One of the more underrated wide receivers in the NFL and fantasy football, New York Jets WR Braxton Berrios projects to be a late-round pick in 2022 as his fantasy outlook suggests the added competition for targets could hamper his upside. With the NFL season and fantasy drafts closing in, what is Berrios’ fantasy outlook in 2022, and could he prove to be a value at his current ADP?
Braxton Berrios’ fantasy outlook for 2022
Believe it or not, Berrios is worth a second look in 2022 fantasy football drafts. Now that doesn’t mean he’ll have Day 1 relevance. Instead, Berrios is likely to find more stable value come the middle of the season should an injury take place on the roster. But don’t discount Zach Wilson’s BFF from your list of draft-eligible players for fantasy.
Berrios, who caught 46 passes on 65 targets for 431 yards and two touchdowns last year, had his best season as a pro in 2021 for the Jets. In turn, New York rewarded Berrios with a two-year, $12 million deal with $7 million fully guaranteed during free agency. Last year’s WR65, a quick glance at Berrios’ numbers would suggest not needing to take a second look. However, you’d be missing some intriguing information.
Where Berrios found value was when an injury took place. Particularly, in Weeks 16 and 17, when Jamison Crowder missed time. In Week 16, Berrios commanded a 23% target share and ran a route on 88% of the Jets’ passing plays. He was even more active in Week 17, finishing the day with eight receptions on 12 targets (35% target share) for 65 yards and two touchdowns, including one rushing. That week, Berrios was the WR5 in PPR (25.7), one spot ahead of Cooper Kupp.
By no means do I feel Berrios will turn this into a substantial role in 2022. What it does suggest, however, is if, given the opportunity, the Jets feel more than confident in Berrios’ skills to be an integral part of the passing attack. It will likely take an injury for Berrios to crack the starting roster, but if there is an injury, he’ll be on the shortlist of waiver wire targets for fantasy.
How the New York Jets’ depth chart impacts Braxton Berrios’ fantasy projection for the season
A quick glance at the Jets’ depth chart shows you they had a fantastic offseason. Not only did they hold onto their key players, but they made improvements in both free agency and the draft, most notably with Breece Hall and No. 10 overall pick Garrett Wilson.
At 6’0″ and roughly 190 pounds, Wilson has the makings of an elite option with skills reminding some of Stefon Diggs. Wilson is almost violent with his jab step. He uses quick, piston-like short steps, then explodes. I don’t foresee Wilson joining the list of A.J. Brown, Justin Jefferson, or Ja’Marr Chase as rookie breakout receivers. But Wilson is going to be special in the NFL — it might just take an extra year.
Joining Wilson is last year’s rookie phenom, Elijah Moore. Moore did get off to a bit of a slow start as he fought for playing time and snaps with Crowder. But once he broke through, Moore was sensational. From Weeks 6-13, Moore was the WR8 in PPR, posting 35 receptions on 57 targets for 472 yards and five touchdowns (17.7 PPR points/game).
While Moore only ran a route on 47% of the Jets’ passing plays, he was targeted on 24% of them. As such, an increase in opportunities could lead to a substantial statistical boost. This especially holds true when examining Moore’s final two games of 2021.
With him healthy and Zach Wilson back from his knee injury, Moore saw 33.9% of the Jets’ targets in Weeks 12-13, while more than 40% of his receptions gained 15+ yards. To me, Moore is the WR1 in terms of targets and the one I’m more likely to draft over Garrett Wilson and certainly Corey Davis and the forgotten Denzel Mims.
However, none of this matters unless Zach Wilson improves at QB. He struggled as a rookie, which is to be expected. But the Jets hoped for more than 2,334 yards, a 9:11 TD-to-INT ratio, and a 55.6% completion percentage.
I do believe we’ll see an improvement in Wilson and the Jets as a whole. We can’t forget this was also Robert Saleh’s rookie season as a head coach. Volume shouldn’t be a problem as the Jets were No. 2 in overall pass rate (63%) and threw the ball 55% of the time in neutral game scripts (19th). Assuming this type of volume keeps up and Zach Wilson improves, there should be room for Berrios to carve out some type of role but maybe not enough to find a spot on your roster in 12-team leagues.
If Wilson does take the next step forward, we could see multiple fantasy-relevant players — including Berrios — on the Jets roster in 2022. Something I personally am glad to see.
Berrios’ ADP for 2022
With an ADP of 386, Berrios is coming off the boards as the WR108 in PPR formats, placing him well outside the range of draftable players in 12-team fantasy leagues.
In PFN’s 2022 fantasy football redraft rankings, Berrios is higher as the WR98 and 259st overall player, but that is hardly worth writing home about.Be sure to check back, as rankings will fluctuate between now and the start of the season.
Is Berrios going to finish as the WR98, 99, or even 108? No, he’ll be higher than that. The Jets like him. His 24% target rate per route run is 14th amongst WRs with over 100 targets in the last two seasons. You don’t do that by coincidence.
But in this crowded WR room, unless there is an injury, I can’t trust him. I’d much rather let him sit on waivers and snag him if necessary. I will not discount the idea of Berrios being a very sneaky good player at times. Still, I wouldn’t spend a valuable draft pick on him as the Jets are unlikely to support more than two fantasy-relevant receivers.