One of the top rookie receivers in the NFL and fantasy football, New York Jets WR Garrett Wilson projects to be a mid-round pick once again as his 2022 fantasy outlook rivals the top rookies in the game. With the NFL season and fantasy drafts closing in, what is Wilson’s fantasy outlook in 2022, and could he prove to be a value at his current ADP in fantasy football drafts?
Garrett Wilson fantasy outlook for 2022
The case could be made that the New York Jets drafted the three highest-ranked players at their individual positions in CB Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner, RB Breece Hall, and Ohio State WR Garrett Wilson.
With Drake London off the board, the Jets were celebrating with Wilson falling to them. At 6’0″ and roughly 190 pounds, he has the makings of an elite option with skills reminding some of Stefon Diggs. Wilson is almost violent with his jab step. He uses quick, piston-like short steps, then explodes. His ability to stack a defender is unquestioned. Wilson’s route running showed polish, even though he didn’t traditionally run a ton of middle-of-the-field routes in the 10-15 aDOT (average depth of target) area.
That did not stop him from being a weapon in the NCAA’s best wide receiver room. Despite lining up with Chris Olave, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Marvin Harrison Jr., Wilson recorded over 1,000 yards on 70 receptions for 12 touchdowns. It backed up what was a sensational — albeit COVID-shortened — 2020 season with Justin Fields as his QB, where Wilson accounted for 34% of OSU’s receiving yards (723) on 27.2% of the receptions (43) while recording a rather high 3.21 YPTPA (yards per team passing attempt).
Whether or not you should be “in” on Wilson depends on how much you believe Zach Wilson will progress in 2022. That’s already off to a rocky start as Wilson is out currently for four to six weeks after undergoing surgery to repair a meniscus tear and a bone he sustained in Week 2 of the preseason, along with a bone bruise. The Jets are likely to start Joe Flacco in Week 1 against the Baltimore Ravens.
To get the most out of his new target, Wilson needs to take significant steps forward. He struggled as a rookie, which is to be expected. But the Jets hoped for more than 2,334 yards, a 9:11 TD-to-INT ratio, and a 55.6% completion percentage.
I don’t foresee Wilson joining the list of A.J. Brown, Justin Jefferson, and Ja’Marr Chase as rookie breakout receivers. He might not even be inside the top three of this class in 2022 with Drake London, Treylon Burks, Skyy Moore, Chris Olave, Jahan Dotson, and Jalen Tolbert. But if you are looking for upside and betting on profiles, Wilson as a low-end WR4 with upside could end up paying off for minimum cost.
How the New York Jets depth chart impacts Garrett Wilson’s fantasy projection for the season
The Jets’ receiving corps is surprisingly deep, but that does not mean overly talented when compared to other teams. Wilson has his BFF in Braxton Berrios, and Corey Davis is entering his second year with the team and hopes to stay healthy. TE C.J. Uzomah will also prove to be a sizeable addition after the Jets got a combined 434 yards from Ryan Griffin and Tyler Kroft.
The real competition will be between Wilson and second-year phenom Elijah Moore. Moore did get off to a bit of a slow start as he fought for playing time and snaps with Jamison Crowder. But once he broke through, Moore was sensational. From Weeks 6-13, Moore was the WR8 in PPR scoring, posting 35 receptions on 57 targets for 472 yards and five touchdowns (17.7 PPR points/game).
While Moore only ran a route on 47% of the Jets’ passing plays, he was targeted on 24% of them. As such, an increase in opportunities could lead to a substantial statistical boost. This especially holds true when examining Moore’s final two games of 2021. With Moore healthy and Zach Wilson back from his knee injury, Moore saw 33.9% of the Jets’ targets in Weeks 12-13, while more than 40% of his receptions gained 15+ yards.
I don’t see Moore going away, and the Jets don’t want that to happen either. While Wilson could lead the Jets in air yards, I feel Moore will best him in target share and receptions. Moore is a sensational player after the catch, with some feeling he has shades of Antonio Brown in his game. While I believe both will have relevance, I’ll let managers draft the rookie while I take the value in Moore.
Wilson’s ADP for 2022
With an ADP of 118, Wilson is coming off the boards as the WR49 in PPR formats at the moment, placing him towards the end of the ninth round in 12-team fantasy leagues.
In PFN’s 2022 fantasy football redraft rankings, Wilson is the WR49, matching his ADP, as the 123rd ranked player. While PFN’s rankings are a consensus, Wison comes in as my WR51 in my rankings and 122nd player overall.
Wilson’s talent, in my opinion, is unquestioned. But his weekly floor could prove to be a bit unstable early on in his rookie season until he and Zach Wilson get in sync. As a talent, Wilson is absolutely worth investing in at his current ADP. The question is whether or not Wilson can support one or multiple fantasy assets. If not, someone is likely to fall below expectations. If I were to bet on who is more stable, that would be Moore, my WR32 (ADP 83).
Wilson is in a very interesting range in my rankings as there are several rookies right around him plus some aging veterans. In his tier are Robert Woods and DeAndre Hopkins, along with former OSU teammate Chris Olave, and fellow rookies Treylon Burks, George Pickens, and Jalen Tolbert.
I can make a case for any of them depending on the roster’s construction but in 2022. They all could be, at worst, their team’s No. 2 option or struggle to find a stable floor. However, given where they are all going in drafts, the cost on draft day is well worth the risk.