealt with a calf injury and a toe injury during the season.
Gibson’s Week 17 absence in 2021 came due to being placed on the COVID/reserve list ahead of that game rather than injury. So he’s only missed two games due to injury in his NFL career. Nevertheless, the injuries do seem to be piling up. Gibson already dealt with a minor hamstring strain in OTAs.
The last two years combined have seen Gibson rank seventh in the league in carries and eighth in total opportunities (targets + carries). All of this points toward him potentially seeing less work in 2022 than he did in the previous two years.
The problem for Robinson is that often in these situations — getting snaps and touches to spell another back — the fantasy impact is a bigger negative on the lead back than a positive one for the person getting the touches. Now, if those touches come in the red zone and near the goal line, it becomes a slightly different matter because each touch inside the 5 or 10-yard line is higher leverage in terms of potential fantasy outcomes compared to those elsewhere on the field.
The bigger picture is, with these injuries mounting up, could Washington be more open to sitting and resting Gibson if they know they can rely on Robinson? Did Gibson play through injuries last year because Patterson was not enough of a dual-threat weapon?
Robinson impressed early in training camp with his versatility, which could allow him to spell Gibson upon his return even more than the Commanders first thought.
Should you draft Robinson in 2022?
Robinson currently ranks outside the top 50 at the RB position in our 2022 fantasy PPR rankings. While that is similar to Robinson’s ADP range at the position, he does rank just inside the top 170 overall. Therefore, as a group, we’re slightly higher on Robinson than the average drafter. In PPR, where his ADP is lowest, we’re considerably higher than his current drafted range.
In the 14th or 15th round of 12-team drafts, you’re looking for potential upside with your selections. Robinson has that in abundance.
With Gibson on the field, he has potential TD upside if the comment from Rivera about Robinson taking short-yardage pressure off Gibson relates to the red zone and the goal line. However, that production can be difficult to predict, and that short-yardage role tends to offer more upside in Best Ball formats where lineups are set based retrospectively rather than predictively.
The upside for Robinson is in the role we saw Patterson play when Gibson missed time. McKissic may be second on the depth chart, but he’s unlikely to be the lead back if Gibson were to miss significant time. That role was always likely to pass to either Robinson or Patterson. Right now, Robinson is in the driver’s seat, and that provides him with tremendous fantasy value at his current ADP in 12-team leagues.
Even in deeper leagues, the potential of 5+ rush attempts per game and goal-line work means Robinson can have standalone fantasy value in 2022. In those deeper formats, you’re looking to maximize opportunities on a weekly basis. The current role many project for Robinson means he will offer those weekly opportunities, but he also has tremendous upside if he does have to fill in as the full-time starter in the backfield.
To read more on Robinson’s outcome variables for fantasy managers in the 2022 NFL season, subscribe to our Fantasy Football Draft Kit at PFN Pass.