One of the many NFL wide receivers who changed teams in 2022, New England Patriots WR DeVante Parker projects to be a late-round fantasy football pick in 2022. With the NFL season and fantasy drafts closing in, what is Parker’s fantasy outlook in 2022, and could he prove to be a value at his current ADP in fantasy football drafts?
DeVante Parker’s fantasy outlook for 2022
Parker had a very, well, DeVante Parker-esque season last year. Plenty of weekly volume, missed games, and leaving fantasy managers wishing for more. Recording a 21.9% target share, Parker saw seven or more targets in 70% of his games. He also posted 11+ PPR points in over half of his contests, averaging 14.86 PPR in those games. When he was active, Parker averaged 7.3 targets per game, 33rd amongst WRs. I could just stop here and cherry-pick stats, but that by no means paints a picture of his season.
What I didn’t mention was Parker played in only 10 games due to injuries. That’s how Parker ended up as the WR70 overall and WR46 in points per game (10.4). That is -2.5 FPOE (fantasy points over expectation). His 54.8% reception percentage was the fifth time in his seven-year career below the 60% threshold and the lowest since 2018.
After back-to-back years with 100+ targets, Parker saw only 73 in 2022, recording 40 receptions for 515 yards and two touchdowns. It was the worst statistical season Parker recorded since 2018. Unfortunately, I don’t see it getting that much better.
New England needed a big-bodied receiver to play on the perimeter due to N’Keal Harry failing to live up to expectations. Therefore, the Patriots made a rather rare intra-division trade to acquire the former first-round pick. The issue for Parker is not the team or Mac Jones but philosophy.
A year ago, the Patriots threw at the lowest rate in the entire league in neutral game script situations at just 49%, 8% below league average (57%). Parker’s fantasy value will always depend on finding the end zone as he is not an efficient receiver on a per-target basis.
The problem with this is that when the Patriots are close to the goal line, they rely heavily on the rushing game. During the draft, they further bolstered their rushing attack, drafting G Cole Strange and two more running backs. Parker will have spike weeks in 2022. The difficulty will be trying to guess when those might happen. The odds are Parker will end with a decent statistical season but lacks weekly stability to trust in your starting lineup.
How the Patriots depth chart impacts DeVante Parker’s fantasy projection for the season
The Patriots are a conundrum for fantasy managers in 2022. This isn’t necessarily new, as they have been a team many opt to avoid every year due to the inconsistent usage and headaches that come with investing in this offense. It has traditionally been true at running back where Bill Belichick changes his RB as often as he does hoodies.
At wide receiver, it’s less been about inconsistent usage as it is a general lack of talent. The Patriots have struggled to produce high-end fantasy assets at receiver since Randy Moss. They haven’t had a 1,000-yard receiver since Julian Edelman in 2019 (1,117). Even last year, Jakobi Meyers (WR42), the No. 1 option for Mac Jones, lacked any substantial upside despite seeing 24% of the targets. Meyers averaged just 11 PPR/game on his 126 targets with 83 receptions for 866 yards and two touchdowns.
Outside of Meyers and Parker, the only receivers with an inside track to weekly fantasy relevance, it’s more likely New England’s WRs are better NFL options than one’s fantasy managers should target. Nelson Agholor will compete with rookie Tyquan Thornton, the fastest player at the 2022 NFL Combine, for the over-the-top role, leaving Kendrick Bourne the WR4/5 on the current depth chart, if he makes the 53-man roster.
Parker’s ADP for 2022
With an ADP of 148, Parker is coming off the boards as the WR56 in PPR formats at the moment, placing him towards the end of the 12th round in 12-team fantasy leagues.
In PFN’s 2022 fantasy football redraft rankings, Parker is even lower as the WR73 and 183rd overall ranked player. While PFN’s rankings are a consensus, I am slightly higher as Parker is my WR69 in my rankings and 179th player overall. Be sure to check back, as rankings will fluctuate between now and the start of the season.
Outside of Meyers, who’ll see plenty of volume, it’s hard to be excited about any Patriots receiver. Parker, even when the team’s WR1, has struggled to find consistency. I don’t see 2022 being any different. If he sees 90 targets, I’d consider that a win.
However, due to the low catch rate plus touchdown dependency, I don’t foresee Parker becoming a staple in any fantasy lineups in 2022. This is a situation I would avoid if I could. I’d rather target players like Wan’Dale Robinson, Jahan Dotson, or Van Jefferson, as they have higher odds of finding stable roles for fantasy purposes.